Transcript Dr. Christo Christov and Mr. Teodor Ivanov

UNFCCC WORKSHOP
ON PREPARATION OF NATIONAL COMMUNICATIONS
FROM ANNEX I PARTIES
Bulgaria GHG Emission Projections - Methodology and
Institutional Arrangements
Dr. Christo Christov,
Energoproekt, Sofia
e-mail: [email protected]
tel: ++359 2 68 80 34
Teodor Ivanov
Ministry of Environment and Water
[email protected]
++359 2 981 44 12
Bonn, Germany
28 February - 2 March 2001
1
Energoproekt - coordinator of Climate Change study,
research and development of National Communications,
Inventories, Projections and Policies&Measures
Company was established in 1948
Study and design of power projects
Energy and power system study and research,
 electric system expansion planning,
 mid and long-term energy planning,
 environmental impact of power projects,
 energy efficiency,
 policy analysis,
 nuclear safety,
 hydro, thermal and nuclear power plants, transmission lines,
substation, urban and rural networks design and supervision.
2
Bulgaria and UN Framework Convention
on Climate Change



Bulgaria signed the Framework Convention on Climate Change in
Rio. The country ratified the Convention in March 1995 thus
taking the commitment to keep its GHG emissions below those in
the base year.
Pursuant to article 4 (paragraph 6) of the UNFCCC, Bulgaria used
its right to choose as a base year a year different from the
commonly accepted 1990, and adopted 1988 as a base year under
the Convention.
COP 3 Kyoto - the reduction target for Bulgaria during the first
commitment period is 92 (i.e. 8% reduction). Such a reduction
requires timely development of mitigation measures and their
implementation at different levels - households, region, state.
3
Bulgaria as one of the countries with economies in transition undergoes
economic transformation, accompanied by the process of privatisation and
restructuring of the industry. The process of transformation brings industrial
production decline and related decrease of energy demand and CO2 emissions
levels.
.
Trend of GHG emissions – [CO equivalent emissions]
2
GHG
1988
1990
1991
CO2
103 856 84 136 66 043
CH4
28 009 29 602 28 420
N2O
25 225 23 964 21 217
HFCs
0
0
0
PFCs
0
0
0
SF6
0
0
0
Total
157 090 137 701 115 679
Trend - %
100
88
74
1988 = 100%
1992
1993
1994
CO2 equivalent (Gg)
59 183 61 859 59 178
26 188 23 550 17 178
18 339 16 675 16 230
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
103 710 102 084 92 586
66
65
59
1995
1996
1997
1998
62 332
18 641
17 110
0
0
0
98 083
62
60 710
17 370
16 642
0
0
0
94 722
60
58 742
14 775
16 295
0
0
0
89 811
57
55 150
13 743
14 777
577
69
0
84 316
54
4


Under the existing social and economic circumstances in Bulgaria, the
guiding rule of the Bulgarian climate change policy is joining the
international efforts in the field to the level consistent with the
national economy and the potential for attracting foreign
investments to be used for GHG mitigation.
Mitigation policy and measures should be as cost-effective and
economically beneficial as possible.

DOCUMENTS
First National Communication
February 1996.
Second National Communication April 1998.
National Action Plan
June 2000.

Third National Communication ???


November 2001.
5
First National Communication
Projections, Policies&Measures
Objective:
Developing and analyzing:
 Baseline emission scenario
 Emission mitigation scenario
 Mitigation policy and measures identification at macroeconomic, sectoral
and utility level
 Effect of the policies and measures at sectorial and utility level
Tools:



