Transcript Shared Vision for South Asia - Pakistan Institute of Trade And

Shared Vision for South Asia
Fostering Sustainable Development in South Asia
Responding to Challenges
SDPI, Islamabad
23rD Dec 2009
PALASH KANTI DAS
Oxfam International
Outline of presentation
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Idea of Shared Vision
The context of vulnerability
GHGs emission at South Asia level
Climate change impact and its implications
Regional cooperation and what we have at
SAARC level
• What would constitute our shared vision
What is Shared Vision
– Bali Action Plan
“……for long-term cooperative action, including a
long-term global goal for emission reductions,
to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention,
in accordance with the provisions and principles of
the Convention, in particular the principle of
common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities, and taking into account
social and economic conditions and other
relevant factors”
Bali Action Plan
SHARED VISION
Global emissions reduction
pathway and key principles
of future action to confront
climate change.
Mitigation
Adaptation
Finance
Technology
- Binding
emission
reduction
targets for rich
(Annex I)
countries.
- Actions by
developing
(Non-Annex I)
countries
supported by
rich countries.
Globally
increased efforts
to adapt the world
to climate
change,
especially in
developing
countries.
Search for new
financial
resources to
help
developing
countries both
to mitigate and
to adapt.
Increased cooperation for the
uptake and wide
diffusion of clean
technologies.
Long term goal………
• Level of stabilization of GHG concentration – 350ppm CO2 eq
• A limit of the global average temperature increase – [1.5] degree
Celsius above the pre-industrial level and [2] degree Celsius
above the pre-industrial level
• 2050 is appropriate time frame for long term goal. GHG emission
reduction – 50 percent of 1990 level, 85-95% for developed
counties percent of 1990 level (there are figures with base year
1990, 2000, without base year)
• Global average GHG emission per capita reduced to about
2tCO2
What it means for South Asia:
• Position varies from country to country
– Prioritisation differs
– National interest linked with global
negotiations
– Political alignment with various blocks
• Inward and outward looking
strategies
• Framing South Asian issues
The context of Vulnerability
Vulnerability: A theoretical
perspectives
Vulnerability is a state …..
V ∞ f E * S * 1/R
(Modified from Metzger et al., 2006)
E is the measure of severity of the change
S is the sensitivity of the system (or the subject) to the
exposure
R is the strength of the system to respond, defy and
even take advantage of the imminent condition(s)
V ∞ f E * S * 1/R implies
In human systems
R is a measure of capital that are enjoyed by the human system
R ∞ f (Social capital, Human capital, Physical capital,
Financial capital, Natural capital)
The higher is the value of R, therefore
the higher is the value of any of these
capitals (or assets) enjoyed by a human
system, the lower is the vulnerability
…………….
V ∞ f E * S * 1/R further
elaborates…….
•Low E means Low V [E can only be so when new
emissions are reduced significantly, and old
emissions are captured]
•If E is infinitesimally low, no need for high R
Hence South Asia shared vision
should consider equally:
- A drastic emission reduction plan, within a short
period of time
- An agreed upon peaking in a shorter time frame
- Adaptation actions through enhancement of
adaptive capacity
- Assistance for R by means of financing,
technology transfer, skills …..
Emissions Scenario in South
Asia
Per Capita GHGs emission by region, 1995-2000
25
Mt CO2 per capita
20
15
10
5
0
East Asia and Pacific
Europe and Central Asia
Latin America and
Caribbeans
Middle East and North
Africa
Regions
Source: WRI (2009)
South Asia
Sub Saharan Africa
USA
GHG contributions by country 2000
45.00%
40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
Afghanistan
Bangladesh
Source: WRI (2009)
Bhutan
Srilanka
Pakistan
Nepal
India N2O
IndiaCH4
India CO2
Maldives
GHGs emission by sector 2000
100
Agriculture, Land
use and forestry
90
80
Waste
70
Total Mt CO2
60
Transport
50
40
Industry
30
20
Energy
10
0
Bangladesh
Source: WRI (2009)
Srilanka
Pakistan
Nepal
India
The real implication
Climate Change impacts in South
Asia
Sea level
rise
Glacier
melting
Yes
Temp
increase
Yes
Frequent
Floods
Frequent
drought
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Afg
BD
Bhutan
India
Yes
Maldives
Yes
Nepal
Pakistan
Yes
Srilanka
Yes
Source: WB (2009)
Yes
Yes
Yes
Climate Change implications in
South Asia
• Water Security
• Food Security
• Livelihoods Security
• Energy Security
Equitable Growth and Development
Other factors….
• population: 2.2 billion by 2050
• 70% in rural areas and 75% belongs to poorest
group
• 60% of them are in agriculture
• MDG achievements and beyond that
Regional Approach
• Water Security – regional
management across basins
equitable
water
• Food Security – Ensuring food production and food
availability regionally
• Energy Security – ensuring access to energy and
energy cooperation
• Livelihoods Security
address agriculture
–
regional
approach
to
•Along with al those regional disaster management
and preparedness approach
……Now the shared vision for SA
Outward
Inward
• In line with FAB
• guided by regional
approaches to four
security
issues
mentioned earlier
• Common
strategic
Political approach
Initiatives taken at SAARC
level
What we have now at SAARC level
• SAARC CC Action Plan:
•No concrete Action Plan rather an
agreed document
•7 Thematic areas
•Initial period : 2009-11
•Core focus is national level action plan
adaptation
•Mutual
building
consultation
and
capacity
Contd….SAARC Declaration:
 Climate Change is mentioned only under Environment
 Energy (Para 8, 9): more energy cooperation and focus on renewable
energy, efficiency and trading; tech share…..
regional hydro, grid and gas pipelines connectivity
Para 10 -14 : ‘…to intensify cooperation within expanded regional
environmental protection framework..’
‘…cooperation for capacity building, CDM, promotion for
advocacy and awareness..’
In depth regional study ‘Climate Justice – Human Dimension of
CC”
Agreed on Per Capita Emission, historical responsibility and
capabilities
Contd….Env Min Meeting in Oct 09:
 Next Summit Theme on “Climate
Change”
 At least one sharing meeting every
year
 Common
position
on
CC
negotiations
……Shared vision should be….
SAARC cooperative actions towards
long-term goals for greener equitable
development paths based on
Common but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities within South Asia and
Social and economic conditions and other
relevant factors
Thanks
Palash Kanti Das
South Asia Climate Change Lead
Oxfam International
Email: [email protected]