Transcript Building an Inclusive Rural Information Society

Climate Change:
Challenges for Innovation Studies
Govindan Parayil
Professor
Center for Technology, Innovation and Culture
University of Oslo, Norway
[email protected]
Environment and Development
Environment an afterthought of production
o Grow first and worry later
o Environmental costs were externalized
o A case of market failure
o Environmental pollution and regulation
o Environmental protection and wealth
o Environmental Kuznets Curve?
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Emissions per head
Income per capita
A hypothetical environmental Kuznets curve
Environment and Development
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These approaches can at best solve locallevel environmental problems
Smog, acid rain, effluent disposal etc.
Global warming too big and global problem
to be addressed by existing environmental
regulatory tools
Climate change can’t be solved as a simple
externality problem
Need global and local solutions
The Science of Climate Change
GHGs and global warming (the greenhouse
effect)
 Initial doubts about the validity of the theory
largely gone, but still some critics exist
 Global consensus among climate scientists
 How does the scientific enterprise work?
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The Earth is getting warmer on the average
°C
Green bars show 95%
confidence intervals
2005 was the hottest year on record;
the 13 hottest all occurred since 1990,
23 out of the 24 hottest since 1980.
Source: Holdren (2007) based on J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293
(26 Sept 2006)
Evidence for a human role: the last 1000 years
“Proxy” temperature reconstructions + 125-yr thermometer record
Source: Holdren (2007) based on National Research Council, 2006
Direction & rate of temperature change switched suddenly in 1800s
The human role: CO2 build-up for the last 250 years
tracks emissions from fossil fuels & deforestation
Fossil-fuel
contribution is
confirmed by
reduced C-14
fraction in
atmospheric
CO2.
Fossil fuels
provide 80% of
civilization’s
energy today.
Source: Holdren (2007)
Climate Change
Doubling of pre-industrial levels of GHGs is
likely to raise 2 – 5 degrees of global mean
temperature during this century.
 The “Hockey Stick” Debate
 The effects of global warming are already being
felt
 Warming is intensifying the water cycle,
reinforcing existing patterns of water scarcity
and increasing the risks of droughts and floods
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The next 100 years compared to the last 400
(Source: Holden, 2007)
Colored lines pre-2000 are proxy-based T
reconstructions by different groups.
Gray band 2000-2100 shows range of
scenarios for future developed by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Continuation of recent trends (middle of
band) leads by 2100 to temperatures not
reached since the Eocene (25-35 million
years ago), when sea level was 20-30 m
higher.
Climate Change
As the world warms, the risk of abrupt and largescale changes in the climate will rise
 IPCC and other scientific bodies such as national
academies of sciences are unanimous in their stand
on climate change due to GHGs
 The body of evidence and the growing quantitative
assessment of risks pose clear challenges to
economics and innovation studies to come up with
solutions
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The Ethics and Economics of Climate
Change
Climate change is the result of the externality
associated with GHGs emissions.
 A case of market failure, according to
economists.
 The costs associated with climate change are
not paid by those who create the emissions. It is
being borne by others, especially those who did
not partake in the growth and wealth.
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The Ethics and Economics of Climate
Change
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A tragedy of the commons
On a global scale
It is global in its causes and consequences
The impacts of climate change are long-term
and persistent
Most GHGs until recently were created by the
wealthy industrialized societies
So who should bear the responsibility for
mitigating climate change?
The Ethics and Economics of Climate
Change
Most of the adverse effects of climate change
will be felt in poor and vulnerable societies
 Eventually it will affect the rich, although they
are better prepared to adapt in the short-term
 There is also the question of inter and intragenerational equity
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Implications of climate change for
development
While all nations will eventually feel the adverse
effects of climate change, it will pose the most
serious threat to developing countries.
 The effect will be felt most seriously by the
most vulnerable sections within developing
countries who are at the margins of society
 Most people in developing countries are
dependent on subsistence agriculture while the
rest live on livelihoods within the informal
sector
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Implications of climate change for
development
Floods and water shortages, vector-borne
diseases, droughts,
Those who live on coastlines and shanties are also
affected
Climate change poses long-term sustainability of
the development process
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) will not
be met
In Sep 2000, 189 countries signed the UN
Millennium Declaration, an international blueprint
for poverty reduction with a target date of 2015:
Millennium Development Goals
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Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Achieve universal primary education
Empower women and promote equality among
men and women
Reduce under five morality by two-thirds
Reduce maternal morality by three-quarters
Reverse the spread of aids, especially HIV/AIDS
and malaria
Ensure environmental sustainability
Create global partnership for development, with
targets for aid, trade and debt relief
Impacts of climate change on developing
regions: South Asia:
India: Crucial annual monsoons could be affected
(threat to food security and drinking water);
extreme climates lead to droughts and flooding.
 Melting of Himalayan glaciers could affect the
survival of several great rivers affecting the whole
region, including China
 Similar effects in Bangladesh, particularly floods
and storms
 Hundreds of millions could be pushed into
poverty, negating the gains made against poverty
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Impacts of climate change on developing
regions
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Sub-Saharan Africa:
More desertification and water shortages
Hundreds of millions will be pushed into
hunger
Middle East and North Africa
Further shortage of water
Possibilities of intensifying conflicts over water
resources
Global population movements due to
environmental catastrophes
The geography of water stress
UNDP Human Development Report 2006
What to do?
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Adaptation: measures to reduce the adverse impacts
on human well-being resulting from the changes in
climate that do occur.
Examples: changing consumption and agricultural practices,
strengthening defenses against climate-related disease, and
building more dams and dikes.
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Mitigation: measures to reduce the pace & magnitude
of the changes in global climate being caused by human
activities.
Examples: reducing emissions of GHG, enhancing “sinks” for
these gases, “geoengineering” to counteract the warming effects
of GHG, new technologies.
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Suffer (BAU)
Adaptation in the Developing World
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Poverty and developmental constraints will
present obstacles to adaptation, but focused
developmental policies can make some dent in the
impact of climate change
Promote growth and diversification of economic
activity
Enhancing resilience to disasters and improving
disaster management
Investment in flood prevention, irrigation, water
preservation
Investing in health and education
Investing in adaptation through:
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Human capital (investing in health and education)
Social capital (Bring civil society in the
development process - good governance)
Physical capital (infrastructure)
Natural capital (protection of rain forests and
mangroves)
Technology transfer and diffusion
Harnessing Markets & Institutions for
Adaptation
Taxes to be imposed on emitters to offset the full
social cost of their emissions (establishing carbon
prices to reflect the damage caused by GHG
emissions)
 Quantity restrictions can limit the volume of
emissions (using command and control approach)
 Full set of property rights to be established
(carbon trading)
 Kyoto Protocol (CDM)
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Harnessing Markets & Institutions
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Cap and trade
Creating a global price for carbon
Transition to a low carbon and zero emission
economy
Global compact for technological innovation
(development, transfer and diffusion)
Technological innovation (Sustainable
Innovation)
Thank you!