Transcript Kazakhstan - PromitheasNet

6th International Scientific Conference on
Energy and Climate Change
PROMITHEAS – 4
Kazakhstan Climate Change policy mixtures of
PROMITHEAS-4 project: key issues of national report
Prof. Sergey INYUTIN,
Head of the PROMITHEAS-4 Project in
Kazakhstan
Athens 9-11 October 2013
PROMITHEAS - 4
Content
1. Introduction
2. Climate Change policy mixtures in
Kazakhstan
- Developing three scenario(BAU,OPT and PES)
with LEAP
- Results, assessment of the policy mixtures
- Best policy mixture
3. Future opportunities
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PROMITHEAS - 4
SRC KAZHIMIMVEST, Team members
• JSC Scientific Production Firm (1992). The Department of scientific research and innovative
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clean environment technologies (DSRICET) deals with scientific research and consultancy in
optimization of technological processes taking into account innovations, environment saving,
technologies in various areas of Energy Conservation and Climate Change.
The institution leads the collaboration of partners such as Scientific-Research Institute of
Economy, Information, Transport, Telecommunications (EITT), Turan-Astana University, AulieAta State University of Taraz City, Kaz Scientific Reseach Institute for Ecology and Climate
(KAZNIIEK) and established the Climate Change Working Group (CCWG) to contribute in the
development of reliable policy portfolios for effective adaptation/mitigation actions in support of
the implementation of Climate Change Policy on national and regional levels
The members of CCWG has broad experience in providing analytical works, international
coordination, project activities, education ,knowledge dissemination, Legislative activities, sc
scientific research, logistics, work in close cooperation with key ministries on related issues.
Key Team members:
Dr. Y.Kalashnikov -President of SRC KAHIMINVEST
Prof. S. Inyutin- Head of the Project in Kazakhstan ,Member of SC PROMITHEAS-4,Head of
CCWG
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Dr.I. Yesserkepova- member of CCWG, Deputy Director of “KAZNIIEK”under MEP
Dr.L. Inyutina-member of CCWG, Head o the Department DSRICET, KAZHIMINVEST
Other Young scientists: Salyutina, Sultankulova, etc.
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National Workshop “Development of Mitigation/Adaptation Climate Cha
nge Policy Portfolios for Kazakhstan” 14 June 2013, Astana
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PROMITHEAS - 4
National Workshop “Development of Mitigation/Adaptation
Climate Change Policy Portfolios for Kazakhstan”
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Kazakhstan nominators in
PROMITHEAS-4
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The Seminar on “Developing National
Climate Change policy mixtures – Case
Study” is the second part of the Training
process of PROMITHEAS – 4.(December
2012)
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Kaz participant: Sultankulova Aygoz, MS,
Turan-Astana University Teacher
The Training session on LEAP organized by IHS
was successfully completed in Vienna. Instructor
was Dr. Charlie HEAPS and representatives from all
the 12 beneficiary countries, as well as from Greece
and Austria participated.( Viena, September 2011)
Kaz participant: Salyutina Yekaterina, MS, TuranAstana University
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Inna Kim ( “Institute Energya”), MS, engineer, has received Certificate on
Training Course (E-learning) in 2012
PROMITHEAS - 4
National Workshop “Development of
Mitigation/Adaptation Climate Change
Policy Portfolios for Kazakhstan”
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Session on National report "Development and assessment of Mitigation/Adaptation climate change policy
portfolios for Republic of Kazakhstan“
PROMITHEAS-4 project in Kazakhstan: goal, tasks, implementation"
Ass.Prof.,S. Inyutin, Scientific Head of the Project, Turan-Astana University A pathway to Mitigation/Adaptation
policy portfolios
PROMITHEAS – 4 A pathway to M/A policy portfolios
Ms. Eleni-Danai Mavraki, MSc. Project Manager, KEPA, Hellas
Spectrum of CC policy measures and instruments, model and key assumptions
L. Inyutina Head of experts group, MSc.,KAZHIMINVEST
Interpretation of three scenarios developed with LEAP
A. Sultankulova, MSc., teacher of Turan-Astana University
Conclusions, observed needs and gaps
L. Inyutina, KAZHIMINVEST, I.Yesserkepova, Deputy Head of KAZNIIEK, MEP
PROMITHEAS – 4 as a tool for policy makers
Eleni-Danai Mavraki, MSc. Project Manager, KEPA, Hellas
• Round table discussions
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PROMITHEAS - 4
Kazakhstan Climate Change Policy
Kazakhstan’s CC Policy is based on the Strategic Development Plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan 2020;The
Intersectoral Program “Zhasyl Damu 2010-2014”; The MEP Concept” Green Economy”
Voluntary CC obligations to reduce GHG emissions 15% by 2015 and 25% by 2050
RES support law(2009)
National ETS in place since 2013 (Ecological Code 2011)
Reducing excessive dependency on primary industries and
commodity exports, mainly oil & gas
National oil resrve of 39.8 billion barrels (2010), the country’s major revenue generator,
is estimated to last for only 63 years.
