Transcript SW anticipated changes - Severn Estuary Gateway

Climate Change:
Implications for the South West
Sarah Hendel-Blackford
SWCCIP Manager & Coordinator
8 June 2006
• Observed climate change in the South West
• The regional response: SWCCIP work
• Future predictions and implications for the
South West
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research
Annual-mean temperature rise, deg C
Global warming over next 40 years does not depend on emissions
scenarios:
High emissions
Medium-high
Medium-low
Low emissions
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate Predication and Research
Regional Response:
SWCCIP’s mission is to investigate, inform and advise on the
impacts of climate change in SW England
• Established 2001: Chaired by Environment Agency and
Government Office South West, partnership between key
regional stakeholders
• Emphasis on Adaptation
• 2003: “Warming to the Idea”, SW Climate Change Impacts
Scoping Study
The SW climate change study set
out to:
- Describe climate change scenarios for
the SW
- Identify the likely impacts of such change
- Suggest actions needed to respond to
impacts.
www.oursouthwest.com/climate
SWCCIP sector group work
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Agriculture
Biodiversity
Housing and Construction
Local Government
Tourism
Utilities
SW anticipated changes
Summary of anticipated changes likely to affect the south west
(2050s and 2080s):
Summer:
2050s:
2080s:
Warmer by 1.5 -3.5ºC, drier by 15 to 30%
Warmer by 2-5.5ºC, drier by 25 to 55%
Winter:
2050s:
2080s:
Milder by 1.0-2.0ºC, wetter by 10 to 30%
Milder by 1.5-3.5ºC, wetter by 5 to 15%, snowfall decrease by 70 to 90%
Source: WTI 2003 adapted from UKCIP02
“If you think you’re too small to make a difference, try going to
bed with a mosquito”
What you can do:
• Find out more: www.oursouthwest.com/climate
• Raise awareness and plan for future changes
• Case studies?
[email protected]
Conclusions:
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Climate change is a “now” issue
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(In)Action has long-term implications
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Climate change requires adaptation and mitigation