Transcript MAKING (OR NOT MAKING) OUR WORLD DISASTER RESILIENT

MAKING (OR NOT MAKING) OUR
WORLD DISASTER RESILIENT
IS OUR LEGACY
History Will Decide Which Legacy We
Actually Leave
Part 2
Walter Hays, Global Alliance
for Disaster Reduction,
Vienna, Virginia, USA
PRESENT UNDERSTANDING OF
ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES
• During 2007-2008, the
world began to
consider seriously the
environmental impacts
of global climate
change and the
possibility of
exacerbated impacts
from floods,
landslides, droughts,
and wildfires.
• Warmer air and warmer
water are a Rx for
enhancing severe
windstorms.
• Warmer air can hold more
water and unleash more
energy, making wind fields
stronger, storm surges
higher, rainfall heavier, and
floods and landslides more
frequent.
PRESENT UNDERSTANDING OF
ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES
• Earthquakes,
 Warmer air and
tsunamis, and
warmer water
volcanoes have
may explain the
tectonic oriincrease of
gins, but some
flooding in
of their physical Europe Asia,
effects can be
South America,
exacerbated by
and the USA
global climate
during 2007 and
change.
2008..
PRESENT UNDERSTANDING OF
THE JET STREAM AND FLOODING
• A number of
• Experts now know
flooding
that certain
disasters
configurations of
occurred almost
the jet stream can
simultaneously
produce flooding
around the
nearly simultaneWorld in 2007
ously in different
and 2008.
parts of the
World..
RELIABLE TEMPERATURE
MEASUREMENTS FROM AROUND
THE WORLD DURING THE PAST
150 YEARS SUPPORT GLOBAL
CLIMATE CHANGE.
1. THE AVERAGE GLOBAL
TEMPERATURE HAS INCREASED
BY 1.73 DEGREES F DURING THE
PAST 100 YEARS TO 57.9
DEGREES F
2. THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE IS
WARMING FASTER THAN THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE
3.
SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS INDICATE THAT THE
TROPOSPHERE IS
WARMING FASTER THAN
THE EARTH’S SURFACE.
NOTE: THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PHYSICS OF
GREENHOUSE GASES
ABSORBING HEAT.
4. THE EARTH’S OCEANS
ABSORB 20 TIMES AS MUCH
HEAT AS THE EARTH’S
ATMOSPHERE.
5. THE PH LEVEL OF THE EARTH’S
OCEANS HAS INCREASED.
NOTE: THIS INDICATES AN
INCREASED ABSORPTION OF
CARBON DIOXIDE.
6. AVERAGE GLOBAL SEA LEVEL
HAS INCREASED BY 4.7 INCHES
SINCE THE LAST ICE AGE.
7. SEA LEVEL RISES FOR TWO
REASONS: A) WATER EXPANDS
WHEN IT IS WARMER, AND B)
WATER VOLUME INCREASES
FROM MELT WATER.
8. IF THE FLOATING ARCTIC ICE
CAPS MELT, GLOBAL SEA
LEVEL WILL NOT BE AFFECTED.
9. IF ALL THE SNOW AND ICE IN
GREENLAND MELTED, GLOBAL
SEA LEVEL WILL RISE 24 FEET.
10. THE ALBEDO (PERCENT
OF LIGHT REFLECTED)
FOR FRESH SNOW IS 80-90
PERCENT, BUT ONLY
50-60 PERCENT FOR
MELTING ICE.
12. THE SUN PROVIDES AN
AVERAGE OF ABOUT 1370
WATTS OF POWER THROUGH
EM RADIATION TO EVERY
SQUARE METER OF SURFACE IT
STRIKES.
NOTE: THIS IS CALLED THE SOLAR
CONSTANT.
13. THE SOLAR SPECTRUM
INCLUDES VISIBLE (ROYGBIV),
ULTRAVIOLET (A WAVE LENGTH
TOO SHORT TO SEE), AND
INFRARED LIGHT (A WAVE
LENGTH TOO LONG TO SEE).
