Transcript The science of climate change

The science of climate change
Sir David King
Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government
British Council/Warsaw University Centre for
Environmental Studies
30 March 2005
The earth’s energy budget
Source: NASA
Carbon cycles
Glacial cycles of past 800,000 years
Source: Nature Vol 429
Carbon dioxide levels over the last 60,000 years
379ppm
2004
Source University of Berne and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Simulated global warming
Temperature rise degrees C
1.0
Observed
simulated by model
0.5
0.0
1850
1900
1950
2000
Source: Hadley Centre
Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C
Annual European summer temperatures
4
3
Annual average
Smoothed trend
Model – natural factors only
Summer 2003 value
2
1
0
1900
1950
2000
Source: Hadley Centre
Possible flooding in the UK by 2080s
Foresight Flood and Coastal
Defence Project – key findings
• Continuing with existing policies is not an option
– risk becomes unacceptable levels in 3 of the 4
scenarios considered
• The risks can be reduced to present day levels
using a broad portfolio of responses
• There are difficult decisions to be taken:
– Invest more in sustainable approaches
– Adapt to increased flooding
Mitigation - creating a low carbon
economy
• UK White Paper published February 2003.
Overall objectives are:
– To put the UK on a path to cut CO2 emissions
by some 60% by 2050, with real progress by
2020
– To maintain the reliability of energy supplies
– To promote competitive markets in the UK and
beyond
– To tackle fuel poverty
Improved energy
efficiency…
…and a diverse mix of
renewables
G8 and EU challenges
• Climate Change is a UK priority for G8 and
EU Presidencies in 2005 (African
development is the other key priority)
• Climate change is a global problem and
requires a global response
– Kyoto, European Emissions trading
• Clear vision of energy futures required to
enable global collaboration to move forward
• Science, engineering and technology have key
roles to play