Transcript Low Carbon Innovation in China Prospects, Politics

China-EU Networks of
Low Carbon Innovation
Prospects & Constraints
Dr David Tyfield
IAS, Lancaster University & Demos
SPPM Tsinghua, Beijing
9th May 2008
Global Transition to Low Carbon Systems
• Climate change as a global and social problem
• Change in socio-economic systems needed
• Massive reductions in GHG emissions needed
• Not “reducing” but transforming human impact
• Time limit (e.g. Stern Review)
• How effect this shift?
• Innovation
• International collaboration
Low Carbon Innovation
Great interest from policy BUT what is it?
“Systems” change – climate change as social issue
Not just technology but also social innovation
“Disruptive Innovation” – fundamental challenges to
socio-economic systems (e.g. Barnsley biomass)
• “Democratic Innovation” – dispersed, open, user
• Innovation is always a socio-political process
• What low carbon systems are envisaged and
supported by policy, business and civil society?
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Bringing Coals to Shanxi?
China’s Environmental Problems
• Economic growth ≈10% since 1990
• >200 million out of poverty
BUT
• Massive pollution problems
• “16 of 20” world’s most polluted cities (World Bank).
• No. 1 absolute emitter of GHGs (BUT small per person)
• Huge rate of growth of energy consumption
• Vulnerability to climate change
• Recognition that climate change is a problem for China now
• China cannot choose and must not be forced to choose
between development and environment
International Collaboration
• No socioeconomic bloc alone has the capacity to move to low
carbon systems
• Free rider problem
• Effects of climate change not evenly distributed BUT global
implications in any case
• Low carbon innovation must have global roll-out to have
requisite effect
• China is a crucial part of this process – a large, industrialised
but still-developing country
• ESRC/AIM Project examining prospects and constraints for
EU-China low carbon collaborations
The Atlas of Ideas
www.atlasofideas.org
Low Carbon Innovation in China
• Ambiguous current state - Can China “leapfrog”?
• Serious environmental and social challenges
• 70% of CDM market
Energy
• Renewable: Suntech, Rizhao, Wind power
Urban Transport
• Dalian Institute, Wuhan and USTC on fuel cells
Agriculture
• Reforestation of Loess Plateau
Motivations for Collaboration
EU/UK with China
• Market opportunities
• Large, industrious and increasingly skilled workforce
• Sector specific opportunities e.g. drought, coal, cars…
• Investment in future links/ funding opportunities
China with EU/UK
• Technological and research expertise
• Improve indigenous innovation capacity
• Access to international publications/ increase impact
• Domestic political cachet
Constraints on Collaboration 1
Business
China
• IPRs/ confidentiality/ job loyalty
• Opaque political culture
• Business culture/ language etc…
• Lacking incentives for domestic low carbon focus?
EU/UK
• IPRs
• Technology transfer - and demonstration
• Personal contact not international reputation
Constraints on Collaboration 2
Research
China
• Frank discussion of results, with all parties
• Scientific initiative vs. micro-management
• Differing career structures (e.g. links to business)
EU/UK
• Inadequate funding for long-term projects
• Bureaucracy of setting up in the first place
• Fees for visiting students and researchers
Constraints on Collaboration
Overall
• Slowly learning to work together
• E.g. crucial role of returnees and former PhD students
as pivot and mediator
• E.g. 2 collaboration producing reciprocal changes in
understanding of research, innovation and partnership.
BUT
• TIMEFRAME?: We don’t have a generation for this
process if the goal is global transition to low carbon
systems to meet a target of (say) 450ppm CO2.
High Level Constraints 1
• Danger of stand-off in global climate change talks
• US not participating (though 2009?)
• Europe – relatively small countries by population with
high per person emissions  “China excuse”
• China & India understandably see climate change as
primarily the developed world’s responsibility
Total GHG Emissions 2006
(Billion tonnes CO2 Equivalent)
Efficiency of GHG Emissions 1
(tonnes/ GDP US$ Million)
Efficiency of GHG Emissions 2
(tonnes/ Industrial GDP US$ Million)
GHG per capita
(2006 tonnes/ person)
Comparative Aggregated GHGs per capita
(1960-2006 % Total emissions/person, India = 1)
High-Level Constraints 2
• Geo-politics of global agreement: e.g. IPRs, tech
transfer – no obvious solution but what is the debate
really about?
• Cycles of trust or suspicion?
• China’s ongoing national project not widely understood
in global North-“first priority to serve national economic
development” after century of colonial plunder
• Economic development = openness
• Chinese emissions growth BUT what is North doing?
• How are both North & China going to be convinced to
prioritise CC, not just economic growth? And whose?
High-Level Constraints 3
Transition in international political economy
• Ongoing (but inchoate) shift from US to Asia
• US Economy in crisis, Asia booming
• US global power in question, Iraq and Afghanistan
• Former transitions (Netherlands to UK, UK to US) have
not been easy
“Global” emergence
• Global, not just international, social forces
• World-Wide Web and travel
• Global business, global migration, global crime
Opportunities and Positive Signs
• China’s central government undoubtedly committed to:
• Tackling climate change (inc. SEPA  MEP)
• International collaboration
• Continued openness to international economy
• China is willing to pay for top technologies, but cautious –
wants to know they are worth investing in
• Great interest in Europe to work with and help China meet
the challenge of low carbon systems transition
• Europe and China (and US…) need to be partners in
setting trajectories of low carbon transition
• China/EU collaborations growing and changing: changing
governance to match?
Cosmopolitan Innovation
(全球多元化创新)
• Global ethic of concern taking diverse local forms - not
exclusive of national priorities
• Not question of “one world” but of creating the social reality of
a global context for strategic calculation
• But the political vision of global concern is crucial condition
• Grassroots international partnerships are part of the context of
the multi-layered politics of climate change treaty
• Regime of international collaboration for “global public goods”,
e.g. a CC Marshall Plan and/or a global research council?
• Need to develop institutional and cultural capacity for global
public oversight of socio-technical change.
谢谢
We gratefully note the funding of the ESRC and AIM
Project Team:
Dr David Tyfield [email protected]
Dr James Wilsdon [email protected]
Prof John Urry [email protected]
Prof Brian Wynne [email protected]
& the Demos “Atlas of Ideas” Team www.atlasofideas.org