Transcript 课件七

Sustainable Development
Practice in China
Climate Change and Response
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Climate change is unequivocal;
Impacts in China;
Responsibility and burden sharing
China is a developing country
Efforts made in China for mitigation
Towards adaptation
Summary
According to IPCC report AR4:
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now
evident from observations of increases in global average
air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow
and ice, and rising global mean sea level.
At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales,
numerous long-term changes in climate have been
observed. These include:
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Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice,
Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity,
wind patterns
and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy
precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones
Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought
• Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of
North and South America, northern Europe and northern
and central Asia.
• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased
over most land areas - consistent with warming and
increases of atmospheric water vapour
• Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa
and parts of southern Asia.
• More intense and longer droughts observed since the
1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.
According to China Meteorological
Administration, the climate in China:
Temperature
Drought frequency
Rainfall
Flooding frequency
Average landed
typhoons: 7/a
The annual sand/dust storm
during spring in the northern
China: 5.5 days/a
Warming of the globe and China
Global
China
（Global data from HadCRUTv3 and China data from Wang et al）
2007 was the warmest year since 1951
10.1℃
（Center on Climate Change, CMA）
Mean temperature changes in China (1958-2007)
Unit: ºC per decade
（
）
（中国气象局国家气候中心）
（Center on Climate Change, CMA）
Precipitation in China (1958~2007)
“Three Gorges” dam:
1994~2006
Western: increase from 15% to 50%；Eastern: “wetter in the south and drier in the north”;
Southern: increase from 5% to10%; Northern: decrease by 10%-30%
Changes in number of storming days
Annual
precipitation
changes
Surface air
temperature
Future annual mean surface air temperature and
precipitation changes over China (Relative to 1980-1999)
2030
2050
2100
0.6-1.0℃
1.2-2.0℃
2.2-4.2℃
• Precipitation is likely to increase by 2-3% in 2020
• Precipitation is likely to increase by 2-5% in 2050
• Precipitation is likely to increase by 6-14% by the
end of 21st Century
（Center on Climate Change, CMA）
Inter-Decadal Variation of Summer Precipitation
Blue: Frequency of more prec.; Red: Frequency of less prec.
20 Century
1950s
1960s
Highest
frequency
90%
Highest
frequency
80%
1970s
Highest
frequency
60%
1980s
Highest
frequency
60%
1990s
21 Century
20002008
Highest
frequency
70%
• Further northward migration of summer precipitation in China?
• Contribution of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing?
Happening recently:
Storming and flooding in 2010 …
Landslide:
1467 died,
298 missing
In 2011 … “seeing sea in cities”
Shenyang 07/20
Nanjing 07/18
Beijing 06/23
Changsha 06/28
Chengdu 07/03
Wuhan 06/18
Sequential events
Solid waste at Three-Gorges
7000 drums of toxic chemicals downwashed with flooding in Jilin 7/28
Toxic mug leaking 6/29
Leaking of toxic wastewater from
Hengary aluminum factory 10/5
Flooding in South Asia
2010 Flooding in Pakistan, 1539 died, 17 million affected
2010 Flooding in India
2011: July to November, flooding in southern Thailand
Causing over 500 casual; 16 of 55
districts of Bangkok affected; ~~~ a
long-term trend?
Responsibility and burden sharing
Responsibility and burden sharing
• Responsibility: polluter pays, common and
differentiated responsibilities, based on
accumulated (effective) emissions, and
equity (per capita) principle;
• The Pew Center on Global Climate Change, an American think tank
close to progressive business, has made a proposal using a set of
three criteria to divide countries into three groups. These
criteria, standard of living, responsibility and opportunity,
consist, in turn, of different indicators.
• Responsibility for causing climate change is defined in terms of
countries’ historical and current total emissions, emissions per
capita and projected future emissions. Historical emissions are
defined as the cumulative CO2 emissions during the period 1950–
95. Estimated growth in emissions is extrapolated using the average
annual growth in emissions in 1992–95.
• Standard of living reflects the fact that in poor countries emissions
very often stem from an effort to meet basic necessities and that
richer nations are better equipped to cut down emission levels. The
indicator used for defining the standard of living is gross
domestic product (GDP) per capita.
