Transcript EHS Core Course PowerPoint Tempate

Co-Benefits of Energy Efficiency and Conservation:
Improving Air Quality & NJ Health Today,
Climate Change & Global Health Tomorrow
Kim Knowlton, DrPH
Post-Doctoral Research Scientist
Email: [email protected]
Public Hearing - NJ Clean Air Council
April 11, 2007
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Energy
Demand
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
 Metro NY City region home
to ~8% of US population,
including at-risk communities
 Ozone non-compliance area,
summer heat waves
 Global/regional climate
change may compound New
York City urban heat island
 Direct health effects of heat
vs. indirect ozone, pollen
effects
Newark
JFK
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, Landsat ETM 7
Aug 14 2002, 10:30 AM
(source: Geography Dept, Hunter College)
CORE
Climate change and human health:
Environmental Health Sciences
CCClimate Change and Public Health
impacts of heat and ozone
Certain population groups more
vulnerable to heat stress and
ozone air pollution
Risk factors include:
Age 65+
Pre-existing cardiovascular or
respiratory conditions
Lack of air conditioning, city
residence, low socioeconomic
status, social isolation
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Ozone Formation
CCClimate Change and Public Health
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
CCClimate Change and Public Health
US EPA (1991) in Kleinman and Lipfert (1996)
Note threshold~90°F (32°C)
Increase in ozone levels from the 1990s to the 2050s
Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)
Asheville, NC
Atlanta, GA
Baltimore, MD
Birmingham, AL
Boston, MA
Bridgeport/Stamford, CT
Burlington, VT
Charleston, SC
Charleston, WV
Charlotte, NC
Chicago, IL
Cincinnati, OH
Cleveland, OH
Columbus, GA
Columbus, OH
Dayton, OH
Des Moines, IA
Detroit, MI
Duluth, MN
Flint, MI
Greenville, SC
Harrisburg, PA
Huntsville, AL
Indianapolis, IN
Knoxville, TN
Lexington, KY
Little Rock, AR
Louisville, KY
Manchester, NH
Memphis, TN
Milwaukee, WI
Minneapolis/St. Paul, MN
Monroe, LA
Nashville, TN
Philadelphia, PA
Pittsburgh, PA
Portland, ME
Providence, RI
Raleigh, NC
Richmond, VA
Roanoke, VA
Scranton, PA
Springfield, IL
Springfield, MA
Springfield, MO
St. Louis, IL
Trenton, NJ
Viriginia Beach, VA
Washington, DC
Wilmington, NC
1990's
Increase to 2050's
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Average Number of
8-Hour Ozone
NAAQS
Exceedance
Days/Summer
35
Bell et al. Climatic Change (2007)
CORE
Change and Public Health
Environmental
Healththe
Sciences
What
might
future holdCCClimate
in our
region?
The New York Climate & Health Project
Linking models for global and regional climate, land use and cover, and
air quality…
to examine the potential public health impacts of heat and air pollution
under alternative scenarios of climate change & regional land use in
the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s in the NYC metropolitan region.
Funded by the USEPA STAR Research Program.
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
CCClimate Change and Public Health
Climate change impacts projected in NYC
 More frequent, more severe
storms in NYC
 Summer heat-related mortality
could nearly double by the 2050s
and more than triple by the 2080s
 Summer ozone-related mortality
will increase both inside the five
boroughs and beyond city limits
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
CCClimate Change and Public Health
Results: Summer heat & O3 mortality risk assessment
Climate-Related Mortality, Current vs. Future Model Simulations
4,000
summer
heatrelated
mortality
3,500
Attributed Deaths
3,000
summer
ozonerelated
mortality
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1990s
2020s A2
2050s A2
Decade
2080s A2
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
Climate Change and Public Health
Immediate Local “Co-Benefits”:
Reductions in Ozone- and Particulate Matter-Related
Health Impacts
Health effects avoided from 2000 to 2020CC
in New York City due to ozone & particulate
matter reductions if GHG mitigation measures are taken (Cifuentes et al. EHP 2001)
100,000,000
10,000,000
1,000,000
100,000
10,000
1,000
100
10
1
Mortality effects Infant mortality
Chronic
bronchitis
Hospital
respiratory
admissions
Emergency
room visits
Asthma attacks Acute bronchitis Work loss days
Restricted
activity days
• Under increased
CO2 & temperature
conditions, increased
ragweed plant
biomass, growth rate,
pollen production
(Ziska et al. J Allergy Clin
Immunol 2003)
• CO2 concentrations
in NYC 37% higher
than rural sites
(Knowlton et al., unpublished
data)
• Possible local
effects of emissions
on local health?
Beggs & Bambrick Environ Health Perspect (2005)
CORE
Environmental Health Sciences
CCClimate Change and Public Health
What can we do about it?
Adaptation
Mitigation
 Energy efficiency & conservation
 Reducing other greenhouse gases
from industry, agriculture, waste
management thru voluntary measures
& government regulation
 Rely more on renewable energy
sources (wind, solar, etc.)
 Decarbonisation - CO2 removal and
storage
 Biological carbon sequestration
 Heat-health alert systems
 Air conditioning distribution
 Water resource and shoreline
management
 Wetlands restoration
 Storm evacuation planning
 Disaster preparedness
planning
 Revise corporate & business
plans
Improve community resiliency