Transcript WTO and U.S. farm policy: Don’t panic, but pay attention

Policy Response to Challenges in Agriculture
and Rural Development in the Europe and
Central Asia Region:
Sharing Experience and
Enhancing Cooperation in the Region
William H. Meyers
Professor of Agricultural Economics
and Co-Director, FAPRI
University of Missouri
Twenty-Seventh FAO Regional Conference for Europe
Yerevan, Armenia
13 May 20
Outline






Food price surge and (partial) retreat
Macroeconomic crisis and (slow) recovery
Diverse impacts of and response to the crises
How is food security jeopardized?
Major uncertainties, challenges and
opportunities
Policy priorities for discussion


Short term
Medium to Long term
Comparison of real GDP growth rates in
selected regions
10
8
World
6
4
Major advanced
economies (G7)
2
European Union
0
-2
-4
Central and
eastern Europe
-6
-8
Commonwealth
of Independent
States
-5
-10
0
Romania
Slovenia
Hungary
Turkey
Bulgaria
Slovak Republic
Lithuania
Latvia
Armenia
Ukraine
Estonia
Russian Federation
2010
Georgia
Croatia
Czech Republic
Montenegro
Serbia
Bosnia and …
Belarus
TFYR Macedonia
Kazakhstan
Poland
Kyrgyz Republic
Tajikistan
Albania
Azerbaijan
2009
Republic of Moldova
-20
Turkmenistan
-15
Uzbekistan
Diverse impacts on real GDP growth rates in
Europe and Central Asia, 2009 to 2011
2011
20
15
10
5
Diverse response: share of stimulus in GDP and
importance of social protection in the stimulus
France
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Germany
Poland
Russian Federation
Turkey
Kazakhstan
Georgia
0
5
10
15
share of social protection (where available)
20
25
30
35
40
total stimulus as % of 2008 GDP
45
Diverse structure: share of rural population
in the total, 1992 compared with 2008
1992
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2008
Success in growth of net exports from the region
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Ukraine
Russian
Federation
Kazakhstan
How is food security jeopardized?

Reduction in the quantity and/or quality of
food purchases



High food prices
Loss of employment or reduction of wages
and income
Market disruption or policy reaction that
impairs availability
How is food security jeopardized?

Reduction in food production



High prices of feed and other inputs
Lack of credit access
Reduction in the quantity and/or quality of
food aid



High food prices
Decline of government/international donor
financial resources
Macro instability, market disruption or policy
reaction that impairs availability
A more uncertain future
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Road to economic recovery?
Timing and size of oil price volatility?
Will biofuel policies change?
Will other policies be unstable?
Will DDA be completed in near term?
Climate change and policy impacts?
Wider range of possible outcomes
Complicated decision making and planning
Larger impacts on low income consumers
Challenge and Opportunity
Challenge – devise strategies that are
sustainable in very uncertain conditions
Opportunity – focus on policies that contribute
to long-term policy goals
National and international policy actions
needed
1.
2.
3.


Short run
Long run
Policy priorities

Short run







Prudent use of limited budget resources
Avoid short-term policies that conflict with longterm goals
Food assistance and early warning
Twin track approach – food aid and production aid
Continue economic and structural reforms
Complete the Doha Round of trade negotiations,
Restore trust in the international trading system
and advance new member accession
Policy priorities

Long run (but start yesterday)






Increasing economic growth is best strategy
Investment (not land grabs) in agric. development
AND R&D for production and post harvest
Improve market functioning to facilitate price
transmission and integration with global markets
Risk management tools for farmers-men and women
Enhance rural development and rural infrastructure
investments
Invest in social protection or safety net measures to
protect vulnerable populations
Conclusions

Not simple formulas or quick remedies



Engage policy dialogue among experts in the
region exchanging successes and failures



Conditions in the region are diverse
Situation is very volatile and persistent
Food and agricultural policies and reforms
Climate change adaptation and mitigation
Dialogue begins here at high level but can
continue among expert groups
Thank you!
CONTACT INFORMATION:
EMAIL: [email protected]
WEB: WWW.FAPRI.MISSOURI.EDU