Transcript November 2014

Climate Change Global News and Topical Issues
Presentation
Edition: 1
Version 1.3
Issued : 14/11/14
Prepared by: Stephen Jones with 2 additional BBC slides by P Brow
This presentation has been provided to assist engagement by ClimateNI members with
staff in their own organisations and with policy makers. Whilst it may be edited down to
suit the particular audience, the second slide should always be presented to set out the
role of ClimateNI, and the ClimateNI logo shall be retained on all other slides.
About Us:
Climate Northern Ireland is an inter-sectoral network devoted to increasing understanding of climate
change impacts and risks within Northern Ireland and promoting the adaptation actions necessary to
address these.
Climate Northern Ireland is facilitated by Northern Ireland Environment Link, a national forum and
networking body for organisations interested in the environment.
Climate Northern Ireland was set up and funded by the Department of
the Environment (DoE) to help fulfil its obligations to address climate
change.
Climate Northern Ireland is part of the Climate UK network, which
consists of 12 climate change partnerships in Scotland, Wales and the
English regions who work together to deliver coordinated action on
climate change at the local and national level.
Further Information:
Climate Northern Ireland (CNI), 89 Loopland Drive, Belfast, NI, BT6 9DW
T +44 (0)28 9094 2152
E [email protected]
Website: www.climatenorthernireland.org.uk
Global - Developments
• May 2013 - Global Co2
levels measured to be
400ppm (parts per
million) for the first time
in recorded history.
• The amount considered
to be safe is 350ppm.
• When the ratio passes
450ppm, some scientists
question the ability to
stop global warming of
at least 2 °C.
Source: NOAA/ESRL
Global - Developments
•
Arctic Sea Ice has declined by 4.3% per
decade since the 1970s, The 2012 ice
minimum is the lowest amount on record;
2014 and 2013 are the 6th and 7th lowest
respectively.
– Predicted to be no ice in Summer by mid-century.
•
The past 10 years were the warmest since the
start of modern measurements 160 years ago
and it was also a decade of unprecedented
extremes in the climate according to a report
by the World Meteorological Organisation
(WMO).
•
Sea Levels have risen 16cm in the last century
with projections of 40cm -80cm this century
(at least 3cm per decade). However, current
emissions pathway is actually higher than
worst case IPCC projections that equate to the
80cm rise.
Source: Kinnard et. al, Nature 479, 509–512 (2011)
Source: NOAA/NCDC
Global - Air Temperature Hiatus
•
•
Between 1998 and 2012, climate scientists observed that, although the rise in global mean
surface air temperature has continued, the increase was approximately only one third of
that from 1951 to 2012.
One of the main reasons for this is that the oceans store about 90% of the earth’s excess
heat. Recent research suggests that the upper 6500ft (2000m) is where all of the warming
has occurred so far, citing virtually none in the deep ocean.
It Is a complex system, with shortterm factors such as the La Nina
pacific cooling effect, Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (a pattern of temperature
shifts that occurs about every 20 or
30 years) and the solar minimum all
playing a role.
However; global warming has not
slowed down and NASA emphasises
that this slowing of air temperature is
likely only to be temporary.
Source: Nuccitelli et al. (2012)
Global - News
IPCC Fifth Assessment
released between 2013
and 2014 in 3 Working
Group Reports:
WG1 – The Physical Science
Basis
Each recent decade warmer than the
last in terms of sea, surface and air
temperature.
Clear evidence to suggest that humans
are causing widespread climate and
ecological change.
Measurements from the ocean surface,
show increasing temperature, CO2
content and acidification.
Source: CCC, adapted from IPCC 5th Assessment Report
Global - News
IPPC WG2 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
• In recent decades, changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems on all
continents and across the oceans.
– Physical: Extreme weather impacts on natural and human environments.
– Social: Disruption to vital services like electricity can be particularly challenging for the
vulnerable in society, for example those with physical disability or mental health issues.
– Environmental: Research ahs shown that Impacts on natural systems are the most certain in
terms accurate measurements of species decline for example.
– Economic: Widely ranging, from a lack of resilience in supply chains, through to physical
infrastructure damage.
• Long-term, systemic strategic planning is the answer.
IPPC WG3 – Mitigation of Climate Change
• Total anthropogenic GHG emissions have continued to increase from 1970 to 2010. About half of
cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years.
• Globally, economic and population growth continue to be the most important drivers of increases in
CO2, currently around 400ppm (350ppm is the healthy limit), which needs to stay under 500ppm to
make it “more likely than not” that by 2100 warming can be capped at 2 °C compared to pre-industrial
levels.
• Baseline scenarios, those without additional mitigation, result in global mean surface temperature
increases in 2100 of between 3.7 °C to 4.8 °C and CO2 measurements well in advance of 700ppm.
Fossil fuels should be phased out
by 2100 says IPCC
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, BBC News
Sunday 2 November 2014
The IPCC's Synthesis Report was published on Sunday in Copenhagen, after a week of
intense debate between scientists and government officials.
'Science has spoken'
The Synthesis Report summarises three previous reports from the IPCC, which outlined the
causes, the impacts and the potential solutions to climate change.
It re-states many familiar positions:
• Warming is "unequivocal" and the human influence on climate is clear
• The period from 1983 to 2012, it says, was likely the warmest 30 year period of the last
1,400 years
• Warming impacts are already being seen around the globe, in the acidification of the
oceans, the melting of arctic ice and poorer crop yields in many parts
• Without concerted action on carbon, temperatures will increase over the coming decades
and could be almost 5C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century
"Science has spoken," UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said. "There is no ambiguity
in their message. Leaders must act. Time is not on our side."
