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UK Climate Projections 2009 Regional Data – West Midlands 1 UK Climate projections 09 help us understand possible impacts in the UK and the need to reduce our emissions These projections of our future climate have been developed by Met Office paid for by Defra (also on behalf of Scotland, Wales and NI) They show us the reality of climate change and help us understand both the importance of the need to reduce our emissions and adapt to inevitable changes. A great deal of information is available including preprepared maps and graphs, which are available online to anyone A report ‘Adapting to Climate change: UK Climate Projections’ setting out what the Government is doing on adaptation will be available, plus further reports on the science underpinning the projections by UKCIP 2 How to access the projections ? • Further information can be found on the Defra website at: www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation • For detailed access to the UKCP User Interface http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk 3 For summer average temperature, we see significant increases over the decades to the 2080s 2020 +1.5ºC Increased Tourism Increased Heat stress 2040 +2.2ºC Infrastructure risks Risks to biodiversity Heat related deaths 2080 +3.7ºC But the temperature on the hottest day of the year could increase by up to 10ºC Risk to Food Security West Midlands central estimate Medium emissions The change for the 2080s is very unlikely to be less than 2ºC and very unlikely to be more than 6.1ºC 4 For rainfall we could see significant summer decreases 2020 -6% 2040 -11% 2080 -20% Reduced stream flow and water quality Increased drought Subsidence Decreased crop yields Serious water stress West Midlands central estimate Medium emissions For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than -43% and very unlikely to be higher than +6% 5 For rainfall we see significant winter increases 2020 +5% Increased winter flooding Increased subsidence 2040 +11% 2080 +18% But rainfall on the wettest day of the year could increase by up to 30% West Midlands central estimate Medium Emissions Risks to urban drainage Severe Transport disruption Risks of national Infrastructure For the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be lower than +3% and very unlikely to be higher than +39% 6 Facts and figures • The W Midlands landscape is one of enormous contrast with major industrial conurbations surrounded by vast areas of open countryside. • The region contains a wide variety of wildlife and landscapes with habitats including woodlands and forest, the upland grassland and heath lands of the north and west, the built up areas, gardens and open spaces of the major urban areas and the broad river valleys of the south east. • Over 70 percent of land used in the region is agricultural. • The region is at the centre of the national rail and road network, and disruption due to adverse weather can have major impacts for other parts of the country. • The West Midlands is already one of the driest regions in the country, with a high population density and therefore a limited amount of water available per person. 7 What are the key impacts in the West Midlands? • Built Infrastructure – heat stress - may be an issue in major urban centres such as Birmingham, due to the urban heat island effect • Natural Environment & Biodiversity - habitats and species could be adversely affected. This effect could be exacerbated by the fragmented nature of habitats in the region • Water availability - Currently the uses for abstraction and the environment have just enough water in the summer. • Flooding - Urban drainage systems such as those in Birmingham might not be able to cope with the projected increase in winter precipitation intensity and become overloaded. • Agriculture - general impact on crops across the region. • Infrastructure – Roads and railways have been affected in previous floods 8