Transcript Mahendra Shah - Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

Food Challenges in the 21st Century
From the Plough to the Plate
Production
Sustainable Agriculture
Environmental Protection
Biodiversity and Agro-biodiversity
Agricultural research and Technology
Climate Change and Variability
Domestic and International Access, Availability &Trade
Consumption : Population, Diet, Income
Food Security and Mal-nutrition
Food Security and Obesity
Mahendra Shah
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
GECAFS Food Systems Workshop
London, 21-22 October 2004
Human Rights
Food
Water
Education
Health Care
Social Security
Clean/Safe Environment
Freedom form Harassment
Freedom from Discrimination
Opportunities for Participation
International Commitments in a World of Disparities
Hunger in a World of Plenty
1000
Latin America &
Carribean
World Food Summits
1974,1996, 2002
MDGs 2000
million people
800
South Asia
600
East Asia
400
Near East & North Africa
200
Sub-Saharan Africa
0
1969-71 1979-81 1990-92 1997-99
The Risks of Too Much Food
Millennium Development Goals : Targets to 2015
(long history of international political goals)
POVERTY
1948( Universal Declaration-Human Rights); World Summits: 1972 Stockholm; 1990 Children;
1995 Social Development; 1996 Food; 2000 G8 Okinawa; Millennium Summit 2000
HUNGER
World Food Summits 1974,1996, 2002; Millennium Summit 2000
Education and Gender Equity
1974 UNESCO Convention; 1990 World Conference on education; 1994 UN IPCD; 1995 Social
Development Summit; 1995 Beijing; 2000 World education Forum; Millennium Summit 2000
Health
1974 Bucharest; 1984 Mexico; 1992 Rio; 1994 Cairo; 1995 Copenhagen; 2000 Millennium Summit
Environmental and Development
1972 Stockholm; 1992 Rio; WSSD 2002
Food Agriculture & Millennium Development Goals : 2015
50% Reduction in POVERTY (1a)
Agriculture > 70% of poor in rural areas; Livelihoods/ employment on farm/ rural off farm
50% Reduction in HUNGER (1b)
Agriculture > Food +90% of agriculture; Rural and urban hunger- access/affordability/safety
Universal Primary Education (2); Eliminate Gender Disparity (3)
Agriculture > Firewood collection and cooking; Focus on primary education
67% Reduction in child mortality (4) 75% Reduction in maternal mortality (5)
Halt and reverse spread/incidence of HIV/AIDS/Malaria/Diseases (6)
Agriculture > Rural and Urban Investments in Health Care
Ensure Environmental sustainability (7)
Agriculture > Largest user/ highest impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services; Biodiversity and
Agro-biodiversity; Global Environmental Change poses greatest threat; Water scarcity; Fragile
ecosystems – hill sides, semi-arid areas, watersheds, forests etc
Develop a global partnership for development (8)
Agriculture > ODA/ investments - agriculture research/extension/development;WTO Reforms
The Food Agricultural Challenge : Differentially Vulnerable Populations and Ecosystems
Sustainability of Natural Resources; Agricultural Technology Relevance/Risks/Benefits/IPR
Infrastructure and Marketing; Education and training; Nutrition and Diets
Human Population
2000
Regional Diversity and Demography, 1700 – 1990
Demographic Transition 2000-2050
Population 2000, 2050 regional distribution
Expanding Cropland 1700-1990
Fraction of grid cell in croplands
Intensive Mono Cropping
Intensive Meat and Fish Production
Agricultural : Vulnerability & Sustainability Sciences
Political Vulnerability
Disenfranchisement
Societal Vulnerability
Poverty, Hunger, Health, Population, Knowledge
Environmental Vulnerability
Resources, Degradation, Pollution, Climate Variability and Change
Economic Vulnerability
Farm and off-Farm Investments, Agricultural Research and Extension,
Prices, Credit, Infrastructure, Livelihoods
Technological Vulnerability
Research and Extension Capacity, Agro-biodiversity, IPRs
Internal and External Factors
What can science and research contribute
to foster sustainable development?
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1.
2.
How can the dynamic interactions between nature and
society, including lags and inertia, be better
incorporated in emerging models that integrate the
Earth system, human development, and sustainability?
 INTEGRATED SYSTEMS VIEW
What determines the vulnerability or resilience of the
nature-society system for particular places,
ecosystems, and livelihoods?
 UNDERSTAND ROBUSTNESS / HETEROGENEITY
Can scientifically meaningful “limits” or “boundaries”
be defined that would provide effective warning of
conditions beyond which the nature-society systems
incur a significantly increased risk of degradation?
 UNDERSTAND NONLINEARITIES / INTERACTIONS
What can science and research contribute
to foster sustainable development?
