Transcript The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy

Adjustment of China Energy Strategic
under the constraint of energy saving
and carbon emission
Yao Xin
July 2010
I. China energy strategy：Follow the
rules of international economic
development and energy consumption
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The dual concerns of energy supply
and demand
The global
economic crisis
A relative surplus of
energy production
The future relative
shortage of energy
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Resource endowment and economic development
can impact energy consumption
Resource
endowment
economic
development
Characteristics
of energy
demand
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Basic rules of international energy consumption
The urbanization and industrialization were
proceeding at the same time
Energy demand reduced every stage
The process of industrialization was shorten
Energy consumption is the rigid
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China's energy consumption must follow the basic
law
Maintai
n the
economi
c
growth
Urban
izati
on
canl
not
be
inter
rupte
d
energy
demand
will
growth
The high-energyconsumption
products for
urbanization only
can be produced
domestic, because of
the population
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China's energy strategy
 A national energy
strategy, is essential
for China. An active
energy policy can
effectively promote
energy efficiency and
ensure energy security.
China currently has no energy strategy
in fact.We need to learn from the
experience and lessons of developed
countries.We will establish China's
long-term energy stratery based on the
full understanding of China's energy
problems.
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II． Environmental constraints in
China
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Current situation of global
greenhouse gas emissions
Economic crisis has affected the progress of reduction
Low conventional energy prices will weaken
the investment in renewable energy. In
fact, a large number of environmental
projects have been canceled in the crisis.
McGuire"Seven Years to Save the Planet"
If greenhouse gases in the 7 years can
not be controlled, the Earth will be
irreversible into a vicious cycle in
2015.
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Current situation of global
greenhouse gas emissions
 The problem is：
Do we have enough time?
What is the key to solving the
problem？
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Developed countries should help
developing countries reduce emissions
Developing countries must participate in global emissions reductions
Developing country
Financial and technical
Developed country
Emissions need to be invested. Developed Countries,
not only from the economic and technological strength,
but also from the history and fairness, should take on
more responsibility to reduce emissions.
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Environmental attitudes in developed
countries
Developed countries must
change their attitude
“I do, I try to
help you”
“I do, you try to do”
“I do, you must do”
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China's environmental strategy
Emission reduction strategies
For the energy and
environment fair
Developing countries can not fully rely
on the help of the developed countries
Developing countries have plenty room
for emission reduction in the development process
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III. Adjustment of China Energy
Strategic under the constraint of
energy saving and carbon emission
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How to achieve sustainable development
demand increase
The most challenging problems of
China in this century are the
future energy and environmental
issues, not the current financial
crisiss.
Environmental
degradation
energy
scarcity
China's
economic
transformation
Unlike
developed
countries,
China's
economic
development
have more
environmental
constraints.
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The low carbon economy transition under
energy and environmental constraints
Energy
conservation
and the
development of
clean energy
China's low-carbon
economy transition
Explore and
practice
low-carbon
economy
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The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
Combined with demand side
management to meet the
energy demand
Carbon dioxide emissions
as a new constraint on
energy strategy
Adjustment
of Energy
Strategy
The power industry
must comply with
the overall strategy
Energy security as a part of
sustainable economic
development
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Combined with demand side management
to meet the energy demand
We combine the demand side management to consider how to satisfy the
energy demand, rather than simply based on the energy supply.
energy demand=energy savings + energy supply
The government can select either supply or saving investment to
minimize the cost of energy demand.
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Carbon dioxide emissions as a new constraint
We change the single constraint to energy growth and energy
structure strategy planning, taking CO2 emission into account to
satisfy the energy demand.
We can get the optimal energy consumption structure, which is the combination of each
kind of the primary energy,considering of the emission constraint
Such as：CO2 Emission= 9 Bton
After considering the affordable capacity of social economy, we can determine an
acceptable energy structure, and further find an optimal combination of primary
energy consumption under the specific constraint of carbon dioxide emission.
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Energy diversification
 Change the only consideration of strategic petroleum
reserve, think energy diversification as a part of
energy security.
energy security= strategic petroleum reserve
+
energy diversification
Development of new energy will protect China's energy
security, diversify energy supply, reduce China's
dependence on other country's oil, in order to ensure the
future competitiveness of the Chinese economy.
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
 Consider the energy
conservation factor to
determine the optimal
energy supply
The optimal objective is
to choose a combination
of supply and saving
with minimized
investment costs to
satisfy the energy
demand.
China's energy conservation
supply curve
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
Sola
r and
According
（Million
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydr Nucl
Win
2020年电力装机结构
the
to the
（%）
（%）
（%）
o（%）
ear（%）
d（%）
tons）
other
optimal
（%）
energy
94.7（No
14.
68.7
5.5
8.0
2.2
0.8
0.6
supply and
planning）
2
emission
90
constraints ，
17.
（Completion
of
60.5
6.2
9.2
3.6
1.7
1.5
we get the
3
the planning）
optimal
energy
17.
88
59.3
6.2
10.1
3.9
1.7
1.5
structure
3
84
53.2
17.
10.
3
0
10.1
5.4
2.5
1.5
厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心
The Adjustment of China Energy Strategy
 According to the energy
structures and their energy costs,
we analyzed the macro-economy
influence by establishing the CGE
of China energy and environment,
and then investigated the
acceptable energy structure.
The macroeconomic impact of emission constraints in2020
E m i s s i o n
GDP(%)
（Million tons）
Employmentenergy consumption per
unit of GDP(%)
(%)
94.7
1.73
1.37
4.32
88
0.05
0.02
-0.63
84
-0.21
-0.35
-3.31
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Thank you!
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