Macroeconomic econometric model of neokeynsianian monetary type on
macro and intersectoral level
Bottom-up energy demand model + expert judgements
ENPEP modules (ELECTRIC, BALANCE, IMPACT), IRP and DSM
Manager - EPRI
6
Macroeconomic Alternatives
Two scenarios:
 Baseline scenario - no major changes in the economic structure and
energy demand structure, moderate technology innovation process,
slow energy efficiency improvements (business-as-usual scenario)
 Mitigation scenario - significant restructuring of economy, energy
demand pattern change, including natural gas supply to households,
use of renewable sources, intensive DSM in households and
industry, energy conservation policy
Results:
 Projections on GDP and production volumes for sectors and
subsectors
 Socio-demographic projections (population, employment,
unemployment, number of households)
7
Energy Demand Forecast
Based on two macroeconomic alternatives (GDP growth and structure,
industrial production volumes, investment levels, import-export, etc.)
and
Bottom-up approach with expert judgements for the penetration of
new technologies.
Policies and Measures were developed at this stage.
Useful and final energy demand projections for energy and fuels electricity, heat, coal, natural gas, etc.for:
•
industry (metallurgy, chemistry, building materials and other subsectors);
•
transport ( by types: railways, automobiles, public, water, air and pipeline);
•
agriculture;
•
public sector (households and services);
•
energy sector (including oil extraction, oil processing and gas transportation, coal mining,
coke and briquettes production as subsectors).
8
Energy System Simulation
ELECTRIC and IRP Manager provide Power Sector least cost expansion plan
BALANCE provides projections on primary fuel quantities, fuel and energy flows
Emission Projection
IMPACT provides projections on energy sector GHG emissions :
- by sectors and total (“bottom-up” approach)
- total/reference approach (“top-down” approach for CO2 emissions)
Non-energy emissions were not projected in the 1st NC.
Implemented emission calculation methodology follows the IPCC Guidelines for
GHG inventory, including structure and emission factors.
Policies&Measures - general survey of strategies, legislation and sectors status.
Effect is assessed at sector level
9
Second National Communication



The same methodology and approach as in the First Communication
Additional objectives were set to the projections:
• to identify whether Bulgaria will be able to meet its obligations
under Kyoto
• to identify the most efficient policies and measures at
macroeconomic, sectoral, utility, enterprise and households level.
Single macroeconomic scenario was used, due to the understanding
that the introduced Currency Board would not allow for path of
economic development other than the planed one.

Non-energy emissions were projected based on the forecast for the
emission source categories.
Uncertainty of the macroeconomic forecast is the main source of the
emission projections uncertainty
10
Macroeconomic Alternatives - First and Second National
Communication - Macro-economic indicators
Indicator
Population
GDP
Unit
thousand
people
billion BGL
(prices ‘92)
Production index:
Industry
%
Construction
%
Agriculture and Forestry
%
Transport
%
Scenario
BS
EES
CBS
BS
EES
CBS
BS
EES
CBS
BS
EES
CBS
BS
EES
CBS
BS
EES
CBS
1995
8460
8460
8385
187.7
187.7
205.6
2000
8417
8417
8040
232.5
211.3
194.2
2005
8375
8375
8020
320.0
276.3
257.6
2010
8333
8333
8000
436.4
376.7
337
2015
8292
8292
7980
575.8
507.3
423.8
2020
8250
8250
7960
741.9
713.6
520.6
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
118
105
93
133
106
86
129
118
91
141
126
102
155
134
131
181
136
114
174
156
123
206
172
138
204
182
167
251
183
149
232
214
165
302
247
183
263
248
207
334
244
188
300
291
211
422
347
230
336
345
253
432
338
231
379
413
263
580
509
286
Note: BS - baseline scenario; EES - energy efficiency scenario; CBS - currency board scenario
11
Aggregated Emission Projections
Baseline scenario
160000
150000
1988 level
140000
130000
120000
Kyoto target
GHG emissions - kt
110000
Mitigtion scenario
100000
2008
90000
Year
80000
70000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
12
140000
Gg
CO2 Emissions inventory and projections
1st and 2nd NC
130000
120000
110000
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
2020
2018
Base 2
2016
2014
2012
2010
Mittig.1
2008
2006
2004
Base 1
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
Inventory
Mittig.2
13
CO2 Emission Inventory and Projection
90000
Gg
80000
70000
60000
Base 1
Mittig.1
Base 2
Mittig.2
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
50000
Inventory
14
Key issues
to be addressed before developing the III-rd National Communication
1. Political issues:
 is there a change in the governmental policy towards the
national commitments under the UNFCCC&KP?
 are there changes in the governmental and other institutions
involved in the field of climate change?
 are there new governmental and other institutions established
to meet the requirements of the UNFCCC&KP?
 are there personal changes of managing staff and experts
(decision-makers), dealing with the issue?
 what will be the official sources of information for the 3-rd NC
regarding the national policy?
 who will approve the 3-rd NC before sending it to the UNFCCC
Secretariat?
15
2. Legislative/regulatory issues:
 is there a change in the national legislation related to the
meeting of the commitments under the UNFCCC&KP ?
 is there a change in the legislative basis?
 are there new governmental documents adopted (programs,
plans, etc.) regarding the climate change problem?
 where from the above information could be gathered?
 is there a legal document, governmental decisions or other
official act needed with regard to the development of the 3-rd
NC?
16
3. Methodological issues:
 is there a change in the guidelines and methodology for
development of the NC?
 is it possible to use available sources of information used
before?
 what other information sources could be used?
 in what way the information will be checked and verified?
 are there unsolved problems regarding information
confidentiality?
 what are the main recommendations of the In-depth Review
Team on NC-2, to be taken into consideration when developing
the III-rd NC?
17
4. Technical issues:
 what methods will be used for correspondence with the sources of
information?
 is the capacity of the team selected to develop the 3-rd NC
enough to cope with the new requirements?
 is there a need for new experts and what new experts to be
included?
 is training of the team needed?
 is there sufficient hardware and software support for the
development of the 3rd NC?
5. Financial issues:
 what funding is necessary for the 3rd NC?
 are they available and who provides the funds?
 would be additional financing needed in the course of the
development of the 3rd NC and who can supply it?
18
Third National Communication