4. What systems of incentive structures – including
5.
6.
markets, rules, norms and scientific information – can
most effectively improve social capacity to guide
human interventions toward more sustainable
trajectories?
 ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES
How are long-term trends in environment and
development, including consumption and population,
reshaping nature-society interactions?
 INTEGRATED SCENARIOS
How can today’s operational systems for monitoring
and reporting on environmental and social conditions
be integrated or extended to provide more useful
guidance to navigate a transition toward
sustainability?
 INFORMATION INTEGRATION
Information Relevance and Utility
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Earth-based Information
Ground Assessment, Household Surveys, Market Information
Science and research, Traditional Knowledge…
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Space-based Information
IGOS : Integrated Global Observing Strategy
GISD : Global Information for Sustainable Development
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Harmonizing Earth-based and Space-based Information
Integrated analytical tools : Scientific understanding and policy analysis
National Policy making and implementation
International negotiations and agreements
…………………………………….
Developing Country Capacity Building
Achieving Sustainable Development : Reaching the Farmers and Consumers
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IIASA
www.iiasa.ac.at
Global Food and Agricultural System
Global Environmental Change
Global Economy
Integrated Ecological-Economic :
Science for Policy Actions
Agro-ecological Zones Methodology
Agro-ecological Zones Methodology
Geographical Data Layers
1. Monthly climatology 1960 – 1996; CRU at University of
East Anglia; at 0.5 deg. latitude/longitude
Agro-ecological Zones Methodology
Geographical Data Layers
3. FAO/Unesco digital Soil Map of the World; UN Food and
Agriculture Organization; at 5 arc-min. latitude/longitude
Agro-ecological Zones Methodology
Geographical Data Layers
5. Global gridded population distribution data of 1995;
CIESIN; at 2.5 arc-min. latitude/longitude resolution.
Global Agro-ecological Zones
Environmental resources database
including climate, soil, terrain, and land cover
comprising 2.2 million grid cells,
assessing the agricultural potential
of food and fiber crops, pastures, trees etc
at three levels of farming technology.
BLS Model System
18 National Models, 2 Regional Models, 14 other Regional Models
Commodities : wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine and ovine meat,dairy
products, other animal products, other food, non-food agriculture,non-agriculture.
Linkage : trade, world market prices and financial flows
National and Regional Models
Argentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya,
Mexico, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, China, India, USA
European Union, Eastern Europe and former USSR
AFRICA (Oil exporters, medium and low income : exporters and importers)
LATIN AMERICA (high-income : exporters and importers, medium income)
SOUTHEAST ASIA (high-medium income exporters and importers)
SOUTH ASIA (low income)
SOUTHWEST ASIA (oil exporters, medium-low income)
Rest of the world
The International Linkage in the World Food System Model
COUNTRY A
EXCHANGE
EQUILIBRIUM
PRODUCTION
Non-agriculture
production
Prices, consumption, stocks, net
exports to satisfy:
Agriculture
production
Production inputs:
• Budget constraint
• Market clearance
• Trade balance
• Trade quota
• Land
• Labour
• Capital
• Fertilizer
• Others
GOVERNMENT POLICIES
Target price, tariffs, taxes, quota, etc.
International commodity prices PW
Net trade EA
COUNTRY B
PW
WORLD MARKETS
International prices
to satisfy:
• commodity balances
• financial transfer balance
EC
PW
COUNTRY C
ED
EB
EE
PW
COUNTRY D
PW
COUNTRY E
Integrated ecological-economic Analysis of the Impact of
Climate Change on Food and Agriculture Systems
IPCC SRES Scenarios
Source: IPCC, 2001.
IPCC SRES Development Scenarios to 2100
Population, Scenario A1, B1
10000
GDP per caput
120000
A1, B1
100000
8000
A1-MDC
AML
6000
ASIA
REF
4000
OECD
GDP $/cap
millions
A1-LDC
80000
A2-MDC
A2-LDC
60000
B2-MDC
B2-LDC
40000
B1-MDC
2000
0
2000
B1-LDC
20000
2020
2040
2060
2080
0
2000
2100
Population, Scenario B2
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Population, Scenario A2
12000
16000
B2
A2
14000
10000
millions
AML
ASIA
6000
REF
OECD
4000
millions
12000
8000
AML
10000
ASIA
8000
REF
6000
OECD
4000
2000
0
2000
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
3.7
Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, reference climate 1961-90
3.8
Environmental constraints to rain-fed agriculture, HadCM3-A1FI 2080s
Impact of Climate Change on Extents of Land
with Constraints for Agriculture
Hadley A1f, 2080s
NO
SLIGHT
MEDIUM
SEVERE
H3A1F
CURRENT
535
2704
6061
15128
NO
471
457
11
3
0
SLIGHT
2528
66
2395
67
0
MEDIUM
5727
6
262
5379
80
SEVERE
15702
6
36
612
15048
Note: This transition table shows changes due to climate change of extents of land with
no, slight, moderate and severe constraints for agricultural use. The diagonal indicates
land remaining within the broad classes. Values to the right of the diagonal indicate a
worsening of agro-ecological conditions, values to the left of the diagonal an improvement.