• The opportunity criterion factors in the differences between
countries’ chances to reduce emissions. It is defined according to
the energy intensity of the economy, i.e. the amount of energy
that is used to produce a given economic unit of output.
• Finally, the Pew Center divides countries into three groups, or
tiers, according to these criteria.
– “Must Act Now” includes the majority of OECD countries, a few
transition economies, economically more prosperous southern nations
(e.g. Chile, Israel and Malaysia) as well as some oil-producing
countries, such as Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.
– “Should Act Now, But Differently” is comprised of the majority of the
transition economies, the rest of the western industrialised nations as
well as a good number of middle-income developing countries.
– The rest of the developing countries fall into “Could Act Now”.
Common and differentiated responsibilities
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According to
UNSD, China
CO2 emission
has reached
the first place
since 2006.
CO2 emissions in major countries (2007)
China (Mainland) annual total carbon emission reached No 1
中国大陆年碳排放总量已经达到世界第一
China
mainland
USA
India
Annual carbon emission from fuel in 1900-2010
Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) Data
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
Accumulated carbon emission is low, but rising quickly
累积碳排放量低，但在迅速增大
USA
China
mainland
India
Accumulated carbon emission from fuel in 1900-2010, based on CDIAC
Accumulated “surviving” carbon emission ~ “Natural debt”
累积“留存”碳排放量 ~ 国家自然债务指数
USA
China
mainland
India
Based on the Siegenthaler formula, cited by K. R. Smith 1996:
Per capita emission is low, just exceeded global average
USA
Global
China
mainland
Per capita carbon emissions for fuel in 1950~2010, based on CDIAC
Accumulated “per capita emission” of China is also low
中国累计人均碳排放量也仍然低
China (m)
Accumulated per capita carbon emissions from 1950~2010, based on CDIAC
Per capita “natural debt” of China is also low
中国人均碳排放自然债务指数也仍然低
China (m)
Based upon the national natural debt curves
Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions
Growth rate
2010
5.9% yr
Growth rate
2000-2010
3.1% per year
Growth rate
2009
-1.3% per year
Growth rate
1990-1999
1% per year
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Uncertainty (6-10%)
+
Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters
2010 Growth
Rates
2500
Carbon Emissions per year
(C tons x 1,000,000)
2500000
China
10.4%
2000
2000000
4.1%
1500
1500000
USA
1000
1000000
Russian Fed.
500
500000
00
1990
Japan
India
2000
9.4%
5.8%
6.8%
2010
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011
Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples
2010
180
Carbon Emissions per year
(C tons x 1,000,000)
180000
160000
UK
140
140000
Canada
120000
Australia
100
100000
Spain
80000
60
60000
40000
The Netherlands
20
20000
00
1990
Denmark
2000
2010
Time (y)
Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011
Top 20 CO2 FF Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2010
6
2000
5
Total Carbon Emissions
(tons x 1,000,000)
2000000
4
1500
1500000
3
1000
1000000
2
500
500000
00
1
Per Capita Emissions (tons
C person y-1)
2500
2500000
0
Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Population World Bank 2011
Figure 1.5: Intensities of energy use and CO2 emissions, 1970–2004.
PPP ~ Purchasing Power Parity
TPES ~ Total Primary Energy Supply
Laspeyres decomposition
Figure 1.6: Decomposition of global energy-related CO2 emission changes at the global
scale for three historical and three future decades.
China Response to
Climate Change
Efforts by China
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Family plan;
Forestation;
National information reports to UNFCCC (2004)
China climate change report (2005)
National action plan in responding to climate
change (2007)
Commitment (2010) of reducing carbon strength
by 40~45% in 2020;
“Low carbon” technology and development
Alternative and renewable energy development:
wind power, solar energy, and nuclear power
stations
“Xiaokang Society”
Eco-city development and “Eco-civilization”
Example: no centralized heating in the
southern China: south to Huai River
Need thermal underware?
