Transcript How shall Beef and Dairy Deal with the Precautionary Principle

How shall Beef and Dairy Deal with the
Precautionary Principle regarding
Environmental Quality?
NIAA, Omaha, NE, April 1, 2014
Frank Mitloehner, PhD
Professor & Air Quality CE Specialist
Dept Animal Science
University of California, Davis
GHG & GWP
Global Warming Potential
Main GHG
 Carbon Dioxide, CO2
 Methane, CH4
 Nitrous Oxide, N2O
CO2 – Carbon Dioxide
CH4 – Methane
(GWP) of
1
25
298
N2O – Nitrous Oxide
Carbon Dioxide and Carbon Flux
U.S. – the big GHG picture
Source: EPA (2009)
“Livestock’s Long Shadow” (FAO, 2006)
• “The Livestock sector is a major player,
responsible for 18% of GHG emissions
measured in CO2e. This is a higher share
than transport”
“I must say honestly that he
has a point - we factored in
everything for meat emissions,
and we didn't do the same thing
with transport, we just used the
figure from the IPCC.“
Dr. Pierre Gerber,
LLS contributing author
500
Consumption is growing rapidly in
developing countries
400
Eggs
200
300
Meat
100
Milk
1960
1970
1980
Roots and tubers
Meat
Eggs
1990
2000
2010
Cereals
Milk
Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100)
16
Per capita meat consumpion (kg/year)
... driven by incomes ...
140
USA
120
100
Germany
Brazil
80
Lithuania
China
60
Norway
Japan
40
Malaysia
20
Ghana
0
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
Per capita GDP (US$ PPP)
17
Per capita GDP and meat consumption by country, 2005.
Global livestock distribution
FAO (2006)
Distribution of cropland
FAO (2006)
Mt CO2-eq
GHG by Regions
Time (years)
Production efficiency and pollution is
inversely related
12.00
kg CO2-eq. per kg FPCM
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
7,000
8,000
9,000
More Milk Produced per Cow –
Less Methane & Waste
500 g
California Cow
Methane
Production
2000 g
Mexican Cow
4,000 lbs/yr/cow
20,000
lbs/yr/cow
FAO (2010)
Emission Intensities
(direct emissions from livestock)
GTAP 2001 data base
Mitigation: interventions to improve
productivity
Gill et al. (2010)
US Dairy trends
• Today, there are 9 million dairy cows in
the US, 16 million fewer than existed in
1950.
• Even though cow number have
decreased dramatically (1950 versus
2013), milk production nationally has
increased 60 percent.
• The carbon footprint of a glass of milk is
2/3 smaller today than it was 70 years
ago.
China Swine Example
• China’s five year plan focuses on making
farms larger and more efficient
• Half of the world’s pigs live in China
• 50 million sows w/ 20 piglets born alive
• Equals annual production of 1 Billion pigs
• Pre-weaning mortality causes 400 Million
pigs to never make it to the market
• One more pig per sow would mean
1 Million tons of feed saved
Sustainable Intensification
is key!
• Production intensity enhances
biological efficiency
• Production intensity and
emission intensity are inversely
related
Partnership on Livestock
Environmental Assessment &
Performance (LEAP)
• Globally harmonized methodology for
environmental footprints
• LEAP = national governments,
livestock industry, non-governmental
and civil society organizations, leading
researchers
Frank Mitloehner, PhD
Air Quality CE Specialist
Animal Science Department
University of California, Davis
(530) 752-3936
[email protected]