Transcript Emission Projections of 2F

Workshop on the
Criteria to establish projections scenarios
Sectoral projection guidance:
industrial processes
Mario Contaldi, TASK-GHG
Emanuele Peschi, TASK-GHG
Ankara , 15-17 March 2016
Outline
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Source description
Economic assumptions:
Activity data projections
Technological assumptions
Emission factor projections
GHG projection indicators
Source specific QA/QC
Discussion
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Source description
• Industrial processes are resulting from
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2.A Mineral Industry
2.B. Chemical Industry
2.C Metal Production
2.D Other Production
2.E Production of halocarbons and SF6
2.F Consumption of halocarbons and SF6
• Each of these source categories has several
subcategories:
– It has to be decided which of them has to be considered in
detail for projections
– Detailed guidance is given and should be followed for the most
important subsectors (actual or potential key source categories)
– Less important ones should be projected as an aggregation
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General Points for the
Calculation of Emission Projections
• In general for subsectors in 2.A – 2.D (Mineral and
Chemical Industry and Metal production) projection
calculations are based on detailed projection of Activity
data and Emission factors
– In some subsectors Activity data and Emission factors are
not available due to confidential reasons. In these cases
emission projections have to be based on the
development of the absolute emissions.
• For the projection of F-Gases (2.E-2.F) emission
projections have to include the activity and emission
developments of previous years, because emissions are
not only resulting from manufacturing but also from
the bank and from disposal.
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General Points for the
Calculation of Emission Projections
• For the most important subsectors each gas which has
been reported in most recent GHG inventories should
be projected separately.
• Proposed calculations for F-gasses are based on results
and methodologies presented in the “Preparatory
study for a review of Regulation (EC) No. 842/2006 on
certain fluorinated greenhouse gases”, prepared for the
EU Commission in the context of Service Contract No
070307/2009/548866/SER/C4, September 2011
• Historical Activity data are based on most recent GHG
inventories (if they are not available because of
confidential reasons, emissions are taken as a whole
term from GHG inventories).
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Activity data projections 2A-2D
• Tier 1: Last available AD from GHG inventory is held
constant
• Tier 2: AD changes along the timeline, using the most
reasonable trend of available parameters
– The parameter which should be used is depending on the
subsector and national circumstances (importance in
relation to all industrial sectors, export/import structure),
e.g. economic development (GDP or GVA, preferably for
the sector itself), population development, general
consumption figures.
• Tier 3: National projections of production on emission
source level in total production. E.g. including
information on shutdown/ start-up of individual
installations, information from trade associations or
national projections on the development of
production.
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Emission Factor projections 2A-2D
• Historical Emission factors are based on most
recent GHG inventories
• Tier 1: Last available EF from GHG inventory is
held constant
• Tier 2: EF should change along the timeline of
projection if :
– changes in process input/output are anticipated
(especially 2A)
– changes in process performances are anticipated
(especially 2B+2C)
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Parameters for the Projection of 2A-2D
• GVA (total and sectoral) is the favorite trend parameter
(against GDP)
– Subsector level only partly available
• Annual growth of GDP in industrial sectors can be used
(about half of all EU MS).
• Production index in t/a from surveys, associations and
national statistics is also very often available and used
for projections.
• Penetration rates for new technologies and plant
specific information (especially within ETS) is
recommended
• EF are in general available and used for projections,
starting from CRF data or new values. There may be
changes for EF for cement and lime production.
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Emission Projections of 2E
(Production of Halocarbons and SF6)
• 2E1 and 2E2 are identified as key source categories but
are often lacking for data because of confidential
reasons.
• The production of F-Gases could be related to
developments in 2F but there is no general direct linking
between the use of F-Gases and the production on MSlevel.
• Future exports and imports between MS and from
outside EU are more relevant than national consumption
or new appliances or refill projected in 2F.
• Emissions should be held constant if no detailed
information on installation level is available, that
production will be reduced.
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Emission Projections of 2F - I
• In sector 2F the following subsectors are identified to be
European key source categories
– 2F1 (Refrigeration and Air Conditioning)
– 2F3 (Fire Extinguishers)
– and 2F4 (Aerosols/MDI)
• For these categories detailed guidelines will be available to
calculate manufacturing, lifetime and disposal emissions.
• Source category 2F1 has to be differentiated into the
following sub-categories for the inclusion of measures
related to F-Gas emissions:
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Commercial Refrigeration
Industrial Refrigeration
Stationary Air Conditioning
Mobile Air Conditioning
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Emission Projection of 2.F - II
• The following general 3-tiered methodology is planned:
• Tier 1: Results from recent F-Gas report if detailed CRF
data is not available
– Some CRF-data has been contested or is not as
differentiated as it will be presented by the guidelines.
• Tier 2: Adjusting results of F-Gas report to national
information
– Basing on detailed and reliable CRF data, development
rates of emissions are taken from F-Gas report.
• Tier 3: Detailed methodologies
– With default parameters used in the report, giving place
for more or less information on national circumstances.
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Parameters for the Projection of 2F1
• Proposed parameters for Tier 3 methodologies for
commercial and industrial refrigeration are not often
available but recommended .
– Calculation of commercial refr. shall be based on sales area,
specific amount of refrigerants and shares of refrigerants.
– Calculation of industrial refr. shall be based on cooling capacities
or the production of goods which need cooling (including
average charges and shares of refrigerants). It was mentioned
that calculation may also be based on the stock of industrial
refrigeration (which is not generally known)
• For stationary and mobile AC, Tier 3 methodologies should
be based on stocks, average charges and shares of F-Gases.
• The general idea is to present Tier 3 methodologies with a
large amount of default parameters which can be adjusted
to national circumstances.
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Linking with other CRF-Categories
• Combustion in manufacturing industries (1.A.2)
should be based on the same Activity data as for
industrial processes.
• For some source-categories direct linking is
necessary to results in source category 1.A.1 and
1.A.2:
– Emissions from flue gas desulphurisation (2A3) have
to be linked to the projection of coal consumption as
activity data.
– Emissions from catalytic burning and conversion loss
of refineries (2B5) have to be linked to projections of
oil consumption as activity data.
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Source specific QA/QC
• First step is general QA/QC, especially TCCCA (Transparency,
Completeness, Consistency, Comparability and Accuracy
Checks)
• Emissions should show a reasonable development:
– Changes along the timeline should be steady on subsector level.
– High increases or decreases have to be explained.
– Consistency with industrial energy consumption has to be
checked if not the same AD have been used.
• Check that projections fit with official economic and policy
expectations (e.g. emission reduction targets).
• All these checks have to be conducted first by personnel
doing the calculations and afterwards again for the whole
picture on complete GHG projections from personnel not
directly involved in the projection compilation.
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Discussion points
• What tier level it is best fit for Turkey for
– Industrial processes
– F-gasses
• Generally applied CRF-methodologies should be followed
(e.g. consideration of the dual role of carbon as a reductant
and a fuel in the production process of pig iron (2C1), which
differs between MS)
• CRF Sector 3 is marginal related to absolute GHG emissions.
The proposal is to held it constant along the timeline
without detailed projection.
• Very general: How to deal with projections which include
process emissions into total industry emissions? Should
there be an additional guidance for this methodology?
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