Shanghai actions
The four key measures in the 2007 Implementation Plan:
– Re-form or restructure 3000 coal burning boilers and furnaces to save
200,000 tons of coal. To 2010, to reach energy saving capacity of 3 million
tons of coal and accumulated saving by 9 million tons of coal.
– Installing desulfurization device in 14 coal burning power plants;
wastewater collecting pipeline network in metropolitan area; the 3rd phase
construction; upgrading of ZhuYuan and BaiLongGang wastewater plants;
25 more wastewater plants; pipeline network for 30 wastewater plants; 28
industrial wastewater collecting pipeline network
– Optimizing power generation mode to replace electricity 2.3 billion kWh,
saving 200,000 coal; With public transportation priority (33%), completing
420 km subway/sky train system and 300 km pub-bus special line system;
New constructions should apply 50% energy saving standard of China and
to reach 65%; Energy saving reform/reconstructions on 30 million m2
building; and energy saving diagnostics for large scale (>3000 m2)
commercial buildings.
– Strengthening the management in key energy consumption enterprises,
e.g., by means of on-line monitoring, for reach over 95% pollutant
attainment discharges.
Shanghai actions
Ten key energy saving projects (since 2007):
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Electric appliances energy saving
用电设备节电工程、
Energy supply system optimization
能量系统优化工程、
Waste heat and pressure utilization
余热余压利用节能工程、
Coal burning boiler and furnace
燃煤工业锅炉窑炉节煤工程、
Construction energy saving
建筑节能工程、
Air conditioning and home appliance 空调和家用电器等节电工程、
Green lighting
绿色照明工程、
Distributive energy supply
分布式供能等工程、
Metropolitan transportation and alternative fuel
城市交通节约和替代石油工程、
– Government energy saving
政府机构节能工程。
Shanghai actions
• In 2006~2009
– Shanghai energy intensity (energy consumption of unit GDP) has reduced
by 17.12%. It is of 84.14% of the target of Shanghai’s 11th Five-Year Plan.
In 2010, this index should be further reduced by 3.6%.
– SO2 and COD emissions have reduced in these four years by 26.1% and
19.9%, already reached the planned targets (26% and 15%).
• Renewable energy
– Wind power: On shore 24.4 MW (2008), Offshore wind power 100 MW
– Solar energy: Over 5MW at EXPO and Chongming Island, etc.
• EXPO2010:
– Solar power generation over 5MW, and 1000 new energy cars should
reduce carbon emission by 0.280 Mt
– Close up 800,000 kW small scale coal burning power plants; 500,000 sets
of energy saving air conditioners; 12 million energy saving lamps etc.
• Problem: during the first quarter of 2010, energy consumption was
increased by 16.96% in comparison of 2009. Electricity consumed by
16.79%, and the development trend of heavy industries is difficult to be
controlled.
For example:
Subway and sky trains
• London: 408 km
• New York: 370 km
• Tokyo: subway 286.2 km + trains ~ 1000 km
• Shanghai (2010) 420 km, to extend to 567 km in
2012 and 877 km in 2020 towards 1000 km
Shanghai studies in academic aspect
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Shanghai per capita carbon emission is close to EU OECD countries
上海人均碳排放量已经达到欧洲发达国家的水平
Related researches
相关研究
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Qian JIe and Yu Lizhong 2003: Study on contribution of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel in
Shanghai
钱杰，俞立中2003
WANG Bingyan et al. 2004: Local air pollutant and CO2 emissions scenarios under low carbon
development：Shanghai case study
王冰研，陈长虹等2004
The current group 2007，2009: Carbon emission reduction in Shanghai
本组2007,2009
Guo Yungong et al. 2009: The decomposition research on energy-related carbon emissions of
Shanghai
郭运功，林逢春等2009
Zhao Minet al. 2009: Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption in Shanghai City
赵敏，俞立中2009
In Blue Book of Shanghai Annual Repot on Resources and Environment of Shanghai
(2010)
• Peng Weibin: On the driving forces of Shanghai low carbon economy development
• Liu Xinyu: Shanghai low carbon city development coordinates
• Liang Xiaohui et al.: The long term view of Shanghai low carbon city development
刘新宇、彭伟斌、梁朝晖 2010
Main findings
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主要成果
Carbon emission amount, emission strength, and emission per capita
上海市碳排放量，碳排放强度（GDP，人均）
Main influential factors: population, heavy industry, transportation, construction, and improving
living standards.
