Transcript Climate Change History

History and Transitions of
Global Warming Programs and
Policies
Harnessing the power of markets . . . to protect and improve the environment.
April 2004
Wiley Barbour
Environmental Resources Trust, Inc.
Copyright Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. (ERT), 2003.
Request to reproduce all or part of this material should be made to ERT.
Early History of Global Warming Science
• 1824- Jean Baptiste Joseph FourierFirst described greenhouse effect
• 1896- Svante ArrheniusBurning coal emits CO2 which warms earth
• 1938- Guy CallendarMan changing atmosphere, may lead to warming
“As man is now changing the composition of the atmosphere at a rate
which must be very exceptional on the geological time scale, it is
natural to seek for the probable effects of such a change. From the
best laboratory observations it appears that the principal result of
increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide . . . would be a gradual increase
in the mean temperature of the colder regions of the earth.”
—G. S. Callendar (1939), British Steam Engineer
Indicators of the Human Influence
on the Atmosphere during the Industrial Era
.
a) Different symbols denote ice core data for
several sites in Antarctica and Greenland
b) Lines indicate sulphate concentrations in ice
cores in Greenland. Pluses denote the regional
estimated SO2 emissions.
Source: IPCC WG I (Science) Summary for
Policy-Makers, Third Assessment Report, 2001.
1950s - 1960s – 1970s
• Early 1950s- Global warming theories get
revived attention
• 1958- Keeling begins monitoring of CO2 in
atmosphere at Mauna Loa, Hawaii and the
South Pole.
• Early 70s- Four major climate modeling centers
established
• 1979- World Climate Conference
1980s
• 1987- Montreal Protocol established timeline for
phase-out of CFCs
– Successful linkage between science and policy
communities
– Many of the key players turned their attention next to
global climate change
1989- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) launched to provide assessment of science
1992 “Earth Summit”
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
• Framework Convention on Climate Change
•
•
•
•
(FCCC) signed by 154 nations
Came into effect March 21, 1994
Currently ratified by 155 nations including the
United States
Goal: “avoid dangerous interference with the
climate system”
How to enforce?
Designing a Compliance Framework
• Legally binding vs Non-binding
• All GHGs
vs CO2 only
• Pledge-based
vs Principal-based
• Type of coverage:
– Project
– Sector
– National
– regional
Types of Commitments:
• International carbon TAX
• Internationally harmonized POLICIES AND
•
•
•
•
MEASURES
Fixed emission target: CAP ON EMISSIONS (Kyoto)
Dynamic emission target: LIMIT ON EMISSIONS
relative to GDP growth
Dual emission targets: “SAFE ZONE” between a
high and a low target
Emission Target with COST CAP (safety valve)
1995 COP-1
Berlin, Germany
• The first meeting of the Conference of the
Parties (COP-1) under the UNFCCC
• Berlin Mandate
– Quantified emission limitation and reduction
objectives within specified time-frames
– “Targets and Timetables”
1997 COP-3
Kyoto, Japan
• Kyoto Protocol
• Caps emissions from developed countries and
•
economies in transition
“Annex I Parties” agreed to
–
–
–
–
reduce their overall emissions of six greenhouse gases,
by at least 5% below 1990 levels,
between 2008 and 2012 (the first commitment period),
specific targets varying from country to country.
• Emissions trading of Allowances and Project
•
Reductions
Registries Required to Track Progress
Recent US Climate Policy
• Withdraw from international negotiations
• Voluntary Programs and Partnerships
– PCA, Climate Leaders, Pew Center, CCX
• California Climate Action Registry
• Regional GHG Initiative
– Mandatory Cap on CO2
– Lead by NY and including NY, NJ and NE
states
Different registries for different
purposes
Registry
Purpose
Example 3rd party Type of
Provider Likely
Audit
reductions Promise regulatory
acceptance
“Hall of good 1605 (b)
deeds”
None
All types
No promise Low
Baseline
protection
State level May be
registry
required
efforts
Direct &
Some will
indirect
lobby on
distinguished behalf of
registrant
Market
foundation
ERT GHG Required
Registry
Direct with
ownership
only
Medium
Pedigree of High
tons adds
value
GHG Partnerships, Registries and
Trading Platforms
Voluntary
CA
Registry
DOE
1605(b)
US
CCX
Climate
Savers
OR
Climate
Trust
Climate
Leaders
JI
RGGI
ERT
EDF
PCA
ET
ERUPT/
CERUPT
KP
CDM
PCF
Australia GHG
Challenge
GERT
Compliance/Mandatory
“ERs”
for retirement
Canada
VCR
Clean Air
Canada
BPI
DK ETS
UK ETS
Recommendations for North
Carolina
• Develop Comprehensive multi-year Climate Protection
•
Action Plan
Encourage GHG mitigation via
– Binding Cap on Emissions, or Voluntary Emission Registry
• Projects that work in NC:
–Methane reductions from agricultural wastes
–Methane reductions from confined animal feed operations
–Carbon sequestration in forests and soils
–Renewable energy that displaces fossils fuels
• Level the playing field for Renewables:
–Strive toward new RPS standards
–Use NOx set-aside as a solid first step
NC Greenpower will not stimulate demand
for renewables at current price levels
C&I “Sweet Spot”
($60-180)
Solar
Residential NC
Greenpower
$40
Avg Utility
Greenpower
$26
C&I NC
Greenpower
$22.50
Wind
($4-20)
Southeast
Biomass
($4-6)
Biomass
($1-6)
Geothermal
($2-5)
Small
Hydro
($2-4)
LFG
($1–3)
5
10
15
20
25
REC Price ($ per MWh)
60
180
Will North Carolina Continue to
Lead?
Wiley Barbour
Environmental Resources Trust, Inc.
202-785-8577 x14
[email protected]
Copyright Environmental Resources Trust, Inc. (ERT), 2003.
Request to reproduce all or part of this material should be made to ERT.