Will Obama's climate surprise deliver a global deal?
By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent
12 November 2014
In 2009 the US pledged to cut emissions in 2025 by 30% compared to 2005 levels.
The world hissed and booed, and called it a failure.
Historic Agreement
Today, in an "historic" agreement announced with China, the US are committing to cutting their
emissions by less than that, (26-28% by 2025 - the same date) and the world is cheering.
The Chinese promise not just to peak their emissions by 2030 but to increase the share of nonfossil fuels in their energy mix to 20% by the same date.
But in terms of steering the world to below the 2 degree C target that scientists believe is the
threshold of danger, this agreement doesn't cut the mustard.
According to some observers, the Beijing deal is significant because it underlines the fact that
China is changing its position. "It signals a shift," according to Liz Gallagher from environmental
think-tank E3G.
"The ball is in play, so now others, not just developing counties but the likes of Japan,
Canada and Australia, there is now pressure on them to come forward with something
themselves," said Samantha Smith.
Global - News
Setbacks:
• Australia – Repealed carbon tax and closed several key agencies
which provided climate/ renewable energy information to both
citizens and government.
• Warsaw COP 19 – Climate meeting fell short of any meaningful
resolution, with charities walking out and Japan scaling back its
long-term carbon targets.
• A pathway to Paris 2015 was approved. Governments around the
world have just over a year to set out their mitigation targets from
2020 to prevent a temperature rise above the 2°C limit. However,
these are contributions rather than commitments and while
victims of disaster will receive aid, no liability will be linked to
developed countries.
Observed change in surface temperature 1901 - 2012
(IPCC, 2013)
Progress:
• Global players have set targets for action:
– USA: Climate Action Plan designed to achieve a 17% reduction on 2005 levels by 2020, including curbs
on carbon dioxide emissions from electricity-generating plants and the establishment of a $1bn
“climate resiliency fund.”
– China: World’s biggest carbon polluter announced plans to create an overall cap on carbon emissions,
set to be announced by 2016 at the latest.
• September 2014 saw a global climate march and a successful UN Climate Summit in New York. Countries
now have until May 2015 to draft the climate deal which will be signed off at COP 21 in Paris, Dec 2015.
EU/UK - Strategy
• Mitigation
– EU targets: Climate and energy policy framework for 2030 – On 23rd October 2014 the
European Council ratified targets to reduce carbon emissions to 40% below 1990 levels
by 2030. It also agreed a binding target for 27% renewable energy in each country, also
by 2030.
– UK targets: Climate Act 2008 – 80% reduction in carbon emissions on 1990 levels by
2050.
• Adaptation
– EU: Adaptation Strategy: Outlines actions which promote adaptation in member states,
including provision of LIFE funding and ensuring the inclusion of adaptation in numerous
policies across the EU.
– UK: National Adaptation Plan: The UK strategy for adaptation, setting out key aims and
priority actions in each sector, based on risks identified in UKCP09 and the 2012 CCRA.
NI – News and Developments
Timeline of Extreme Weather Events in NI
February 2013
10cm (4 in) of snow affects
areas across Northern Ireland,
leading to over 30 school
closures and treacherous road
conditions.
March 2013
July 2013
January 2014
Warmest July on record.
Average daily high temperature
was 21.8 degrees - more than
three degrees above average.
134% of the average January rainfall.
Strong winds and high tides cause serious
flooding in County Down. Roads closed and
sandbags distributed in coastal areas and
East Belfast.
December 2013
Coldest March since 1962: 20cm of snow in many
Strong winds cause disruption
areas. 40,000 animals died in the cold weather. Feed to power supply with close to
flown in for animals and LNG shipped in to ease
30,000 homes affected.
energy pressure. Electricity cut to a number of homes
and roads blocked with drifts up to 10ft in places.
February 2014
Heavy rain in the east while
snowfalls hit the west. Several main
roads closed. Fishing industry in
Kilkeel hit hard after almost a
month without leaving harbour.
NI – News and Developments
• Northern Ireland Adaptation Plan
– Released in January 2014, the plan sets out priority areas for action in the areas of
Flooding, Water, Agriculture and Forestry and the Natural Environment ,based on
UKCP09 and the 2012 NI CCRA.
– Plan to be updated in 5 years time, in line with 2017 UK CCRA.
• NI Flood Maps
– Created by Rivers Agency to show low, medium and high probability events of tidal, river
and surface water flooding across NI. They include the ability to look back at historical
flooding and also ahead, to assess the effects of climate change.
• ICE State of the Nation Report
– Assessment made every 5 years released in August 2014, and found much of NI
infrastructure not fit for purpose based on climate projections.
• DOE Flood Payments
– After flooding during October 2014, Mark Durkan again opened the emergency flood
payments scheme, providing £1000 to help make each affected household habitable
again as quickly as possible.
Climate Change – Indirect Issues
•
Several opportunities are expected to arise from Climate Change, such as
extended growing seasons in Northern Europe and the opening of a Northern
shipping route through the Arctic.
•
However these positives are far outweighed by serious consequences, not just for
the direct human and natural environment, but those which indirectly affect the
global political or economic situation.
•
The issues raised show the complexity of the challenge. From the interruption of
supply chains, to tension over land claims in the oil and mineral-rich polar regions,
it is not just the environment which will be affected. The response must be crosssector; both global and local.