影碳排放的主要因素：人口、大工业、交通、建筑、生活水平
Limited influence by energy restructuring 能源结构调整影响有限
Carbon sinks are not enough to offset the increase of sources
碳汇的改进不足于达到减排的要求
Comparison with int. large cities
New York
纽约
Item 指标
(2008)
Emission amount, MtCO2
52.17
Agriculture 农业
-Heavy industry 大工业
8.1%
Construction 商业和公共部门
29.7%
建筑用能
39.7%
民用住宅
Surface transport. 地面交通
22.4%
Area 面积，km2
790
Population million常住人口
8.30
单位面积碳排放量，
6.60
10000 tCO2/km2
Emission per capita，tCO2
6.29
London
伦敦
(2006)
44.00
-7.0%
33.0%
38.0%
22.0%
1572
7.5124
Tokyo
东京
(2003)
70.44
-9.2%
35.4%
25.3%
30.1%
2187.09
12.3882
Shanghai
上海
(2007)
184.89
0.7%
65.6%
13.20%
8.70%
11.8%
6340.5
18.5808
2.80
3.22
2.92
5.86
5.69
9.95
Observation
• Low carbon strategies
– Low carbon energy: wind, solar, geothermal, tide, and nuclear;
– Reduction of the scale of traditional industries;
– Industrial structure optimization: reducing high-carbon industries,
adding low carbon and carbon capturing industries
– Reducing energy consumption per unit production;
– Promote the development of CCS technologies.
• Questions
– Definition of “Low Carbon”?
– “Low Carbon” or “Lower Carbon”?
– Challenges in population growth and economic development;
• Difficulties
– Primary results of a comprehensive study reveals that the
40~45% reduction in relative emission may be reached, but it is
very difficult to reach the IPCC target for per capita emission
reduction, even CCS is included.
China carbon emission per capita increases quickly,
close to the global average
中国人均排放量迅速增加，接近世界平均水平
• China’s carbon emission is huge in the sense of annual total amount,
but compare with developed countries: 在年排放总量的意义上，中国碳
排放严重，但和发达国家比较：
– Accumulated total emission amount is still small; 累积排放总量小
– Per capita average emission is low;
人均碳排放量小
– Accumulated per capita emission is also low 累积人均碳排放量也小
• but, both annual emission and per capita emissions increase quickly;
但年排放量和人均排放量在迅速增加
• As a responsible nation, China is making efforts and committed 40~45%
emission reduction before 2020; 作为一个负责任的国家，中国已经承
诺在2020年前，见效碳排放强度40~45%
• Other measures…
China should also take serious actions
中国应当认真采取行动
• Developed countries are responsible for quantified GHG
emission reduction. China should also take actions. Before
the Copenhagen Accord, China committed to reduce
carbon emission intensity 40~45% by 2020 relative to 2005.