The methodology and approach are the same as in the First and
Second Communications
Additional objectives were set to the projections:
• to identify the status and effect of implementation of the NCCAP
P&M at governmental, sectoral, utility, enterprise and households
level
• to identify whether Bulgaria will be able to meet Kyoto obligations
under current assumptions and projections
• to identify whether enough capacity is available to meet the
requirements of the UNFCCC guidelines
• to identify necessity of JI projects to meet the target and potential
for ET
• to identify P&M (under implementation or planned for
implementation) that would provoke GHG emission increase
19
Institutional setting

The Ministry of Environment and Water continues to be responsible for the
climate change related activities. The NCs and GHG inventories used to be
approved by the Highest Expert Council to the Ministry

A Climate Change Interministerial Commission at the level of deputy
ministers was established by the Government after the approval of the
NCCAP (no activities undertaken yet). It has the authority to approve the
3rd NC

Energoproekt continues to be a coordinator of the Climate Change study,
research and development of National Communications, Inventories,
Projections and Policies&Measures. An interdisciplinary team of 60 to 80
experts was involved in climate change related activities over the period
1994-1998
20
Organizations involved in the preparation of the 1st and 2nd NCs

Ministries and State
Committees:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Environment and Water
Energy and Energy Resources
Energy Efficiency
Industry
Finance
Agriculture and Forestry
Transportation
Regional Development
Justice
Education and Science

Research organizations:
• Energoproekt
• Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
Institutes:
– Hydrology and Meteorology
– Forest Research
– Nuclear Research and Nuclear
Energy
– Economics
• Academy of Agriculture


NGO s
Private Experts

The 1st and 2nd NCs and NCCAP were developed in the frame of of the
USCSP. Bulgaria has received methodological and financial support.

USCSP support for Bulgaria was closed in March 1999.
21
Financing of the preparation of the Third National
Communication


Energoproekt has received financial support to prepare the 1st and 2nd
NCs and the NCCAP from the US DoE in the frame of the USCSP.
Starting from December 1999 Energoproekt is receiving financial support
for the climate change activities from the National Environmental Fund at
contractual basis. The financing that Energoproekt will get from the fund
is as follows:
• Processing of 1999 Inventory - 610 US $
• Preparation of the Third National Communication - 3 100 US $
Practically these activities are performed in Energoproekt at a voluntary basis.
No other research institutes and/or private experts are involved due to the
lack of financing
22
Conclusions
The chapters on the P&M and Projections
form the core of the NCs.
These chapters reflect in the best way the concern with the
climate change related activities in the countries,
the measures undertaken and the professional
level of the experts involved in the field.
23
Conclusions





Uncertainty of the macroeconomic forecast is the major source of
uncertainty of emission projections.
A single macroeconomic scenario is acceptable for the
short and mid-term projections.
The GHG inventory approach to the emission calculations in the projections is
the best way to achieve comparability across inventory results and
projected emissions.
P&M implementation should be reflected in the projections as
a change in activity data and emission factors.
Financing is the critical issue for a high quality and timely development
of the III-rd NC of Bulgaria.
24