Addressing lack of capacity and institutional structure,
especially in the water and energy sectors
Has significant gaps in energy and infrastructure sector, esp. on appropriate policies,
markets and institutional frameworks to allow efficient development of those sectors.
Protecting its fragile ecology (semi-desert geography) from
the adverse impacts of climate change
Kazakhstan has been identified as one of the countries with high vulnerability and low
adaptation potential for climate change effects.
BASIC FACTS
Official name
Republic of Kazakhstan
Capital
Astana
Official language
Kazakh and Russian
Type of government
dominant-party,
unitary presidential
state
Leadership (Pres.)
Nursultan Nazarbayev
GDP (2011)
$186 billion (total)
$11,167 (per capita)
Population
16,911,900
(Jan. 1, 2013 est.)
Major Industries
crude oil, base metals,
chemicals, food ,
agriculture
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Kazakhstan CC Policy: Status in KP-CP2
Source : CDC Climate Research
Kazakhstan emitted 290
Mt CO2 eq. in 2009 (6%
of the EU total output;
23% below 1990 country
level)
KP was ratified in 2009;
Law on Amendments
(2010) enhanced the
country’s ability to
participate in carbon
markets (facilitates JI by
excluding from
environmental licensing
procedures; GHG
emissions inventory on
annual basis.
Notes: Carrying-over calculation is based on 2008-2010 emissions.
1A positive percentage indicates that the average annual emissions for the 2008-2010 period (including credits
and debits under LULUCF) are above the permitted emissions under the KP-CP2. The year 2010 is the latest
year for which data have been validated in the framework of the UNFCCC.
2Amendments including Belarus and Kazakhstan for the KP-CP1 have not been ratified so far.
3 Croatia and Iceland will fulfill their commitments jointly with the EU in accordance with Article 4 of the Kyoto
Protocol.
4The EU-27 countries have differentiated commitments under the KP-CP1. The provided data therefore
aggregates those of the concerned countries. According to the European Climate and Energy Package, countries
are not allowed to use their surplus of AAUs for 2013-2020.
5EIT: Economies in transition. Here, only non-European countries are included: Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine
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Data collection
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Economic data: national statistics, forecast MEDT RK, protocol No.29 dated
28.08.2012, http://www.minplan.gov.kz/economya; GDP growth: according to the
IMF, 2011, World Economic Outlook,
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/pdf/text.pdf ; growth of the
population of Kazakhstan, according to the “2010 World Population Prospects” of the
United Nations (http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp)
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Energy data: UN statistics (energy balances and energy profiles of countries,
adapted from the national statistics, including by sector. http:// un.org / UNSD /
energy / balance / ebep_pdf.htm, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/pubs
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National LEAP Model Construction: given the general approaches and
requirements for all countries and national characteristics
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National characteristics, taken for consideration for the model: climate
(temperature, precipitation, etc.), water resources, land / forests, the potential
renewable energy sources; energy efficiency, global trends (fuel prices), national (the
price of electricity, heat), measures national policies (subsidies, the price of carbon,
etc.), types and costs of technology
PROMITHEAS - 4
Developing of ВAU scenario
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Climate is continental; in the North, winter-summer from -18 ° C to -19 ° C
in the South, winter-summer -3 ° C to 29 ° C (Source: SNC 2,2009)
Precipitation 2000-2010: from 200 mm(2000) to 369mm (2003,2004) and 120 mm( 2010),
(Source: MEP Newsletter / Kazgidromet, 2011)
Floods - according to the Ministry of Emergency operational data (2010), an increase to 2050
of up to 3 per year
Hot days: from 21(2000) to 15(2010) (source: MEP operational data), the trend continues
Frost- varies greatly depending on the location of construction, in particular in Astana the fiveday temperature is -35 ° C, and the average annual temperature is 1.8 ° C (source : local
regulation) Warming is assumed and decrease the number of frost days per year.
Policy and measures: Fix-in-Tariff, ETS are expected to come in 2013, the subsidiesaccording to legislation (source: govermnetal operational data) .