• 日本、美国、欧盟等发达国家和地区应当制定中长期绝对减
排目标。去年哥本哈根会议前夕，我国提出了“争取到2020
年单位国内生产总值CO2排放比2005年下降40%~45%”的自
愿减排目标。
IESD research
• Both
carbon
sources
and sinks
are
included
Nov, 2009
Dec. 12, 2007
Current Situation
Energy related carbon emissions
Carbon cycle in terrestrial system:
Atmosphere and Terrestrial Ecosystem
大气层和陆相生态系统
Fossil Fuel
化石燃料
Cement
水泥
Production
生产活动
Living/Aspiration
生活/呼吸
Human Society 人类社会
Production
Transit
Soil Storage/
Evaporation
土壤储存/呼吸
Plants Storage/
Aspiration
植物储存/呼吸
Natural System 自然系统
能源生产 煤炭、石油、天然气开采
能源加工与转换 发电、炼油、炼焦、煤制气、煤炭洗选、型煤加工
Consumption
能源消费 农业、工业、交通、建筑、商业、民用
Analysis Method
To find carbon emission amount:
分析方法
计算碳排放量
CO2 emission = emission factor  fossil fuel
CO2排放量 = 排放因子  化石燃料消费量
Emission factors: IPCC emission factor, 2006
可采用IPCC推荐的排放因子(2006)
To analyze driving factors:
分析碳排放驱动力
KATA Identity
F = P  (GDP/P) 
(E/GDP)
 (F/E)
CO2排放量 = 人口 经济发展g 
能源强度e
 碳强度f
CO2排放量 = 人口 人均收入
 工业结构和技术  能源结构
To compare contributions of the driving factors
比较各驱动力的影响程度
Laspeyres decomposition
F = (F)due to P + (F)due to g + (F)due to e + (F)due to f
Σsectors
Σfuels
And/or LMDI (Logarithmic mean divisia index)
Shanghai statistical data
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Population data
GDP
GDP per capita
Energy consumption
Energy intensity
Energy consumption per capita
Industry production
Industry/transportation/energy
人口数据
国内生产总值
人均GDP
能耗数据
单位GDP能耗
人均能耗
工业产品数据
工业交通能源数据
• Statistical data from: 2008 Annual Book of Shanghai Industry, energy and
transportation
Electric/thermal carbon emission calculation
1. Collect fuel data for various electricity/heat production;
2. Determine CO2 emission factors of different fuels;
3. Calculate CO2 emissions from various sectors and sum
up the results;
4. Calculate mean electric/thermal CO2 emission factor
Electric/thermal carbon emission calculation
1. Energy production and transform: electricity, heat,
coke, oil refinery, and gas production
2. Transmit/distribution:
Raw coal, town gas, natural gas, oil, heat, electricity
3. End-use: agriculture, industry (including construction),
commercial/public building, residential building,
transportation, ship/air, industrial process
Shanghai mean thermal carbon emission factor
上海平均热力碳排放因子计算表(考虑了输配损失)
热力碳排放因子，
热力当量，万吨标
类型
tCO2/万吨标准煤热
准煤
力当量
0
8.70
回收热力
32638.81
222.43
生产的热力
热力生产过程中CO2排放总量，tCO2
CO2排放量, tCO2
0
7259893.84
7259893.84
终端部门接受到的热力总量，万吨标准煤
221.28
上海平均热力碳排放因子，tCO2/万吨标准煤热力当量
32808.21
Shanghai mean electric carbon emission factor
上海平均电力碳排放因子计算表(考虑了输配损失)
电力碳排放因子，
电量,亿kwh
tCO2/亿kwh
83964.38
733.35
上海本地火力发电
84521.69
339.03
市外来电
电力碳排放总量, tCO2
终端部门接收到的电力总量,万吨标准煤电力当量
上海平均电力碳排放因子，tCO2/万吨标准煤
类型
CO2排放量，
tCO2
61575279.42
28655387.19
90230666.61
1249.03
72240.44
Scenario design and projection
情景设计和预测
Key factors that influence carbon emission
Key factors
– Population
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Economic development
Industrial structure
Technology
Energy structure
Living standard
Policy (e.g. carbon tax)
人口
经济增长
产业结构
技术进步
能源结构
生活水平
政策?
Scenario analysis procedure
Scenario Design
Key influencing factors
Quantify factors
Energy appl
Tech / CCS
Sectoral energy intensity
Energy re-structuring
Electricity/heat supply
Energy/Industry
Policies
CCS tech and utilization
Energy
supply
sectors
Macro Social
factors
End-use
Sector
Energy
demand
Sectoral activity levels
Emission
factors
Calculation
RESULTS
Scenario Calculation
CO2 emission projection LEAP modeling
• Covering all energy production/transit and end-use
sectors
• Including all kinds of fuels and secondary energies
• The base year is 2007, calculation for 2020, 2030,
2040, and 2050。
Structure/flow chart of Shanghai LEAP model calculation
Scenario design
• Population and economic growth: based upon historical data and
available analysis,
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High development (H)
– Low development (L)
• Industrial and energy structures
– Energy Efficiency (EE), industrial restructuring only, energy structure
keeps the same
– Energy Restructure (ER) , industrial restructuring, alternative energies
are considered, with advanced technology and some CCS;
– Low Carbon (EC) , industrial restructuring, stronger alternative energy
and renewable energy, and more CCS
• Six scenarios are considered: HEE, HER, HEC, LEE, LER, and LEC.