Potential, 2080s
OCEANIA
Potential, reference
Cultivated, 1994-96
EUROPE
& RUSSIA
NORTH
AMERICA
Potential, 2080s
Potential, reference
Cultivated, 1994-96
Potential, 2080s
Potential, reference
Cultivated, 1994-96
0
100
200
VS+S
300
MS
400
F+P
500
Rain-fed
600
700
800
Irrigated
Potential, 2080s
ASIA
Potential, reference
Cultivated, 1994-96
Potential, 2080s
AFRICA
Potential, reference
Cultivated, 1994-96
LATIN
AMERICA
Potential, 2080s
Potential, reference
Cultivated, 1994-96
0
200
VS+S
400
MS
F+P
600
Rain-fed
800
Irrigated
1000
Comparison of
land with rainfed crop
production
potential for
current
climate, for
future climate
projected by
HadCM3-A1FI
in 2080s, and
land in use for
cultivation in
1994-96
(million ha).
Cultivated Land (1000 ha)
1800
Cultivated
Land
A2
1750
B2
1700
A1
B1
1650
A2
B2
1600
A1
1550
B1
1500
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
WORLD
1200
Cultivated Land (1000 ha)
Source: Fischer et al., 2002
DEVELOPING
COUNTRIES
projected for
different IPCC
economic
development paths
1150
1100
A2
1050
B2
1000
A1
950
B1
900
850
800
1990
2020
2050
2080
Changes in cereal-production potential versus increase in
atmospheric CO2 concentrations and related global warming
DEVELOPED, all land
DEVELOPED, current cultivated land
150
130
CSIRO
CGCM2
130
NCAR
HAD3
120
CGCM2
NCAR
110
HAD3
Index (1961-90 = 100)
Index (1961-90 = 100)
HAD3
140
CSIRO
120
CGCM2
NCAR
110
HAD3
NCAR
100
CGCM2
CSIRO
100
300
400
500
600
700
800
CSIRO
90
300
900
400
500
CO2 ppm
600
700
800
900
CO2 ppm
115
115
CSIRO
110
CGCM2
NCAR
105
HAD3
CGCM2
100
NCAR
HAD3
Index (1961-90 = 100)
Index (1961-90 = 100)
HAD3
CSIRO
110
CGCM2
NCAR
105
HAD3
NCAR
100
CGCM2
CSIRO
95
300
400
500
600
700
CO2 ppm
DEVELOPING, all land
800
900
CSIRO
95
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
CO2 ppm
DEVELOPING, current cultivated land
India: Climate Change Yield Impact - 2050
H3A1f
H3A2
H3B2
H3B1
Wheat
-22.8
-17.2
-15.9
-17.6
Rice
2.8
-2.1
-1.9
4.1
Maize
-1.4
-2.2
-2.3
-0.6
Pulses
9.2
3.7
5.0
6.8
Roots
4.2
-10.7
-2.3
8.1
Oil
-2.5
-5.5
-4.0
0.8
Sugar
-7.1
-6.9
-7.0
-4.2
CSA1
CSA2
CSB2
CSB1
-16.2
-14.8
-15.1
-16.0
-0.4
-2.2
-2.8
-3.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.8
-2.0
8.7
7.1
6.6
4.1
3.2
-0.6
3.2
-2.9
-2.0
-2.6
-2.8
-4.2
-5.9
-6.9
-7.0
-6.5
C2A2
C2B2
-18.0
-17.5
1.6
3.5
2.1
1.5
17.8
17.6
17.8
18.4
3.6
3.7
-8.0
-5.6
NCA2
NCB2
-15.1
-16.1
3.6
3.0
-0.1
-0.9
12.7
10.7
21.4
20.1
1.2
-0.3
-3.4
-3.2
Note: weighted yield impact for rain-fed and irrigated cultivation (% change).
