Transcript Dependent variable: Vote

Dependent variable: Vote
Share of two-party vote
Share of popular vote
Share of Electoral college
1-0 variable for Win-lose
Coolidge adjustment
Data run
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Most recent back to…
Smith
Fair – two versions
1948 Full Employment Act
Growth rate
 Three quarters prior
 Per capita
 Real GDP
Inflation
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Average rate over 15 Q
% change in GDP deflator
Inflation-deflation symmetric
War adjustment
Good news
 # of Qs in previous 15 with
g > 3.2
 War adjustment
Duration
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1
2
3
4
5
term = 0
terms = 1
terms = 1.25
terms = 1.50
terms = 1.75
Person
 1 if sitting president running
 Includes VP becoming President
 Ford exception
Party
 1 = Democrat
 -1 = Republican