Transcript Scenari_Uncert_Impac.. - The Global Change Program at the

SCENARIOS
Primary Driving Forces of GHG Emissions
• Demographic Change
• Social and Economic Development
• Rate and Direction of Technological Change
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
What are scenarios? Why use them?
• neither predictions nor forecasts
• alternative images of how the future might unfold
• an appropriate tool with which to analyze how
driving forces may influence future emission
outcomes and to assess the associated
uncertainties
• IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
Scenario Nomenclature
• Storyline: coherent narrative that describes a demographic, social,
economic, technological, environmental, and policy future
• All interpretations and quantifications of one storyline together
are called a scenario family.
• Each scenario family includes a storyline and a number of
alternative interpretations and quantifications of each storyline to
explore variations of global and regional developments and their
implications for GHG and sulfur emissions.
• Storylines were formulated in a process that identified driving
forces, key uncertainties, possible scenario families, and their logic.
• Within each family different scenarios
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
The SRES scenarios and their
implications for atmospheric
composition, climate, and sea level
Date
Global
Population
(billions)a
Global
Per Capita
GDP
Income
12
b
(10 US$/yr)
Ratioc
GroundLevel O3
(ppbv) d
CO2
(ppmv) e
1990
5.3
21
16.1
--354
2000
6.1 – 6.2
5 – 28
12.3 – 14.2
40
367
2050
8.4 – 11.3
59 – 187
2.4 – 8.2
~60
463 – 623
2100
7.0 – 15.1
197 - 550
1.4 – 6.3
>70
478 - 1099
Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001
Global
Temperature
Change (C)f
Global
Sea-Level
Rise (cm)g
0
0.2
0.8 – 2.6
1.4 – 5.8
0
2
5 – 32
9 - 88
A1 Storyline and Scenario Family
A world with:
• very rapid economic growth
• low population growth
• rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies
Major Underlying Themes:




convergence among regions
capacity building
increased cultural and social interactions
substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income
Alternative directions of technological change
 A1FI - high coal and high oil and gas
 A1B - balanced (even distribution among options)
 A1T - predominantly non-fossil fuel
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
A2 Storyline and Scenario Family
A highly heterogeneous world with:
 high population growth (due to slow convergence of fertility
patterns across regions)
 regionally-oriented economic development
 per capita economic growth more fragmented/slower
 technological change more fragmented/slower
Major underlying themes:
 self reliance
 preservation of local identities
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
B1 Storyline and Scenario Family
A convergent world with:
• rapid changes in economic structures toward a service and
information economy
• low population growth (same as A1)
• reductions in material intensity
introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies
Major Underlying Themes:
 global solutions to economic, social, and environmental
sustainability (without additional climate initiatives
 improved equity
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
B2 Storyline and Scenario Family
A world with:
•
•
•
•
intermediate levels of economic development
moderate population growth
reductions in material intensity
less rapid and more diverse technological change
Major Underlying Themes:
 local solutions to economic, social, and environmental
sustainability (without additional climate initiatives
 social equity (with local/regional focus)
 environmental protection (with local/regional focus)
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Qualitative directions of SRES scenarios for different indicators.
Climate Change 2001 Mitigation Technical Summary
Historic oil emissions
Historic gas emissions
Historic coal emissions
Unconventional reserves
and resources
Conventional resources
(upper estimate)
Conventional reserves
Scenarios
Carbon in oil, gas and coal reserves and resources compared with historic fossil fuel
carbon emissions 1860-1998, and with cumulative carbon emissions from a range of
SRES scenarios and TAR stabilization scenarios up until 2100.
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; IPCC 2001
Global primary energy structure, shares (%) of oil, gas, coil, and non-fossil (zero-carbon)
energy sources - historical development from 1850 to 1990 and in SRES scenarios.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global anthropogenic SO2 emissions (MtS/yr) - historical development from 1930 to
1990 and (standardized) in the SRES scenarios.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Total global annual CO2 emissions from all sources (energy, industry, and land-use
change) from 1990 to 2100 (GtC/yr) for the 4 scenario families and 6 scenario groups.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Standardized (to common 1990 and 2000 values) global annual CH4 emissions for
the SRES scenarios (MtCH4/yr).
