Transcript Green jobs

Employment prospects on the road to a resourceefficient economy
Creating industrial jobs in East and West: the role of energy policy
to induce investments and create jobs
PERC Conference
Bratislava, 6-7 October 2014
Béla Galgóczi
[email protected]
Background: Revision of growth model
Long term challenge: a fundamental revision of previous
growth model: transition to low (zero) carbon economy
Green growth – a strategy to promote ‚eco-industry‘, clean
energy and also give push to green restructuring of traditional
sectors
In 2011-2013 we see the danger of a reversal of green policies in
Europe: what we see is ‚black austerity‘This is in sharp contrast
with 2009 ‚green stimulus‘ packages
We also see a revival of fossil fuel (shale) gas and coal and an
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intensifying race for mineral resources (US)
Sustainable industry
Industry is key competence > ‚desindustrialisation‘ – no
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option!
Competitiveness via resource and energy efficiency and not
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through cheap energy
Eco industry has a key role, but ‚traditional industries‘ also
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need to transform (but job losses in polluting industries)
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Energy policy is a central element - massive investments
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The crisis makes it difficult to implement these policies
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Signs of backtracking (low investments, reversal in clean
energy, fossil fuel ‚revival‘)
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EU loses ground: New investments in renewable
energy (USD bn)
120
US
China
EU27
100
80
60
40
20
0
2004
●
Source:
2005
2006
2007
BNEF (2013 and 2014).
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Track record: the challenge is bigger then assumed by
mainstream policy scenario
It is clear that on basis of current policy scenario the world is
heading for a 3.5-4C temperature increase by 2100 (IEA,
2012)
Keeping the 2C target requires four times higher rate of future
decarbonisation (reduction of CO2 emitted per unit GDP).
Global ghg emissions keep on growing
Ghg emission reductions in Europe were more due to
crises to climate policy – no signs of decoupling economic
growth from emissions
No paradigm change visible yet
5
Decarbonisation: Europe is not doing well - yearly average change of domestic
material consumption and GDP between 2000 and 2007 by member state
12
EE
RO
no decoupling
10
LT
average annual growth of DMC (%)
8
6
SL
LV
IE BG
ES CY
SK
4
SE
AT
PT DK
FI
relative decoupling
EL
PL
2
EU27
CZ
BE
FR
UK
HU
0
DE
IT
absolute decoupling
NL
LU
-2
-4
0
1
Source: Eurostat (2011)
2
3
4
5
6
average annual growth rate of GDP (%)
7
8
9
10
Track record: the challenge is bigger then assumed by
mainstream policy scenario
It is clear that on basis of current policy scenario the world is
heading for a 3.5-4C temperature increase by 2100 (IEA,
2012)
Keeping the 2C target requires four times higher rate of future
decarbonisation (reduction of CO2 emitted per unit GDP).
Global ghg emissions keep on growing
Ghg emission reductions in Europe were more due to
crises to climate policy – no signs of decoupling economic
growth from emissions
No paradigm change visible yet
7
Track record: the challenge is bigger then assumed by
mainstream policy scenario
It is clear that on basis of current policy scenario the world is
heading for a 3.5-4C temperature increase by 2100 (IEA,
2012)
Keeping the 2C target requires four times higher rate of future
decarbonisation (reduction of CO2 emitted per unit GDP).
Global ghg emissions keep on growing
Ghg emission reductions in Europe were more due to
crises to climate policy – no signs of decoupling economic
growth from emissions
No paradigm change visible yet
8
Gross domestic consumption of energy per GDP (chain-linked volumes – reference
year 2005) – kilogram of oil equivalent (kgoe) per 1000 euros – 2002, 2012
C
Main types of fuel in the energy generation, % – for MS-s above EU27 average
share of coal
Source: Eurostat (2011)
EU Climate and Energy Package 2014
• The 40% ghg reduction target cannot be called too ambitious;
the 2020 targets are to be overperformed due to sluggish
growth and recessions
• The 30% energy savings target is below expectation it is not
satisfactory to reach the 2050 goals and it does not use the
potential of ambitious energy efficiency objectives to induce
investments /that everybody wants/ and create jobs /that
again everybody seems to support/ (Juncker Commission..).
Progress in energy efficiency had been one of the weak points
of European climate policies, the 2020 targets are not going to
be reached and now the 2030 targets reflect a business as
usual policy approach missing also to set binding targets.
