Transcript Air travel and greenhouse gas emissions….

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~77% of emissions to date are from developed countries…..us!!
Australia represents about 1% of world emissions and is one of the highest per
capita emitters (28 tonnes per person as against China’s 5 tonnes per person).
Worryingly observed changes over the last 20 years reflect the middle to high end of
early climate change projections….
and actual global emissions since 2000 grew faster than in the highest (worst) of the
most recent scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC).
Hardest hit will be those who didn’t cause it and have the least ability to cope!!
It is recognised that we need to reduce emissions globally by (at least) 50-60% by
2050. This means at least an ~80% or more reduction for Australia if it is shared out
equally (a big global social equity issue)!!
Emissions by sector
for South Australia
•Totalling ~20 tonnes CO2e per
person
(20 000kg CO2 equivalent) per
person in South Australia
~30% of this is residential
Australian emissions by sector….
An emissions breakdown on a personal level from day to
day activity of this 30%….
• ~34% of this 30% is transport
(~10% of total) ~1/2 of Transport sector
• ~40% of 30% is in electricity generation for household use
(~12% of total) ~1/2 of Stationary energy sector
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~17% of 30% is in gas use in homes and waste (~5% of total)
Air travel and greenhouse gas emissions….
• ~2% of CO2 emissions globally, Civil Aviation in Australia is ~1%.
• Domestic air travel emissions grew 76% from 1990 to 2005.
• Total warming from air planes is equal to ~3.5% of global warming
due to water vapour and NOx injected from jet engines into the
stratosphere.
• Air traffic in Australia is growing at ~8% pa and projected to increase
~3x in the next 20 years in Australia, ~ double globally, so may end up
at ~7-10% of global warming forcing.
(there is the unknown impact of carbon taxes and peak oil??)
On a recent Adelaide to Melbourne trip….
• flying return= 240kg of CO2 per person (from online calculator).
• by bus: ~350L of diesel was used each way for the whole bus.
(1L diesel=2.45kg CO2)
40 passengers one way, 25 the other : 9kg + 13 kg
= 22kg of CO2 per person
Bus is ~10x better in emissions (takes longer ...10 hrs vs ~ 3 hrs)
(bus may be even better because of no water vapour and NO2 effect )
• I get a lot of reading done and work on the laptop, and meet some
interesting people!!
• Train is apparently better for freight than road, not as good with
passengers as the bus.
Sydney to UK return: ~4.4 tonnes of CO2 (4000kg).
Adelaide to Sydney return: ~0.44 tonnes (440kg)
Passenger cars are ~8% of national
emissions (~14% for SA).
Compared with average car use of
15000km per year…
• Commodore 3.9L ~4.5 tonnes of
CO2
• 2.0L Corolla ~ 3.2 tonnes of CO2
• 1.3L Mazda ~2.2 tonnes of CO2
(with 10% ethanol is about 2.0
tonnes)
• Prius or small diesel car ~1.7
tonnes of CO2
Smaller is better!!
If you really, really have to fly…..
Can carbon offset….
paying for activities that reduce carbon
dioxide emissions equal to those from
your part of the flight.
ie Virgin Blue, Carbon Planet etc
•The worth of some schemes is not clear
ie tropical planting may be better than
planting in mid-latitudes.
We really need to be both carbon
offsetting and reducing emissions!!
What else can we do??
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Solar hot water: a bit expensive up front but pays back within ~2 years. ~10%
Turn off standby appliances and buy efficient appliances. ~7%
Compact fluoro lights: not going to save us all!!. ~4%
Cycle/bus/ buy a small car/hybrid vehicle. ~16%
Insulate your roof/doors/windows/hot water pipes. ~5%
Reduce food miles and go veggie/dairy free as much as possible!! ~10%
(not on pie chart but based on livestock producing 18% of emissions per capita)
• Use ethanol or biodiesel: ~10-20% on ~30% = ~3%
Totals 55% savings…..each small change adds up!!
This is without GreenPower or solar PV panels!!
• Join an accredited GreenPower scheme. So can save ~25-50% of 45%!!
(Yes it is a bit more complicated than this but..)
• Solar PV panels will save about about the same as the GreenPower ~25-50% but are
currently pretty expensive, taking ~20 years to pay back.
Great to do if you can afford it!! People pay much more for home renovations!!
To finish…..lots of issues!!
• Going through the process and tracking down the figures has been sobering!!
• We can relatively easily right now reduce our personal emissions
(ie 30% of our per capita emissions) by ~60-75%
through behaviour changes and wiser purchases…without drastic impacts to our lives.
(so a 4 tonne flight to the UK then becomes an even
bigger percentage of our reduced annual emissions of ~15-16 tonnes!!)
• But this is only equal to ~18-23% of our per capita emissions!!!
• This makes a 50-60% per capita target ‘interesting’….and ultimately (past 2050)
we will still need to get close to 2.5 tonnes or less per person, ie 50% of current
global average of 5 tonnes per person, in any kind of equitable world!!
(with electric vehicles, cheaper solar panels, hot rock geothermal,
CO2 sequestration and….?)
• Need to engage everyone…business, industry, government, the developed and the
developing world.
Global warming is a global issue!!
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We can do our bit in our personal 30%.
Emissions more widely are a concern ie business,
industry and government need to be encouraged
to play their part.
And this is in the context of 3% pa economic
growth and ~1.5% pa population
rise……individuals can’t solve this by their
actions alone!!
Stern report determined we could mitigate
emissions by ~25% at cost of 1% GDP by
2050….and it will ultimately be ~10x more
expensive if we don’t!!
The developed world needs to use it’s wealth and
technology (produced while emitting 77% of the
problem so far) to introduce better ways of doing
things, and perhaps most importantly be seen to
be taking real action to lead the way!!
It is pretty clear that some big changes are needed
in our current way of doing
things…technologically and economically, to
meet targets that have a chance of keeping below
2-3 degrees warming!!
Some useful links….
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http://www.realclimate.org/
www.bom.gov.au/climate
http://gristmill.grist.org/skeptics
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pres
soffice/myths/index.html
This started around not flying but has
demonstrated that action needs to be taken
on all fronts!!
We are all on a journey into new territory!!