Transcript Please amend title - Climate North East

UK Climate Projections 2009
Regional Data – North East
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UK Climate projections 09 help us understand possible
impacts in the UK and the need to reduce our emissions
 These projections of our future climate have been developed
by Met Office paid for by Defra (also on behalf of Scotland,
Wales and NI)
 They show us the reality of climate change and help us
understand both the importance of the need to reduce our
emissions and adapt to inevitable changes.
 A great deal of information is available including pre-prepared
maps and graphs, which are available online to anyone
 A report ‘Adapting to Climate change: UK Climate Projections’
setting out what the Government is doing on adaptation will be
available, plus further reports on the science underpinning the
projections by UKCIP
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How to access the projections ?
• Further information can be found on the
Defra website at:
www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation
• For detailed access to the UKCP User
Interface
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk
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For summer average temperature, we see significant
increases over the decades to the 2080
2020
+1.5ºC
Increased Tourism
Increased Heat stress
2040
+2.2ºC
Infrastructure risks
Risks to biodiversity
Heat related deaths
2080
+3.7ºC
Risk to Food Security
NE England
central estimate
Medium emissions
The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than
5.8ºC
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For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases
2020
-5%
2040
-10%
2080
-17%
Reduced stream
flow and water
quality
Increased drought
Subsidence
Decreased crop
yields
Serious water stress
NE England
central estimate
Medium emissions
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -35% and very unlikely to be higher
than +1%
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For rainfall we see significant winter increases
2020
+4%
Increased winter
flooding
Increased subsidence
2040
+9%
2080
+14%
NE England
central estimate
Medium Emissions
Risks to urban
drainage
Severe Transport
disruption
Risks of national
Infrastructure
For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +2% and very unlikely to be
higher than +32%
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Relative sea level rise
(medium emissions, 50th percentile)
2040
Alnmouth:
Saltburn:
14cm
16cm
2080
Alnmouth:
Saltburn:
30cm
34cm
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What are the key impacts in the North
East region?
• In the longer term the impacts of climate change in the North
East could include:
• Heatwaves - affecting schools, homes and hospitals;
• Winter flooding, flash floods and storm damage;
• Increasing pests and diseases;
• Breakdowns of transport links due to extreme heat or storms.
• Families, communities and businesses could be affected,
• Emergency services are likely to come under increasing
pressure
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What actions are taking place in the
North East to adapt to climate change?
• A wide range of organisations signed up to the North East Declaration
on Climate Change in 2007.
• The Regional Spatial Strategy and Regional Economic Strategy contain
a range of policies to tackle climate change and encourage renewable
energy
• The North East Climate Change Partnership has produced an award
winning “Climate Change Adaptation Study”, which has shown the kinds
of change that are likely up to the 2050s for each part of the region, and
suggests the actions needed to help us prepare to cope with these.
• Local authorities and others are developing plans to help individuals,
businesses and communities to adapt to the new climate
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Local Authority Action
• All the Local Authorities in the region have signed up to the North East
Declaration on Climate Change.
• The region was also the first in Europe to have all its Local Authorities
sign up in 2009 to the “European Covenant of Mayors”. These
agreements commit local authorities to work to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and help businesses and communities adapt to climate
change.
• Six of the 12 local authorities have signed up to National Indicator 186
which aims to reduce gas emissions across the whole local authority
area, one to NI 185 which tracks emissions from the local authority’s own
activities, and eight to NI 188 which focuses on adaptation to climate
change .
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Project example: The North East Climate Change
Schools Project
The North East Climate Change
Schools Project has been working with
80 lead schools in the region to teach
pupils about climate change. The project
is the first of its kind in the country.
The project has just launched a Climate
Adaptation Challenge. The 12 winning
schools will receive up to £3000 each to
help pupils take the message about
climate change back to their homes and
communities.
A book written by young people in the
region, with a forward by Bill Bryson, is
just one of the successes of the project
so far.
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Project Example: Cheviot Futures
• Cheviot Futures is a new
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approach to land management in
rural Northumberland. It aims to
show how climate change is
affecting the area and rural
businesses, particularly farming,
through an education and tourist
package for two sites.
Action so far has included work to
reduce flood risk, and burning plans
to control wildfire.