EU Climate and Energy Package 2014
• The proposed objective of increasing the share of renewable
energy to at least 27% of the EU's energy consumption by 2030
cannot be called as an ambitious target and while binding on
the EU, the target would not be translated into national targets
through EU legislation. How is this to be achieved in practice by
’open method of co-ordination’? A conflict potential has already
been set.
• Is this a realistic objective, can it be achieved?
• Yes, as cheap labour is not the basis of comppetitiveness, so can
cheap energy also not be
• We need investments to embark the economy on a sustainable
track, this brings jobs and growth
• Countries, regions with particular challenge need an EU
compensation and investment boost /EIB/
• This cannot be a reason to give up climate policy objectives and
make the Paris Summit in 2015 a disaster
The challenge of the transition to a low-carbon economy
on industrial jobs in Europe
Implementing climate targets will genuinely transform
industrial jobs, in quantitative and qualitative terms:
There is a consensus that although climate policies would
have no major aggregate impact on the number of jobs,
a massive redistribution of jobs is to be expected:
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•
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- New jobs are being created,
- Existing jobs will be transformed (`greened` jobs)
- Jobs will also disappear
- Job quality (not just green, but decent)!
- With huge differences by region, branch and LM
segment!
Green jobs: the positive agenda
• Only net effects can answer the question if green jobs help to
fight unemployment.
• Net employment effect = gross employment effect - substitution
effect +/- income effect (+ exports – imports)
Green Jobs are not a nececessarily a good indicator for the
protection of the environment: if fuel efficient car
manufacturing is seen as ‚green job‘ LESS CARS would result in
less green jobs!? Wit view to jobs in waste management, less
waste would mean less green jobs!?
Focusing on green jobs by investments into a green economy
(green growth) is indeed a useful policy, BUT it is only PART of
the FULL STORY
- The green transformation should encompass the entirety of the
whole economy
Are Green jobs, good jobs?
• Social Criteria are not included in the definition.
• Public Image: well paid high-tech jobs
• Reality: Green jobs are (often) characterized by heavy physical
labour, health problems and precarious employment.
• Waste management: classified as green, but poor job quality
• Organic farming: ondoubtedly green, but high work intensity
long working time and lower productivity
• In renewable energy, many new green jobs are of poorer
quality than e.g. in traditional energy generation (trade union
representation is often lacking – e.g. wind farms)
• A more decentralized character of these new jobs poses new
challenges
 Green Jobs are not automatically good jobs, but we have to
make them good jobs!
Job potential
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Employment in Germany´s renewable energies sector
More than 380,000 Germans work in the renewables sector
Source: BMU 2012, Wuppertal Institute
Typical differential costs of the German „Energiewende“
All sectors; according to German Federal Ministry of the Environment „Lead
Scenario 2012“
Source: BMU 2012
12.04.2017
Share of power costs as measured by GDP in Germany, %
„From an aggregated perspective, the increase in power prices is not
as dramatic as often asserted in public debates“ (Expert Commission
for the Assessment of the first monitoring report on the
Energiewende, December 2012)
12.04.2017
Source: DUH (2013)
The social dimension:Utility bill arrears in EU member states
(2007 and 2010, in % of total population)
• IE and CY: data for 2010 = 2009
Source: EU SILC data-basis (2011b)
Challenge for trade unions in the broader context of the
green transformation
EU energy policy:
Binding emission targets (2030) necessary to match long term targets
Comprehensive policiy mix: ETS (upgrade), emission targets,
standards and carbon tax
Balanced approach with view to affrodability, social aspects (social
tariffs)
Competitiveness not be based on cheap energy and cheap labour
All this should not compromise low carbon economy targets
Short term challenge: austerity and „environmental dumping“ by US
and China
Controversy abour car emission targets/ supercredits
300 bn additional yearly investment need in EU – clarification of
economic fundaments
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Trade union role: the positive agenda: active policy role
and social dialogue to meet the challenge
Trade unions are committed to more ambitious climate policy at the
same time demand a framework that provides a balanced
approach: just transition
This makes a comprehensive policy approach necessary: climate +
employment + training + social + industrial policy
Such a comprehensive policy framework does not exist yet
Current employment policies are not fit to cope with the more
ambitious climate policy that would be needed for the 2050 targets
Managing labour market transitions would need a European
Employment Fund for the Green Transition (like Globalisation
Adjustment Fund)
Just burden sharing during the transition - job quality and managing
job transitions
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