14. ABOUT 30 PERCENT OF
THE INCOMING SOLAR
SPECTRUM IS REFLECTED
BACK TO SPACE FROM
CLOUDS, SNOW, AND, TO A
LESSER DEGREE, BY OTHER
SURFACES.
15. THE BALANCE (ABOUT 70
PERCENT) OF THE
INCOMING SOLAR
SPECTRUM IS ABSORBED
BY LAND, AIR, WATER, OR
ICE.
16. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
OCCURS WHEN AN EARTH
WARMED BY THE SOLAR
SPECTRUM RADIATES INVISIBLE
INFRARED LIGHT BACK, BUT,
INSTEAD OF GOING BACK TO
SPACE, IT IS PARTLY ABSORBED BY
GREENHOUSE GASES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, MAKING THE
ATMOSPHERE WARMER.
17. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
OCCURS NATURALLY.
18. THE ISSUE IS: “HAVE HUMAN
ACTIVITIES ENHANCED THE
GREENHOUSE EFFECT BY
INCREASING GREENHOUSE
GASES ABOVE HISTORIC
LEVELS?”
19. WITHOUT THE NATURAL
GREENHOUSE EFFECT, PLANET
EARTH WOULD BE AT A MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURE; E.G.,
MINUS 2 DEGREES F.
20. WITH AN ENHANCED GREENHOUSE
EFFECT, PLANET EARTH WOULD BE
WARMER THAN THE AVERAGE
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 57.9
DEGREES IT NOW ENJOYS.
21. CARBON DIOXIDE ENTERS THE
ATMOSPHERE NATURALLY.
22 NATURAL PHYSICAL
PROCESSES REMOVE CARBON
DIOXIDE FROM THE ATMOSPHERE.
23. AS THE GREENHOUSE
EFFECT CAUSES HIGHER
TEMPERATURES IN THE
ATMOSPHERE, THE
REMOVAL RATE OF CARBON
DIOXIDE IS DECREASED.
•"Heat waves and
heavy downpours are
very likely to increase
in frequency and
intensity.”
"Substantial areas of
North America are
likely to have more
frequent droughts of
greater severity.”
•
“Hurricane wind
speeds, rainfall
intensity, and storm
surge levels are likely
to increase.”
•
• The
strongest winter storms
are likely to become more
frequent, with stronger winds
and more extreme wave
heights."
Soil amplification of
earthquake ground
shaking is likely to be
more pervasive.
•
Landslides triggered
in earthquakes are
likely to be more
extensive.
•
The impacts of
tsunami wave run up
will be more
extensive.
•
“By the end of this century
rainfall amounts expected to
occur every 20 years now
could be taking place every
five years.”
• “An increase in frequency
can lead to more frequent
occurrences of flooding
events such as those that
occurred worldwide during
2007.“
FLOODS IN NORTH KOREA:
AUGUST 7-14, 2007
FLOODING IN CHINA: JULY 2007
FLOODING IN CHINA: JUNE –
JULY 2007
FLOODING IN CHINA: JULY 2007
(50,000 kg of dead fish)
FLOODING IN HENLEY ON THAMES,
ENGLAND: JULY 2007
FLOODING: TEWKESBURY,
ENGLAND: JULY 2007
FLOODING IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE,
ENGLAND: JULY 2007
FLOODING AND OIL SPILL IN
COFFEYVILLE, KANSAS: JULY 2007
FLOODING IN THE SUDAN: JULY
2007
FLOODING IN IRAN: JUNE 2007
FLOODING IN MARBLE FALLS,
TEXAS: JUNE 2007
FLOODING IN LAGOS, NIGERIA:
JUNE 2007
FLOODING IN PAKISTAN: JUNE
2007
FLOODING IN KANSAS, USA:
MAY 2007
FLOODING IN SALINAS,
KANSAS: MAY 2007
FLOODING IN BOLIVIA: FEBRUARY
2007