Transcript Climate Change Elements for a discussion

Climate Change
Elements for a discussion
IFAD
Rome, May 18-19, 2007
Alejandro Deeb
% change in runoff by 2050
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Many of the major “food-bowls” of the world are projected to become
significantly drier
Globally there will be more precipitation
Higher temperatures will tend to reduce run off
A few important areas drier (Mediterranean, southern South America,
northern Brazil, west and south Africa)
Some climate change issues
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Patterns of precipitation and runoff will change substantially
Rain in fewer, heavier events leading to more floods and dry
spells; less ground water recharge
Projections for increased number of rainy days (left) and amount of rain
per wet day (Right) for 2041-2060 period based on modeling
(HadRM2)
Fewer rainy days
But heavier rain
Europe:
Changing flood frequency
Lenher et al 2006 Climatic Change
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Over much
of Europe
“one in a
hundred
year floods”
will occur
every
couple of
decades
Mountain water systems
South America:
Yanamarey Glacier, Peru
1982
1997
1987
2005
Retreat in volume and area of the Chacaltaya
glacier (Bolivia) since 1940
Source: Francou, 2004
Sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Caribbean for
August 2005 (0.5 Celsius isothermals above 1961-1990 average)
Source: IRI, 2005
The Greenhouse Effect
Met Office Hadley Centre
Strong Global Warming Observed
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Based on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)
Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in
the atmosphere post 1850:
Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)
Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning
fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950
25
Gt CO2
20
15
10
5
0
1850
1875
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s
(IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
(SRES), published in 2000
The A1 storyline and scenario describes a future world of
very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks
in mid-century and declines thereafter and, in several
variations of it, the rapid introduction of new and more
efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are
convergence between regions, capacity-building, and
increased cultural and social interactions, with a
substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita
income.
A1 is subdivided into A1FI (fossil-fuel intensive), A1T
(high-technology), and A1B (balanced), with A1FI
generating the most CO2 emissions and A1T the least (of
the A1 storyline, and the second lowest emissions of all
six marker scenarios). But even in the A1T world,
atmospheric concentrations of CO2 still near a doubling of
preindustrial levels by 2100.
For a contrasting vision of the world’s social and
technological future, SRES offers the B1 storyline, which
is (marginally) the lowest-emissions case of all the IPCC’s
scenarios. The storyline and scenario family is one of a
converging world with the same global population as A1,
peaking in mid-century and declining thereafter, but with
more rapid change in economic structures towards
service and information economies, which is assumed to
cause a significant decrease in energy intensity. The B1
world finds efficient ways of increasing economic output
with less material, cleaner resources, and more efficient
technologies. Many scientists and policymakers have
doubted whether a transition to a B1 world is realistic and
whether it can be considered equally likely when
compared to the scenarios in the A1 family. The IPCC did
not discuss probabilities of each scenario, making a riskmanagement framework for climate policy problematic
since risk is probability times consequences.
Dangerous climate
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0.6 C
0.6 C
0.7 C
1.0 C
1.6 C
2-3 C
4
C
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Coral bleaching
West Antarctic losing ice
Kilimanjaro glacier gone
Tropical Glacier in the Andes gone
Onset of melting of Greenland
Collapse of Amazon rainforest
Collapse of THC current
Source: Exeter Conference, 2005
Where is it coming from?
Country
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USA
EU-25
Germany
Japan
China
India
Mexico
Brazil
Total
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Total
(BTA)
6.9
4.7
1.0
1.3
4.9
1.9
0.5
0.8
33.6
Source: WRI, 2006
Ton/GDP
ton/$Mpp
720
450
470
400
1020
770
590
680
Ton/cap
24.6
10.5
12.3
10.4
3.9
1.9
5.2
5.0
To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must
start to fall soon & developing countries must
be part of the solution
Source IPPC
SPACC
MACC
ACCC
CPACC
Building awareness
and strengthening
knowledge base
Creating an enabling
environment for
adaptation
Adaptation
Implementation
Public
Awareness
and Participation
Implementation
Institutions
Policy
Knowledge
Base
Public
Awareness
and Participation
Implementation
Institutions
Policy
• Policy framework for
Public
Awareness
and Participation
Institutions
Knowledge
Base
Policy
Knowledge
Base
• Building Awareness.
• Building monitoring and analysis
capability
• Building planning capacity in
institutions
• Developing national policy
framework for adaptation.
• Mainstreaming climate change issues
into key sector activities.
• Preparation of pilot adaptation
projects.
• Further strengthening of awareness
andparticipation.
• Further strengthening of knowledge
base
adaptation in place
• Projects being implemented.
• Awareness and participation
high.
• Monitoring, analysis and
planning integrated
throughout all national and
sectoral planning .