Transcript Projections of GHG emissions from agriculture Trevor

Projections of greenhouse gas
emissions from agriculture:
an Irish example
Trevor Donnellan
FAPRI-Ireland Partnership
Rural Economy Research Centre,
Teagasc HQ, Dublin 4.
Outline

Introduction

FAPRI-Ireland explained

Agriculture Commodity Models: Methodology

Baseline & Scenarios Agriculture Projections

Derivation of GHG projections

Some sample results for Ireland of GHG emissions
from agriculture
FAPRI-Ireland Partnership

Consortium founded in 1997

Teagasc (Irish Agriculture and Food Development Authority)

Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) (Missouri, USA)

National Universities of Ireland

Partner project in Northern Ireland
FAPRI-Ireland Partnership:
Agri-food projections for Irish Agriculture

Economic models of agricultural sectors

Commodity sub-models combined to form model of
Irish agricultural sector

Dynamic partial equilibrium econometric model

Close to 20 commodities

Baseline and Scenario projections of agricultural
activity to a 10 year horizon
FAPRI-Ireland Partnership
Agri-food projections for Irish Agriculture

Agricultural activity projections can be used to
project agriculture’s GHG contribution
–
Under Baseline of no further policy change
–
Under Scenario of some policy change, e.g. the EC
Luxembourg Agreement, WTO reform
Methodology
Model of
agricultural
economy
Projections
of
agricultural
activities
Implications
for GHG
emissions
Methodology
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Historical data collected
Equations specified (Y =  + 1X1 + 2X2)
Equations estimated
Models assembled in spreadsheets
System solved
Projections generated
National expert review
Commodity model inter linkages
Sheep Output Values
Beef Output Values
Milk Output Values
Pig Output Values
Dairy
Dairy Cow
Numbers
Cereals
Cattle Feed Price
Cattle Numbers
Poultry Prices
Poultry Numbers
Inputs
Pig Meal Price
Sheep
Cattle Feed
Price
Poultry Output Values
Cereal Prices, Production, Value &
Hectares
Dairy Cow
Numbers
Dairy Cow
Numbers
Beef
Dairy Meal
Price
Pigs
Poultry Meal
Prices
Poultry
Dairy model
Milk Fed
to Livestock
On Farm
Human Use
Liquid Consumption
Liquid Milk
Butter
Liquid
Milk Price
Domestic Sales
SMP
Manufacturing
Milk
Milk Delivered
Intervention
Casein
Cream
Manufacturing
Milk Price
Cheese
Exports
Domestic Sales
Milk Output
WMP
Milk Output per Cow
Total Milk
Production
Choc. Crumb
Misc . Prods.
No. Dairy Cows
How we do the Policy Analysis?
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Develop a Baseline
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Current Policies Remain In Place
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International Agreements Hold
–
No New Policies
Contrast it with an alternative Scenario
–

Using different policy assumptions
Difference between the two is the policy’s effect
Activity data projections
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
Macroeconomic conditions
–
Exchange rates, economic growth, inflation
–
Obtained from Macro policy models
Policy conditions
–

Market conditions
–

EU policy reform or proposals from other sources
Based on published data from official and commercial sources
Events in other agriculture sectors
–
The impact which events in one ag sector can have on another
is included
Projections

10 year horizon

Baseline

–
Current policy remains in place
–
Current international agreements in place
–
No new policy
Scenario
–
Alternative policy
–
Method of differences
Issues we have looked at

Previous Analyses
–
Analysis of the Implications of Quota removal
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Commission Agenda 2000 Proposals (December 1998)
–
the Final Berlin Agenda 2000 Agreement (May 1999)
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the London Club Agenda 2000 Dairy Alternative (Sept 1999)
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the impact of Exchange Movements on Farm Income (March 2000)
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the impact of a reduction or elimination of Export Subsidies (April 2001)
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the impact of reform of the EU extensification regime (April 2002)
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CAP reform Mid Term Review proposals (May 2003)
–
Luxembourg Agreement CAP reform (Oct 2003)
MTR/WTO Scenario Assumptions
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Baseline of May 2003

MTR implemented as per June 2003
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
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Dairy reform
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With 3 decoupling options analysed
WTO reform as per EU modalities (Jan 2003)
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36% reduction in tariffs
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45% reduction in export subsidy outlays
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55% reduction in AMS
OTMS gradually phased out (as in Baseline)
–
phased return of OTMS beef (2004 to 2006)
Example - Beef Results: Ireland
Irish Suckler Cows

% Change
0
Decoupling changes returns
to suckler cow farming
-4
–
Suckler cow herd declines
-8
–
Reduces size of beef herd
–
Leads to lower emissions
levels
-12
-16
-20
2004
2006
2008
MAX
2010
2012
Sample Output: % change in animal no.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Dairy cows
0.00%
0.10%
0.07%
0.08%
0.04%
0.08%
0.09%
0.11%
0.14%
0.14%
0.14%
Suckler cows
0.00%
0.02%
-9.68%
-12.86%
-14.74%
-15.53%
-16.22%
-16.82%
-17.35%
-17.82%
-18.23%
Other cattle
0.00%
-0.02%
-4.04%
-5.79%
-6.81%
-7.26%
-7.61%
-7.91%
-8.18%
-8.41%
-8.63%
0.00%
0.06%
-4.88%
-6.50%
-7.49%
-7.89%
-8.27%
-8.60%
-8.89%
-9.16%
-9.42%
Sows
0.00%
-0.05%
-0.41%
0.28%
0.46%
0.16%
0.07%
0.26%
0.33%
0.28%
0.26%
Other pigs
0.00%
0.00%
0.23%
0.07%
-0.51%
-0.61%
-0.21%
0.02%
0.03%
0.14%
0.40%
0.00%
0.00%
-0.04%
-0.23%
0.01%
0.31%
0.27%
0.15%
0.21%
0.30%
0.31%
Ewes
0.00%
-0.02%
-3.13%
-2.67%
-1.34%
-3.19%
-4.66%
-5.05%
-5.45%
-6.05%
-6.45%
Other sheep
0.00%
0.00%
0.48%
-0.53%
-0.77%
-0.21%
-0.59%
-1.14%
-1.44%
-1.75%
-2.17%
0.00%
-0.02%
-3.08%
-2.58%
-1.20%
-3.03%
-4.51%
-4.90%
-5.32%
-5.92%
-6.33%
Cattle
Calf crop
Pigs
Pig crop
Sheep
Lamb crop
Ireland: results to date
Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture


2002
–
Baseline projections 2002
–
Extensification scenario
–
Decoupling scenario
2003
–
Baseline projections 2003
–
CAP Reform Mid Term review scenario
–
CAP Reform Luxembourg Agreement/WTO scenarios
October 2003 Analysis
GHG Emissions from Agriculture
20
MT CO2 Equiv.
18
16
14
2.5 > 2.4
CO2 eqiuv
12
10
1990
1993
1996
1999
Baseline 2003
2002
2005
2008
Luxembourg Agreement
2011
Conclusions



Agricultural policy Models
–
can project GHG emission levels
–
under Baseline and policy change scenarios
Activity projections
–
allow conversion to GHG emissions projections
–
based on best scientific information available
Allow evaluation of the impact of agricultural
policy changes on GHG emissions into the future
Thank You
Full report is available on
our website at:
www.tnet.teagasc.ie/fapri