Transcript Yuri Safonov`s presentation

Russia:
Post-2012 Climate Policy Issues
Dr. George Safonov
Director, Center for Environmental Economics
State University – Higher School of Economics
under the Government of Russian Federation
Post-Kyoto concerns
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Fast economic growth and slowly growing carbon
emissions in Russia
Lack of experience in carbon emission control
Low priority of climate in domestic policy
making, but recognition that this is a significant
issue of international policy
Political need for maintaining work within UN
Unclear structure of the post-Kyoto international
deal by now (role of US, G77&China, etc.)
GHG emission forecasts in Russia
CO2 emission forecasts based on
Russian Energy Strategy - 2020
CO2 emission forecasts based on recent
macroeconomic forecasts by Ministry
of Economic Development
3000,0
1990 baseline level of GHG emissions
2500,0
Challenge: now there are
NO scenarios with stable or
declining GHG emissions
in Russia at all
2000,0
1500,0
1000,0
500,0
0,0
2006
2010
Basic Scen.
Innovation Scen.
2020
Energy-based Scen.
2030
Likely position of Russia at COP15 (2009)
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-25-40% by 2020 is not acceptable for Russia
-10-15% cap is negotiable, this is reachable level,
regarding Kyoto surplus and existing potential for emission
reduction
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No active involvement in negotiations of caps
Waiting for the US and G77&China to take
commitments
Flexible mechanisms are welcome, otherwise the
Kyoto surplus is not capitalized
Climate policy instruments
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JI is in place, GIS is considered, no ETS yet
Higher priority of policies and measures approach,
such as targeted programs and regulations are adopted, e.g. energy efficiency
standards, forestry programs, corporate programs (Gazprom), etc.
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Ministry of Economic Development welcomes business
proposals about ETS,
but is not intended to limit GHG emissions itself at the moment
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Big Russian business is considering ETS as an interesting
tool for capitalizing its potential in emission reduction
Strategic document –
Concept for long-term socio-economic development
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Adopted by government in Oct. 2008
General goals are:
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To reach the world leading country level of social and
economic development with attractive way of living.
To be among 5 leading countries by GDP in the world
Environmental quality is one of the priorities for
strategic policy making
Policy indicators,
related to carbon emission regulation
1.
Reduction of impacts on the environment
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2.
Environmental safety and comfort
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3.
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5-fold less cities with high/very high pollution, 4-fold less population living
in poor environment, etc.
Environmental business
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4.
BAT, modern recycling, use of alternative energy, stimulation of GHG
emission reduction, 3-7 times lower pollution-intensity by industries
Emission markets, certificates for renewable energy, energy efficiency,
5-fold increase of env.goods and services sector
Protection of natural environment (adaptation?)
Other indicators:
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2-2,5 times less env. impacts by 2020
env. costs may rise up to 1-1,5% of GDP by 2020
-30-50% of GHG emissions by 2050
40-45% less energy intensity of GDP by 2020
Thanks for your
attention!
Dr. George V. Safonov
Director, Center for Environmental Economics,
State University – Higher School of Economics
[email protected]
Tel. +7 903 7791161