Transcript A Study - 日本大学経済学部

A Study on Economic Development in
the New Silk Road
Kazakhstan
Mukhamediyev BULAT
Kazakh National University
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Territory of the republic (thsd. sq. km) 2724,9
Population (1.05.2011, thsd., person) 16 536
Density
6.06
Capital was moved from Almaty
to
Astana in 1997
Economic Development of Kazakhstan in
2000-2010
• Rate of GDP growth 9-10 % last 10 years
– The extraction of natural resources
– Favorable investment climate
– Developed financial sector
• The Economy is closely integrated into global
processes
– Reflects the cycles of the global economy, all its ups and
downs
– Due to the structure of exports it is able to extract excess
profits in times of crisis
Rate of GDP growth
GDP growth
Inflation
• 6-8 % in period 2000–2006
• Up to 19 % in 2007-2008
• The banking bubble (excessive borrowing)
• The real estate bubble (housing prices rise in ten
times)
• They burst with the onset of the global financial crisis
• The sharp decline in lending to the economy
• The slowdown in economic activity
• Decline in real incomes
Government measures
• Increases in pensions and salaries for public
sector employees
• Support the banking system
• Strengthening the raw material orientation of
the economy
• In 2010 exports of mineral products - 74.9%
– including oil and associated gas 50% of exports
The Resource Curse
• Increased production of oil and gas
condensate
• Reserves will last for 35-50 years
• Dutch disease
• The development of economic and political
institutions, the OF
• Diversification of the economy
• Financial sector development, access to
investment resources
• The increase in total factor productivity
REER
Estimated crude oil production in Kazakhstan,
mln barrels per day
Oil
• Tengiz and Kashagan - an annual increase of 5
million tons
• In the next 10 years the RK may enter to the
five largest suppliers of mineral resources
• Problems in oil refining sector
The structure of oil and gas condensate in the ROK in
2000-2011, mln. T
The structure of oil and gas condensate in the
ROK in 2000-2011, mln. T
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
0
Export
Domestic consumption
Import
Economic Development
• High prices are favorable for the development
of the economy of Kazakhstan.
• However, the productivity decreases for a
large part of non-oil economy.
• Liquidity in the banking system is restored, but
new loans made ​in small quantities.
• The most important factor of the growth is the
price of oil. In 2010, they rose by 41%.
• Fixed capital investment has shifted from
foreign sources to domestic sources.
• The state budget deficit - about 2%.
The price of Brent crude oil, U.S. $ per
barrel
Industry
Foreign Direct Investment in fixed assets for the years
1993 -2010, USD million
GDP growth
Real GDP
growth, %
Nominal
GDP,
$ billion
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
9,8
13,5
9,8
9,3
9,6
9,7
10,7
8,9
3,2
1,2
7,0
18,3
22,2
24,6
30,8
43,2
57,1
81
105
132
113
146
Oil Extraction and its Price
Inflation
Export and Import, 2010
Export, %
Import, %
13.4
45.8
Russia
8.1
37
Europe
54.1
25.3
Italy
16.2
5.3
France
7.5
1.7
25.7
21.7
China
17.1
13.3
Turkey
2.1
2.1
Japan
0.9
1.9
Korea
0.4
1.8
CIS
Asia
Risks
• The main risk to Kazakhstan is the price of oil.
According to the WB the oil price rise by 1%
leads to an increase in GDP by 0.08%.
• Oil in 2009 was about 70 percent of exports,
26 percent of GDP.
• Diversification of export destinations:
- KPC and Atyrau-Samara
- Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
- Atasu-Alashankou
• External risks to the financial sector
• The instability of the flow of portfolio
investment (12% of GDP in 2010)
• External debt equels about 80% of GDP.
Customs union
• Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus - 01.01.2010.
• Creating a single economic space2012 году.
• Для Казахстана средний тариф увеличился с 6.7 до
11.5.
• В 2010 году общий объем импорта остался почти
неизменным.
• Однако, импорт за пределами ТС сократился на 20%,
а из Китая – на 48%.
• В 2011 импорт из Китая медленно
восстанавливается, а из Европы и Северной
Америки снижается.
Транссиб
Transsib––1111500
500km
км
14
14суток
days
West
Западная
Europe
Европа
- China-Западный
– 8 445 km
Китай – 8 445 км
10
10суток
days
до45
45days
суток
The
Морской
sea route
путь
through
через the
Suez
Суэцкий
Canal
канал
– 24 –000
24 km
000 км
Impact of the new Silk Road
• The Economy of Kazakhstan
• Other countries