Transcript Transport Policy and Planning Conference

TRANSPORT
2000
Transport and climate change
– the challenge
Stephen Joseph, Director
Starting points
TRANSPORT
2000
• Transport accounts for around 26% of UK CO2: this is set to
grow and omits international aviation and shipping
• Transport occupies much of the public debate
• There is action by Government but transport has got off
comparatively lightly in the Climate Change Programme etc
• The CCP assumed the EU voluntary agreement target for
new cars (140 gm/km by 2008) would be met – it won’t
The case for inaction
TRANSPORT
2000
• Cutting transport emissions is expensive per tonne
of carbon saved compared with e.g. home
insulation
• The value of carbon saved is outweighed by the
economic benefits of transport
• Changing travel patterns is not (politically) possible
and Government can’t/shouldn’t influence people’s
travel behaviour (the fuel protests etc), so any
action should be confined to technology (cleaner
fuels and vehicles)
But…
TRANSPORT
2000
•
Measures that can reduce transport emissions can be cheap and have
good returns
•
There is now good evidence that travel behaviour can be changed
without huge protests
•
Action to reduce transport’s contribution to climate change will bring
other economic and social benefits
•
There are choices: transport investment, pricing etc can support low
carbon transport behaviour or it can entrench high carbon behaviour –
and land use/transport links are critical here
And if transport does not play its part other sectors will have to contribute
more: business as usual for aviation would require all other sectors
having to reduce emissions by up to 87% to achieve the overall 60% cut
by 2050.
Alternative scenarios…
TRANSPORT
2000
Excess emissions from transport over 60% target
30.0
Million tonnes of carbon
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2005
2025
Straight reduction
2045
Slow start
Rapid start
…produce different carbon
deficits
TRANSPORT
2000
Total carbon deficit 2005-2050
1000
Million tonnes of carbon
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Straight line Rapid start
Slow start
DfT
Slow start
catching up
VIBAT
VIBAT
rebase
Challenges
TRANSPORT
2000
•
A clear strategy for tackling transport emissions incorporating domestic
as well as international action
•
Proper audits of emissions consequences of all policies and spending
(“0-2000 tonnes” in most trunk road appraisals won’t do!)
•
Give proper priority for climate change in all transport measures and
policies: e.g. Local Transport Plans, rail fares policies, ports
•
Make the choice of low carbon transport behaviour the obvious one –
easier, cheaper, more convenient
So transport can and must play a significant role in reducing
emissions, focused on how people/goods travel, making low
carbon transport more attractive, but also changing how
much people travel while still maintaining quality of life