Desertification: according to Program “Zhasyl Damu” , land degradation by 2014 is expected
to 0.05 hа; afforestation to increase to 65 hectares (an increase of at least 1% per year),
source: MEP Program “Zhasyl Damu”
Fuel prices (coal, gas oil) and carbon prices- according to the IEA Outlook 2010
Water use : in general, the trend will continue, for irrigation of 10 years was reduced by 17%
(MEP operational data)
Policy portfolio does not include measures for adaptation
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PROMITHEAS - 4
KAZAKHSTAN: BAU (2000 – 2050)
POPULATION,
GDP REAL, INCOME- GROWTH
T
Тable 1: United Nations projections for Kazakhstan population (UN, 2010)
http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/p2k0data.asp
Average annual rate of change (%)
Variant
2005201020152020203020402010
2015
2020
2025
2035
2045
Medium 1.10
1.05
0.92
0.73
0.58
0.61
20452050
0.61
20502055
0.41
Table 2: Projection for the Kazakhstan GDP (IFM, 2011)
Year
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual percent change of GDP (%)
5.9
5.6
6.5
6.4
GDP growth rate until 2050 remains at this level, the structure by sector
varies according MEBP assumptions, in particular the growth of the
manufacturing sector will reach 13% of GDP by 2017, the growth of the
mining industry will grow from 19% (2012-2014) to 48% after 2017.
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The growth of income received similar GDP
growth / capita
PROMITHEAS - 4
Developing BAU
Energy production by types of
Energy consumption, mln. t.o.e.
fuel, mln. t.o.e.
Energy demand by Housing
Energy consumption by sectors, mln. t.o.e.
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sector (Housholds), mln. t.o.e.
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BAU: GHG emissions per sectors and in ENERGY
sector, mln. tons CO2 eq.
Environment: Global Warming Potential
Scenario: Business As Usual, Fuel: All Fuels, GHG: All GHGs
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Developing of OPT scenario
The main characteristics of the OPT are further wide promotion of RES development, the
introduction of energy efficiency measures in all sectors of economy. Nuclear power plant is
taken into consideration for construction by 2030 according Strategic Plan 2020.
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- Mitigation (This policy portfolio sets stringent mitigation targets in all sectors. It is oriented
towards the principles of the EU climate change policy and adjusted according to the needs of
Kazakhstan)
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Policy portfolio includes measures for adaptation (water use for irrigation is expected to
increase by 1,5% annually )
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Key assumptions:
Demographics: “medium variant” as presented in the table 1.
Economy: the growth of GDP, GDP distribution per sector as set a in BAU. GDP per capita:
projections are based on those of GDP and population
Precipitation: Annual precipitation in Kazakhstan ranges from 120 to 250 mm for the Opt scenario
slight decrease by 0.6%.
Temperature temperature reaches +0.3oC, in comparison to the reference time period.
Frequency of extreme events, Flash floods, Heat waves, Frost days: The assumption is the same
as in BAU.
Water resources: Since no other information is available the assumptions for the Opt scenario is
that the growth rate for surface waters will follow the growth rate of precipitation in the same
scenario.
P& Ms: FIT, Quota- since 2013; subsidies-according to legislation;
Fuel prices :as in BAU.
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PROMITHEAS - 4
OPT(2000 – 2050)
Energy Demand in Households, M.toe
Energy Demand in Industry, M.toe
Generating Capacities(MJ)
Losses,% (heat, coal, electricity)
Scenario: Optimistic
PROMITHEAS - 4
Developing OPT (2000 – 2050)
GHG emissions per sectors, Global warming
potential Mtons.CO2eq.
Environment: Global Warming Potential
Scenario: Optimistic, Fuel: All Fuels, GHG: All GHGs
Environment: Global Warming Potential
Scenario: OPT, Fuel: All Fuels, GHG: All GHGs
PROMITHEAS - 4
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Developing of PES scenario
The development of policy portfolio for this scenario co insist with policy instruments applied
after December 2010 and are characterized by more smoothly implementing climate change
and energy efficiency improvement policy, according to the goals indicated by the Strategic
Plan 2020 and GOK programs mentioned in previous sections. It is assumed that targets set in
GPFIID are achieved by 2015 accordingly. The efforts are focused more on the energy sector,
including modernization and expansion of existing Power Plants and construction of new ones
as set in the governmental plans. At the same time a lot of pilot projects will be implemented in
the Housing sector to improve Energy Efficiency, energy audits will cover more that 50% of
households, introduction of ISO 50001 is assumed in industry, some fuel switch to gas and
electricity in transport sector.
RES technologies are developing, but not still competitive to coal.RES share is more than 3%
in energy mix.
For this scenario the increase of energy efficiency is considered as an energy policy
component rather than a climate change policy one. The development and modernization of
the energy sector will not only allow reduction of GHG emissions, but will also create a more
preferable framework for foreign investments in the country.
