Transcript Climate Change by Garfield Barnwell

CPDC/Commonwealth Foundation
Caribbean Regional Civil Society
Consultation
Presentation at the Consultation Panel on
“CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENT”
By
Garfield Barnwell
Director, Sustainable Development
Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Secretariat
Turkeyen, Greater Georgetown, GUYANA
Grand Coastal Hotel, Guyana
28 June, 2011
1
Structure of Presentation
•
•
•
•
Background Information
Climate Change in a Global Context
Implications of Climate Change Science
Responding to the global challenges: the
basis for action
• Observations and some key questions
2
Background Information
• Climate change has emerged as one of the
greatest threats to sustainable development.
• The scientific consensus is that increased
concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions,
resulting from human activities, have
contributed to global temperature increases.
• Predicted impacts, depending on the extent
of temperature change, include sea level rises
and more severe and frequent droughts and
storms.
3
Figure I: The Greenhouse Effect
Met Office Hadley Centre
4
Figure 2 :Strong Global Warming Observed
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
Based on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)
5
Figure III : Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon
Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850
6
Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)
Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning
fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950
25
Gt CO2
20
15
10
5
0
1850
1875
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT
1900
1925
1950
1975
2000
7
Global emissions of greenhouse gases
come from a wide range of sources
Agriculture
5.6 Gt 14%
mostly from
soils &
livestock
Land Use
changes
7.6 Gt 18%
primarily
deforestation
Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.
Electricity &
Heat
Generation
Energy –
25.6 Gt 61%
Consuming
fossil fuels
Transport
Other
energy
Industry
All GHG in CO2 equivalent
8
Global emissions are forecast to grow from all sources
transport & power generation growing fastest
18
2002 actual emissions
+2.1%
16.8
16
2030 projected emissions
14
annual average forecast %
growth in emissions to 2030
+2.1%
12
10
9.4
+1.2%
9.3
8.1
+1.1%
8
5.6
5.4
6
7.6
7.6
5.8
+0.7%
4.1
4
1.5
2
1.9
0
Power
Generation and
Heat Plants
Transport
Industry
Source: International Energy Agency, US Environmental Protection Agency, CO2 equivalent
Agriculture
Waste
Land Use
9
Projected Changes in Global Average Temperature
to 2100 under Different IPCC Emissions Scenarios
(highest – A1FI, lowest – B1)
10
Warming will lead to major changes in water
availability across the globe, with
consequences for droughts and floods
Change in the
2050s, based
on IPCC
Scenario A1
11
Source: Arnell (2004)
Increase in global temperature (relative to preindustrial levels) for different stabilisation levels
(expressed as CO2 equivalent).
Temperature change by 2100
(relative to pre-industrial)
Temperature change at
equilibrium (relative to preindustrial)
Stabilisation
Level
(CO2
equivalent)
Temperature
change based on
IPCC 2001
climate models
Temperature
change - based
on 2004 Hadley
Centre
ensembles
Temperature
change based on IPCC
2001 climate
models
Temperature
change based on 2004
Hadley Centre
ensembles
400ppm
1.2 - 2.5C
1.6 - 2.8C
0.8 - 2.4C
1.3 - 2.8C
450ppm
1.3 - 2.7C
1.8 - 3.0C
1.0 - 3.1C
1.7 - 3.7C
550ppm
1.5 - 3.2C
2.2 - 3.6C
1.5 - 4.4C
2.4 - 5.3C
12
Source: Based on den Elzen and Meinhausen (2005).
Larger developing countries account for much
of the forecast rise in emissions
9
145%
39%
8
Projected emissions, 2025
7
2002 emissions
Gt CO2
6
5
11%
Energy Emissions only
4
3
95%
32%
5%
2
78%
63%
99%
1
0
US
West
Europe
China
Russia
Japan
India
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT Energy Information Administration Reference Scenario, Energy emissions only
Africa
Mexico
Brazil
13
Current emissions per capita are higher in
developed countries
20
2002 CO2
Energy Emissions only
Tonnes per person per year CO2
20
15
11
10
10
9
4
5
3
2
1
0
United States
of America
Russian
Federation
Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT
Japan
European
Union (25)
World
China
Brazil
India
14
To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must
start to fall soon & developing countries must
be part of the solution
15
Source IPPC
The Focus of the Regional Strategic
Framework
• Adaptation challenges over time depends on
Mitigation progress;
• Progress on Mitigation determines the
approach to address the critical sectoral
issues relating to Agriculture, Ecosystems,
Water, Health, among others
The Regional Strategy
• The strategy document is guided by two
processes:
(1)—the outcome of the BPOA and the MSI which
is complemented by the UNFCCC decisions
relating to Adaptation and the special
circumstances of SIDS;
(2) The institutional information and best practices
developed from the implementation of a series of
region projects
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The CARICOM Adaptation
Guidelines
• The CARICOM Adaptation Programme is guided by the
Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee’s recommended
stages outlined below:
• Stage I: Planning, which includes studies of possible
impacts of climate change, to identify particularly
vulnerable countries or regions and policy options for
adaptation and appropriate capacity building;
• Stage II: Measures, including further capacity-building,
which may be taken to prepare for adaptation, as
envisaged in Article 4.1(e) of the UNFCCC; and
• Stage III: Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation,
including insurance, and other adaptation measures as
envisaged by Article 4.1(b) and Article 4.4 of the
UNFCCC.