India: Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture – 2080
H3A1f
H3A2
H3B2
H3B1
Cereal
Production
-15.7
-15.9
-9.8
-5.7
GDP
Agriculture
-4.8
-7.9
-4.4
-1.0
Cereal
Consumption
-7.5
-6.4
-4.4
-3.8
CSA1b
CSA2
CSB2
CSB1
-9.6
-10.4
-8.2
-7.5
-1.8
-3.9
-2.8
-2.7
-4.6
-4.1
-4.9
-5.0
C2A2
C2B2
-5.7
-5.4
1.0
2.5
-2.2
-1.2
NCA2
NCB2
-10.3
-5.7
0.9
1.9
-0.4
0.1
Note: percent change relative to respective reference projection without climate change.
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
Country-level
Climate Change
Impacts on
Cereal Production
Potential on
Currently
Cultivated Land
2080s
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
Country-level
Climate Change
Impacts on
Cereal Production
Potential on
Currently
Cultivated Land
2080s
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
Country-level
Climate Change
Impacts on
Cereal Production
Potential on
Currently
Cultivated Land
2080s
ECHAM4
HadCM2
CGCM1
Country-level
Climate Change
Impacts on
Cereal Production
Potential on
Currently
Cultivated Land
2080s
2080
B1
2050
A1
B2
2020
A2
Cereal
Production, Net
Imports of
Developing
Countries
1990
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Cereal Production (million tons)
projected for different
IPCC economic
development paths
PRODUCTION
Source: Fischer et al., 2002
2080
2050
B1
B2
A2
2020
NET IMPORTS,
CEREALS
1990
0
100
200
300
Cereal Net Imports (million tons)
400
Economic Impacts of Climate Change
Hadley A1F1 Scenario 2080
% Ag GDP
World
-1.5
Developed
-0.5
North America
7.5
Europe
-14.7
Devloping
Africa
Latin america
Asia
-1.9
-4.9
3.7
-4.3
% Cereal Production
-1.4
2.8
1.3
-3.4
-3.9
-0.6
15.9
-8.6
World Market prices( % change from Ref Scenario)
Cereals 19.5%
All crops 10.5%
Poeple at Risk of Hunger (millions)
350
300
250
A2
200
B2
150
B1
A1
100
50
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Source: Fischer et al., 2002
SOUTH,
SOUTEAST
and EAST
ASIA
Poeple at Risk of Hunger (millions)
AFRICA
Number of
People at Risk
of Hunger
projected for
different IPCC
economic
development paths
600
500
400
A2
B2
300
B1
A1
200
100
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Food Insecurity in the World (FAO, 2000)
Number of
Countries
Population
1997
millions
Undernourished
1997
millions
Average daily
food deficit
(kcal/capita)
Group 1
28
2180
223
240
Group 2
27
1517
339
285
Group 3
23
464
220
360
Food Security:
Impact of Climate Change on Food Production, 2080s
Number of
Countries
Population
1995
Undernourished
Cereal
millions
millions
1995
mill. tons
Production
Cereal Gap
1995
mill. tons
Climate
Impact
2080s
mill. tons
LOSING
ECHAM4
27
1661
386
362
-12
-60
HadCM2
25
1379
321
277
-10
-156
CGCM1
45
2077
396
467
-12
-135
ECHAM4
20
1592
210
481
-6
99
HadCM2
37
2057
275
598
-8
192
CGCM1
17
540
166
100
-6
42
WINNING
Additional number of People at Risk of Hunger
Additional Undernourished due to
Climate Change (millions)
due to Climate Change for socioeconomic conditions of
IPCC scenario A2
175
150
125
100
75
50
25
0
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm)
A1FI-HadCm3
A2-CSIRO
A2-HadCM3
AFRICA
B2-CSIRO
ASIA
Additional number of
undernourished resulting
in BLS simulations
plotted against different
levels of atmospheric
CO2 concentrations and
associated climate
changes in 2080s, for
projections of HadCM3
and CSIRO models
OTHER
B2-HadCM3
B1-CSIRO
B1-HadCM3
0
50
100
150
200
Additional Undernourished due to Climate Change (millions)
Source: Fischer et al., 2002
Food Systems
Policy Issues and Methodology Challenges
• Sustainability of Land Use Systems
– Economy-Environment Relations
– Efficiency vs. Equity
• Millennium Development Goals
 Spatially disaggregated modeling
 Methodological foundations and applications for
treating heterogeneity
- Theoretical foundations of aggregation (over heterogeneous
environments, actors, markets, commodities)
- Downscaling methods
 Cross-sector linkages:
- Urbanization; Infrastructure development
- Water supply and use
- Technological change
- Globalization and trade
Food Systems
Policy Issues and Methodology Challenges
• GHG stabilization
• Vulnerability, adaptation capacity
• Framework for adaptation and mitigation
 Climate change impacts
 Adaptation needs and options
 Land-based mitigation strategies
- Biomass energy
- Afforestation
- Land use patterns and management
 Climate variability and extreme events
 Treatment of uncertainty