Transcript Emission projections - Canadian approach

The Canadian Approach To
Compiling Emission Projections
Marc Deslauriers
Environment Canada
Pollution Data Division
Science and Technology Branch
Projections expert panel (PEP) meeting
Dublin, Ireland
25th October 2007
Outline
 Explain the emission projections framework used in
Canada
 Discuss the current application for the emission
projections
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Modeling Framework
 A modeling framework called E3MC (Energy, Environment,
Economy Model for Canada) is currently used for the estimation of
future emissions for GHG and air pollutants
 The modeling framework was developed during the past 1.5 years
and includes two models
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An energy demand model called Energy 2020
A macroeconomic model call TIM (The Infometrica Macroeconomic
model)
 E3MC is used to estimate the Business As Usual Projections (with
existing measures and policies) and evaluate various emission
reduction strategies up to 2075 and estimate the associated costs
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Energy 2020 Model
 Integrated multi-region, multi-sector model for North
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America
It simulates the supply, the price, and the demands for
all fuel types
The model’s main outputs include:
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Changes in energy use
Energy prices
Investment costs and potential costs savings resulting from
policy changes
GHG and air pollutant emissions as a function of energy use
and economic activity (using emission coefficients for each
pollutant and industrial sector)
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TIM (Macroeconomic) Model
 Examines the consumption, investment, production, and
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trade decisions for the whole economy
It captures the interaction among industries and the
implications for changes in producer prices, relative final
prices and income
It also factors in government fiscal balances, monetary
flows, interest and exchange rates
It accounts for 133 industries at the provincial and
territorial levels
It includes an international component to account for
exports and imports, which covers approximately 100
commodities
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TIM (Macroeconomic) Model
 This model projects the direct impacts on the economy's
final demand, output and employment, price formation,
and sectoral income that result from various GHG and
air pollutants emission reduction policies
 Similarly to other macro economic models, E3MC
provides directional guidance with respect to the broad
economic consequences that are likely to arise from
policy changes
 TIM is liked to the energy model to capture the
interactions between the energy sector and the economy
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Interaction Between The Two Models
ENERGY 2020
SUPPLY
Electric Utility/IPPs
Gas Supply
Oil Supply
Coal Supply
International Supply
International Trade
DEMAND
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Outputs
•Gross output
by industry and
jurisdictions
•Personal
income
(i) changes to investments in energy using
equipment and structures by sector and industry;
(ii) changes to energy intensity (energy input per
unit of output) by sector, by industry and fuel
Inputs
THE INFORMETRICA
MACROECONOMIC (TIM) MODEL
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•Inflation
•Taxe rates
•Exchange
rates
Background On The Framework
 Energy2020 has been used for the past 20 years to analyze energy
and environment policies in the U.S. (state and federal level) and
Canada

It can provide facility level emissions for all power plants in Canada
 Informetrica TIM Model has been used for the past 30 years to
assess the economic impacts of Canadian and provincial
governments’ policy initiatives
 Historical emission inventories (1995 to 2006) are used to develop
emission coefficients in the framework (for energy and other
emission sources)
 The framework also uses inputs from other departments (finance,
Natural Resources, National Energy Board) and organizations
(National Round Table on Energy and the Economy, industry
associations)
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Review Of The Emission Projections
 Economic and emissions projections are estimated by
Environment Canada
 They are reviewed by sector experts in Environment

Canada
They are then reviewed by the provinces
 The comments obtained from the reviewers are
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discussed and adjustments are applied where necessary
The process is used to obtain agreement (consensus)
on the projections which are then published
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Current Uses of The Projections Framework
 A new regulatory program (named CARA) to improve air
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quality and reduce GHG is currently in development in
Canada
Emission reduction targets and intensities are being
developed for 16 industrial sectors, transportation
vehicles, and solvent uses
For the development of the reduction targets different
scenarios are proposed and analyzed
E3MC is being used to estimate:
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The costs to the industries
The impact on the economy
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Projected Emission Inventories
 The emission projections from the E3MC framework are used to
prepare future year emission inventories required for air quality
modeling (eg. 2015 and 2020)
 Facility specific emissions are developed for the each industry
sectors taking in consideration:
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The future capacity of existing facilities (proposed expansions and
possible closures)
Expected capacity of new facilities (based on permit application and
environmental assessments information, knowledge of sector experts,
information obtained from individual industry and industrial
associations)
Process technology changes, changes in control equipment, changes
in fuel consumption, etc.
Emission intensities of old and new or modernized facilities
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Cost and Benefit Analyses of Emission
Reduction Targets For Air Pollutants
2006 and historical
emission
Inventories
E3MC framework
Projected
Emissions
(by province and sector)
Cost Estimates
2015 BAU emission inventory
2015 emission inventory
with proposed reduction targets
Air Quality Model
Output - Components of
Smog and Acid Rain: O3,
PM2.5, deposition of
acidifying compounds,
visibility, critical loads
Ecosystem Effect
Models
Human Health
Impact Model
Benefit Estimates
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Next Steps For E3MC
 Develop new module to model the emissions by facility
for the oil sands industry
 Continue to improve the alignment of the sectors in the
emissions inventory with those in the projections
framework
 Automate and accelerate the process to generate
detailed emission inventories for 2015 to 2020, which
are required for air quality modeling
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