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Summary of the CARICOM Programme of
Adaptation ( 1997-2011)
SPACC 2007 - 2011
PILOT ADAPTATIONS
MACC 2004 - 2008
Implementation
Building awareness
and strengthening
knowledge base
CPACC 1997 - 2001
ACCC 2001 - 2004
Public
Awareness
and Participation
Implementation
Building awareness
and strengthening
knowledge base
Institution
Institution
Public
Awareness
and Participation
Implementation
Institution
Public
Awareness
and Participation
Institution
1. Building Awareness
2. Building monitoring and
analysis capacity
3. Building planning capacity
in institutions
Policy
Knowledge
Base
Policy
Knowledge
Base
Knowledge
Base
1.
2.
3.
4.
Policy f ramework f or adaptation in place
Projects implemented
Awareness and participation accomplished
Monitoring, analy sis and planning integrated
throughout all national and sectoral planning
1. Building national policy f ramework
f or adaptation
2. Mainstreaming climate change issues
into key sector activ ities
3. Preparation of pilot adaptation projects
4. Further strenghtening of awareness
and participation andknowledge base
19
20
21
ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE
( A Caribbean Programme of Action)
Factors Considered :
•Geographic location
Natural and Anthropogenic
effects
•Impact of Global Economics
Changes on the Caribbean
•Desire for Economic
sustainability in the region
• The consequences of global
warming and sea level rise in
the Caribbean
•The CARICOM Adaptation
Programme
GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS
• The Caribbean consists of 28 insular and coastal states and
ten territories;
• The World Bank in a May 2009 Report on Climate Change in
the Hemispheric indicated that from a list of the 25
vulnerable countries to sea level rise 6 CARICOM
(Suriname,Bahamas,Guyana,Belize,Jamaica,Haiti) are
among the most vulnerable)
• It is one of the largest salt water seas and has an area of
about 2,754,000 km² (1,063,000 square miles).
• It has an estimated population of 40 million people of which
some 70% live in coastal cities, towns and villages
• Approximately 38 percent of the population can be
classified as poor.
NATURAL & ANTHROPOGENIC
FACTORS
• six months of hurricane activity
• significant climate variability
• several active volcanoes, both on land and
under water
• Significant seismic activity
• Poor land marine practices
• Damage to ecosystems use management
coupled with poor
ECONOMIC FACTORS
• Elements of economic globalization impacting
the region’s environment through reduction of
access to traditional markets as a result of the
WTO agreement, since
• Economic activities are frequently dominated
by tourism and specialized agriculture such as
sugarcane, and
• Economic growth has failed to keep pace with
population growth.
OBSERVED CHANGES IN CURRENT
CLIMATE
• The region is already experiencing changing weather
patterns with more intense extremes including drought,
floods and hurricanes.
• Temperature records have shown an increase during
the last century, with the 1990s being the warmest
decade since the beginning of the 20th century.
• Rainfall trends have been changing along with
increased flooding in some areas and unusual droughts
in other areas.
• The tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea warm
pool has been expanding resulting in:
– more frequent category 4 and 5 hurricanes resulting
in mechanical damage to coral reefs and coastal
erosion;
– extensive coral bleaching and mortality.
ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY
• Taken separately and collectively, these natural and
anthropogenic factors are serious impediments to any
effort at sustainable development and the attainment of
the millennium development goals (MDG).
• As an example, Grenada an island of population 90,000
is still recovering from hurricane Ivan of 2004. Damage
from the hurricane has set back the country by
decades.
• The total damage was estimated at over US$1 billion
compared to its GDP of US$440 million.
• Hurricane damage in 2004 for the greater Caribbean
was in excess of US$4 billion.
• This yearly trend has continued through 2005, 2006,
2007 and 2008.
The consequences of global warming
and sea level rise in the Caribbean
• A warming climate and rising sea levels will pose
significant, and in some cases insurmountable
challenges to the region’s economic and social
vulnerability. It will certainly have a negative impact
on:
– Agriculture and Fisheries, hence on its food security
– Tourism, hence on its economic sustainability
– Health, through increases in vector-borne diseases
and other heat- related diseases
– Water quality and quantity
– Human Settlements, especially on the smaller
islands.
The consequences of global warming
and sea level rise in the Caribbean
cont’d
• A recent study has shown the potential
economic costs as a percentage of GDP to
Caribbean SIDS if no action is taken to
reduce the impacts of climate change:
– By 2025 the average cost to the region will
be 14% of its GDP increasing to 39% by
2050, 45% by 2075 and 63% by 2100.
THE END
MANY THANKS FOR LISTENING
More Information:
www.caricom.org
www.caribbeanclimate.bz