Transcript WHY ? Do we need better emission estimations and projections?

EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
WHY ?
Do we need better emission
estimations and projections?
Workshop on GHG Emissions from
Agriculture - Copenhagen, February
2003
European Commission
Lars Müller DG ENV.E.1
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
EU Climate Change
policy frame work
Climate change high priority
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
 6th EAP
 SDS (Gothenburg Coucil)
EU committed to Kyoto Protocol
 Ratification March 2002
 Entry into force ?? in 2003 ?? (more than 100
countries have ratified / 43.9%)
Compliance means comply with:
 Reduction committment
 REPORTING obligations
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
EU is fulfilling its commitments jointly
(Kyoto Protocol Art.4)
EC is Party to KP (as are MS)
Its the Community who has to meet the target
-8% (international law)
MS have national burden sharing targets
(legally binding by ratification decision
(2002/358/EC))
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
The bubble
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Vital question
ARE WE ON TRACK ?
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Monitoring Mechanism
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Obligations of Member States:
 publish and implement a national programme
(And to forward it to the commission within 3 months of its
adoption or update)
 report annually their inventories to the
commission
(by 31 Dec year N : provisional data for year N-1 and final
data year N-2),
 report on their most recent projections
(for 2008-2012)
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
 Community is required to submit to UNFCCC :
– annually, a “national inventory”
– periodically, a “national communication” including
material relevant for calculations of global emission
trends and specific estimates of the effects of policies and
measures
 Commission reports to Council and Parliament
 Annual assessment of actual progress and projected
progress
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Monitoring Mechanism (cont.)
EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Ex-post evaluation:
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CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Index
110
100.0
100
99.5
96.5
90
92.0
80
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Greenhouse gas emissions
Target path 2010
GHG target 2010
CO2 emissions
CO2 target 2000
2010
2012
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Third Phase in Monitoring
Mechanism
 1993 first Council Decision on GHG Monitoring
 Council Decision (1999)296/EC is current basis
 NEW proposal 2003: COM (2003) 51 final
 Implementing Marrakech Accords
 Inventory system (KP 5.1)
 Reflecting experiences (problem area: Projections)
 Including FLEX-Mex
 Further details in implementing provisions
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Sectoral share
Transport
21%
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Other (Energy)
16%
Agriculture
10%
Industry (Processes)
6%
Waste
3%
Other
0.3%
Energy Industries
Fugitive Emissions
Industry (Energy)
Industry (Processes)
Other (Energy)
Transport
Agriculture
Waste
Other
Industry (Energy)
15%
Fugitive Emissions
2%
Energy Industries
27%
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Workshop
on energy related projections Feb. 2002
• Some examples of recommendations:
– sensitivity analysis to increase robustness of projections
– better specification of scenarios
– share Good Practice in evaluation of the effects of good
practice
– report minimum information on assumptions or model
– indicate the strengths and weaknesses of the models used
.....
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Some provocative questions:
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Estimating of agricultural emissions is well
established in all the 15 MS , BUT
estimates are more uncertain than other keysources:
Can‘t we provide better quantification of the
uncertainties as we should under KP rules ?
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Different methodological choices by MS
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 In all cases inevitable?
 always deliberately taken on the basis of objective
differences ?
 Or sometimes just arbitrary ?
 Can we develop a common approach to methan
conversion rates
and/or emission factors?
 Can we come closer to enhanced livestock
characterisation ?
 To what extent do we need to harmonise choices of
methodologies in the EU?
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Some more questions:
 How can we increase the comparability of projections?
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
 CAP has major influence: how is this reflected in national
projections ?
 Can we help that MS at least comply with all FCCC /KP and
IPCC guidelines ?
 Is there scope for enhanced networking and exchange of
Good Practice amongst ourselves?
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Possible Results:
 Better understanding what is different and why .
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
 Better understanding where we could perhaps have even
more in common.
 Less inconsistency ??
 Recommendations for further work on
EU level in
the MM (?) and on national level ?
 Recommendations for new common standards ? ? ? ?
 Recommendations for the future MM implementing
provisions ?
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EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Thank you
CLIMATE CHANGE UNIT
Have a nice and revealing workshop
Further info on the new proposal
www.europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/
monitoring_mechanisms.htm
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