The efforts of the country will focus on the energy sector development and energy saving in
households. No Nuclear is assumed to be introduced, but RES will be introduced according to
the set indicators.
Implementation of climate change policy is not so strict under this scenario and will not help to
achieve the obligation target to decrease GHG emissions 5% towards 1990.The installed
capacity is increased 14 GW in total , GHG emissions in 2020 exceeds the 1990 level 1%.
No adaptation policy is implemented.
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PROMITHEAS - 4
Developing of PES scenario
Final energy demand
In households
Scenario: Pessimistic
Final energy demand
in Industry
Scenario: Pessimistic
Environment: Global Warming Potential
Scenario: Pessimistic, Fuel: All Fuels, GHG: All GHGs
GHG emissions per
sectors,
Mton CO2 eq.
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PROMITHEAS - 4
Results of 3 scenarios according to LEAP
RESULTS of LEA modeling:
for the BAU in 2020 GHG emissions amounted to
386,1 MtCO2eq., Total primary energy consumption
by 75.56 Mtoe (2020), an increase of 2.2 times
compared with a year 2009.Dolya renewable energy in
the total energy mix to 2020 0.28%.
Environment: Global Warming Potential
Fuel: All Fuels, GHG: All GHGs
for OPT in 2020 share of RES - 10.1% in the total
energy mix by 2020. Total primary energy
consumption is reduced by 7, 5% compared with BAU
in 2020 due to the measures implemented.
GHG emissions with direct effect in 2020 amounted to
335,8 MtCO2eq, a decrease of 50,3 MtCO2eq relative
to BAU (13%)
1990г.
362.7 млн. т СО2 экв.
For PES in 2020 share of RES - 3.5% in the total
Source: table P3, page 15,National
energy mix in 2020, and 2.07 times increase in the
Report on GHG emissions inventory
total primary energy consumption in comparison with
for 1990-2009 (NIR), available at :
http://www.eco.gov.kz,
2009 (74.34 million tons of oil equivalent by the result
eco.gov.kz/files/o_kadastre.doc
LEAP). GHG emissions in 2020 - 372,4 MtCO2eq
(more OPT, less than BAU by 13.7 Mt CO2 eq)
Total GHG emissions (in MtCO2eq)
Scenario
2000
2020
2050
BAU
143.7
386.1
945.6
Opt
143.7
335.8
763.4
Pes
143.7
372.4
988.8
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Assessment of the policy mixtures in OPT
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: Score of best aggregate performance.
PROMITHEAS - 4
Kazakhstan: Best policy mixture
Criteria
Env.Perf.
Env.Perform. 0.154
Polit.Accept. 0.769
Feas/Implem. 0.077
Polit./Accept
.
0.149
0.745
0.106
Feas. Impl.
Row sum
0.200
0.700
0.100
0.503
2.214
0.283
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Weight
coefficient
0.168
0.738
0.094
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Future opportunities
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Comments received (next slide)
Needs and gaps observed
Future cooperation with GOK for policy mix improvement
Possibilities for cooperation(ADB project on CC)
Need for further training on CC policy, assessment,
business and investments
( transition to “Green economy” assessment is about 2% of
GDP, during 2010-2049-av.0.7% of GDP)
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PROMITHEAS - 4
Goal on transmission to Green Economy
is added to existing goals (MEP)
Additional goals
Sector
Goal description
2020
2030
2050
Decrease of water deficit on national
level
By 2020 water supply providing of
population
By 2020 provide water to
agriculture
Solve water problems
Water resources deficit decrease in
the basin
Max provide water to the basin(by
2025)
By 2030 absence of water deficit
in the basin
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Productivity
3-4 times increase
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Crops (ton./ha)
1,4
2,0
2,0
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Irigation costs (m3/ton)
450
330
250
Energy intensity of GDP decrease
towards 2010 level
25%
(10% by 2015)
30%
50%
Share of alternative resources for
power production:
 Alternative sources,
 Gas power plants
Gasification o regions
Солнечных и ветряных: не менее 3% ~30%
к 2017 г.
50%
20%2
Аkmola, Karaganda
25%2
Northen and East Oblasts
30%
GHG emissions decrease in Power
sector towards recent level
2012 level
-15%
-40%
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Water resources
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Agriculture
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Energy Efficiency
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Power Sector
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Air contamination
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Wastes utilization
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Solid Wastes disposal
100%
100%
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Landfields
~95%
100%
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Share of utilized wastes
40%
50%
1 Solar, Wind, hydro, Nuclear
2 CHP fuel switch to gas
Source: MEP WG
Pollutants SOX, NOX into
environment
EU level
PROMITHEAS - 4
THANK YOU
FOR ATTENTION!
[email protected]
KAZHIMINVEST
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