Examples of parameter setting
Population
Low increment
Year
High increment
Population
(million)
Rate(‰)
Population
(million)
Rate (‰)
2007
18.5808
--
18.5808
--
2020
21.7463
2007-2020: 1.22‰
24.0362
2007-2020: 2‰
2030
24.0758
2020-2030: 1.02‰
28.7306
2020-2030: 1.8‰
2040
25.8769
2030-2040: 0.72‰
33.3430
2030-2040: 1.5‰
2050
27.3848
2040-2050: 0.57‰
36.8314
2040-2050: 1‰
Economic development
Low development
High development
GDP, TRMB
Rate
GDP, TRMB
Rate
GDP per
capita, RMB
2007
1218.885
--
1218.885
--
66367
2020
3807.035
2007-2020: 9.2%
4207.922
2007-2020: 10%
175066
2030
7267.573
2020-2030: 6.7%
8672.659
2020-2030: 7.5%
301862
2040
12053.632
2030-2040: 5.2%
15531.412
2030-2040: 6%
465807
2050
17933.519
2040-2050: 4.1%
24119.808
2040-2050: 4.5%
654870
Year
Examples of parameter setting
Industry structure (%)
Sector
2007
2020
2030
2040
2050
Primary (Agriculture)
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
Secondary
46.6
Industry
Construction
Tertiary
31.4
24.5
19.6
14.7
93.3
86
82
78
73
6.7
14
18
22
27
52.6
68
75
80
85
Operation transport
11.3
9.7
8.1
6.6
5
Other services
88.7
90.3
91.9
93.4
95
End-industry added values (million RMB)
Scenario
H
L
Sector
2007
2020
2030
2040
2050
Agriculture
1.02
2.52
4.34
6.21
7.2359
Industry
52.98
113.63
174.23
237.44
258.83
Construction
3.80
18.50
38.25
66.97
95.73
Operating Transport
7.23
27.78
52.95
81.63
102.51
Other service
56.85
258.35
597.50
1160.88
1947.67
Agriculture
1.02
2.28
3.63
4.82
5.38
Industry
52.98
102.81
146.01
184.28
192.44
Construction
3.80
16.74
32.05
51.98
71.18
Operating Transport
7.23
25.14
44.37
63.35
76.22
Other service
56.86
233.74
500.70
900.94
1448.13
Examples of parameter setting
Renewable energy capacity 1000 kW
Year
Wind
Solar
Biomass
2007
24.4
0.195
--
2010
334.4
10
20
2020
1870
160
126
Scenario design 情景设置与定义
Scenario
Activity
Energy
intensity
CCS
considered
Carbon intensity
Energy structure reform in sectors
Energy structure
Carbon intensity
Carbon emission reduction reference target
Target 目标
Amount
总量
Over the peak and let 2050 emission lower
than 2007 跨越碳排放总量高峰，并使2050
年的碳排放量低于2007年的排放水平
Reducing 50% based on 2007, and less
accumulation. 2050年碳排放量在2007年的
基础上至少减排50%；2006年-2050年累计
碳排放量小于5337 Mt CO2
Intensity Intensity reducing by 45% in 2020, 2020年
强度
碳排放强度下降率高于45%
Per
capital
人均
Over the peak, and smaller than that of
2007. 跨越人均碳排放量高峰，并使2050年
的人均碳排放量低于2007年的排放水平
Targeting at 2t per capita; 2050年人均CO2
排放量将至2t CO2/人
Type
L 低目标
H 高目标
L 低目标
L 低目标
H 高目标
Result 计算结果 (2007)
General situation 总体情况
• Excluding ship/air, the 2007 emission reached
184.89MtCO2 , with 9.95t per capita (or 2.71 tC)
2007年上海市能源碳排放量达到了18489万tCO2(不包括
水运、航运)，人均碳排放量为9.95tCO2 or 2.71 tC。
• With ship/air, 21.467 MtCO2, and 11.55 tCO2 per
capita, 13.87% by ship/air
加上水运和航运，则达到21467万tCO2，人均碳排放量为
11.55 tCO2，水运和航运占13.87%。
End-use energy demand
High
Low
H-Scenario sectoral energy demand increment
(relative to 2007)
Private transportation
Residential building
Commercial/public
buildings
Agriculture
construction
Commercial transport
Industry
Private transportation and building energy demand
increases quickly
Sectoral energy demand ratio
Agriculture
Construction
Industry
Commercial transportation
Commercial /
public buildings
Residential buildings
Private transportation
Total CO2 emission
H-EE
H-ER
L-EE
H-LC
L-ER
L-LC
Population, GDP rate, energy structure, and CCS are
the influencing factors
• Reduction in energy intensity
The 2020 target of 45% reduction in carbon emission
strength can be reached
Emission per capita
Target: 2t CO2
It does not seem to attain the strict target, 2t CO2 per person
Total emission amount in different scenarios
MtCO2
Scenario
H-EE
H-ER
H-LC
L-EE
L-ER
L-LC
Turning
point
NA
2030
2030
2030
2030
2030
Peak
value
NA
339.99
323.71
330.43
307.05
293.04
2007
2050
214.68
214.68
214.68
214.68
214.68
214.68
502.34
359.89
264.85
373.50
268.50
197.11
Increment or
reduction (to 2007)
134.00%
67.64%
23.37%
73.98%
25.07%
- 8.18%
Accumulated emission
Target：5337 Mt CO2
The accumulated emission of all scenarios exceeds the target 5337 Mt
CO2. Even the lowest scenario (L-LC) is 1.1 more than the target.
Some of the results
Agriculture
In “buildings”
buildings
Commercial/
Within transportation:
public 60.2%
Agriculture
buildings
Non-Public Transportation:
Ship/Air
Surf. transp
Surf. transp
pub. transp
Industry
Non-pub.
In industry, heavy
industry: 97.3%
Sectoral CO2 emissions in 2007
Industry
Energy structure
Without
ship/air
With
ship/air
Electricity
Heat
Electricity
Coal
Heat
Natural
gas
Oil
Coal
Town
gas
Oil
Natural
gas
Shanghai end-use energy structure in 2007
Town
gas
Comparison with international large cities
New York
纽约
Item 指标
(2008)
Emission amount, MtCO2
52.17
Agriculture 农业
-Heavy industry 大工业
8.1%
Construction 商业和公共部门
29.7%
建筑用能
39.7%
民用住宅
Surface transport. 地面交通
22.4%
Area 面积，km2
790
Population million常住人口
8.30
单位面积碳排放量，
6.60
10000 tCO2/km2
Emission per capita，tCO2
6.29
London
伦敦
(2006)
44.00
-7.0%
33.0%
38.0%
22.0%
1572
7.5124
Tokyo
东京
(2003)
70.44
-9.2%
35.4%
25.3%
30.1%
2187.09
12.3882
Shanghai
上海
(2007)
184.89
0.7%
65.6%
13.20%
8.70%
11.8%
6340.5
18.5808
2.80
3.22
2.92
5.86
5.69
9.95
Summary
• China looks at climate change seriously. Actions are
taken for adaptation and mitigation. However,
• The burden is heavy, the road is long:
– Population growth and urbanization;
– Economic growth;
– Improve energy structure;
– Phase out backward production capacities, and optimize
industrial structure;
– Develop alternative and renewable energies;
– Promote forestation for more carbon sinks;
– Rooms of emission reduction in building service, living
behavior, and transportation choices;
– International cooperation should be needed.
Conclusion
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Many difficulties and opportunities
Population control
Living standard
Economy restructuring
Low carbon development
Alternative and renewable energies
Ecological civilization
Sustainable development
“量入为出”: Liang2 Ru4 Wei3 Chu1
the Chinese consuming ethics
• Cut your coat according to your cloth?
• It is important to always balance your
•
•
budget?
Make both ends meet?
Pay as you go?
Excessive consuming mode?