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Histogram of Total global cumulative CO2 emissions (GtC) from 1990 to 2100 distribution
by scenario group.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions related to land-use change from 1900 to 1990, and for the 40 SRES
scenarios from 1990 to 2100, shown as an index (1990 = 1).
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions related to energy and industry from 1900 to 1990, and for the 40 SRES
scenarios from 1990 to 2100, shown as an index (1990 = 1).
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global land-use patterns, shares (%) of croplands and energy biomass, forests, and other
categories including grasslands – historical development from 1970 to 1990 (based on B1IMAGE) and in SRES scenarios.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions (standardized) across SRES scenarios in relation to global
population in 2100 for the 4 scenario families and 6 scenario groups.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions (standardized) across SRES scenarios in relation to gross world
product in 2100 for the 4 scenario families and 6 scenario groups.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
UNCERTAINTIES
Uncertainties and Scenario Analysis
Types of uncertainty:
•
uncertainty in quantities
•
uncertainty about model structure
•
uncertainties that arise from disagreements among experts about the
value of quantities or the functional form of the model
Primary Sources of uncertainty:
•
Data uncertainties arise from the quality or appropriateness of the data
used as inputs to models.
•
Modeling uncertainties arise from an incomplete understanding of the
modeled phenomena, or from approximations that are used in formal
representation of the processes.
•
Completeness uncertainties refer to all omissions due to lack of
knowledge. They are, in principle, non-quantifiable and irreducible.
IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios
Sources of Scenario Uncertainties
• Choice of storylines
• Authors’ interpretation of storylines
• Translation of the understanding of linkages
between driving forces into quantitative
inputs for scenario analysis
• Methodological differences
• Different sources of data
• Inherent uncertainties
The cascade of uncertainties in projections to be considered in developing climate and related
scenarios for climate change impact, adaptation, and mitigation assessment.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis; IPCC 2001
The development of climate models over the last 25 years
showing how the different components are first developed
separately and later coupled into comprehensive climate
models.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis; IPCC 2001
Assessment of the credibility of projections of climate
change provided by general circulation models (GCMs)
indicates that the following processes and feedbacks
requiring sustained research include:
• Cloud-radiation-water vapor interactions, including treatment of
solar and IR radiation in clear and cloudy skies
• Ocean circulation and overturning
• Aerosol forcing
• Decadal to centennial variability
• Land-surface processes
• Short-term variability affecting the frequency and intensity of
extreme and high impact events (e.g., monsoons, hurricanes, storm
systems)
• Interactions between chemistry and climate change and improved
Global Environmental Change:Research Pathways for the Next Decade; NRC 1999
IMPACTS
Exampl es of impacts resulting fro m proje cted changes in extreme climate events: Simple Extremes
Proj ected C hanges during the
21st Century in Extreme Climate
Phenomena and their Likelihooda
Representative Exampl es of Proje cted Impactsb
(all high confid ence of occurre nce in some areasc)
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Increased in cidence of death & serious illness in older age gro ups & urban poor
Increased heat stress in livestock and wildl ife
Shift in tourist destinations
Increased risk of damage to a numb er of cro ps
Increased electric cooling demand and reduced energy supply reliability
Higher (increasing) minim um
Decreased co ld-related human morbidi ty and morta lity
temperatures; fewer cold days, fro st
Decreased r isk of damage to a numb er of cro ps and increased risk to others
days, and cold wave sd over nearly all
Extended range and activity of some pest and disease vectors
a
land areas (Very Likely )
Reduced heating energy demand
Increased flood, landslide, avalanche, and mudslide damag e
More intense precipitation events
Increased soil erosion
(Very Likelya over many areas)
Increased flood runoff could increase recharg e of some floodplain aquif ers
Increased pressure on government, private flood insurance systems, and
disaster relief
a
Likelihood refers to judg me ntal estima tes of con fidence used by TAR WGI: ve ry li kely (90-99% chance ); li kely (66-90% chanc e).
Unless otherw is e stated, information on c lim ate pheno mena is taken from the Summary for Poli cymakers, TAR WGI.
b
The se im pacts can be lessened by appropriate response measures.
c
Based on info rmation from chap ters in this report; high conf idenc e refers to probabiliti es between 67 and 95% as described in
Footnote 6 of TAR WGII, Summ ary for Poli cymakers.
d
Informa tion from TAR WGI, Techn ical Summ ary, Section F.5.
e
Change s in regional d istribution of tropical cyclones are possible but have not been establi shed .
Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001
Higher maximum temperatures;
more hot days and heat wave sd over
nearly all land areas (Very Likelya)
Climate change adaptation issues in Nort h American subregions
North American
Subregions
Development Context
Climate Change Adaptation Options and
Challenges
Most or all subregions  Changing commodity markets
 Role of water/environmental markets
 Intensive water resources development over  Changing design and operations of wa ter and
large areas—domestic and transboundary
energy systems
 Lengthy entitlement/l and claim/treaty
 New technology/practices in agriculture and
agre ements—domestic and transboundary
forestry
 Urban expa nsion
 Prot ection of threatened ecosystems or
 Transporta tion expa nsion
adaptation to new landscapes
 Increased role for summer (war m weather)
tourism
 Risks to wa ter quality fro m extreme events
 Managing commu nity health for chang ing risk
factors
 Changing roles of publi c emergency assistance
and private insurance
Arc tic border
 Winter transport system
 Design for c hanging permafros t and ice
 Indi genous lifestyles
condi tions
 Role of two economies and co-management
bodies
Coa stal regions
 Declines in some commercial mar ine
 Aquaculture, habitat prot ection, fleet
resource s (cod, salmon)
reductions
 Intensive coastal zone development
 Coa stal zone planni ng in high demand areas
Great Lakes
 Sensitivity to lake level fluctuations
 Managing for reduction in mean levels without
increased shore line encroachment
Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001
Impacts of or risks from climate change,
by reason for concern
no or virtually neutral impact or risk
somewhat negative impacts or low risks
more negative impacts or higher risks
Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001
Exa mpl es of impacts resulting fro m proje cted changes in extreme climate events: Complex Extremes
Proj ected C hanges during the
21st Century in Extreme Climate
Phenomena and their Likelihooda
Representative Exa mpl es of Proje cted Impactsb
(all high confid ence of occurre nce in some areasc)





Decreased cro p yields
Increased damage to buil ding found ations caused by gro und shrinkage
Decreased wa ter resource quantity and quality
Increased risk of forest fire
Increased risks to hum an life, risk of infectious disease epidemics, and many
Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind
other risks
intensities, mean and peak precipitation  Increased coastal eros ion and damage to coastal buildin gs and infrastructure
intensities (Likelya over many areas)e
 Increased damage to coastal ecosystems such as coral re efs and mangrove s
Intensified droughts and floods
 Decreased agr icultural and rangeland productivity in drought- and flood-prone
associated with El Niño events in many
regions
a
different regions (Likely )
 Decreased hydro-powe r potential in droug ht-prone regions
Increased Asian summer monsoon
 Increased flood and drought mag nitude and damag es in temperate and tropical
precipit ation variability (Likelya)
Asia
Increased in tensity of mid-l atitud e
 Increased risks to hum an life and health
storms (little agreement between current  Increased property and infras tructure losses
models)d
 Increased damage to coastal ecosystems
a
Likelihood refers to judg me ntal estima tes of con fidence used by TAR WGI: ve ry li kely (90-99% chance ); li kely (66-90% chanc e).
Unless otherw is e stated, information on c lim ate pheno mena is taken from the Summary for Poli cymakers, TAR WGI.
b
The se im pacts can be lessened by appropriate response measures.
c
Based on info rmation from chap ters in this report; high conf idenc e refers to probabiliti es between 67 and 95% as described in
Footnote 6 of TAR WGII, Summ ary for Poli cymakers.
d
Informa tion from TAR WGI, Techn ical Summ ary, Section F.5.
e
Change s in regional d istribution of tropical cyclones are possible but have not been establi shed .
Technical Summary Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability; IPCC 2001
Increased summer drying over most
mid-latitude continental interiors and
associated risk of drought (Likelya)
”Spillovers” from domestic mitigation strategies are the effects that
these strategies have on other countries. Spillover effects can be
positive or negative and include, e.g., effects on trade, carbon leakage,
transfer and diffusion of environmentally sound technology.
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; IPCC 2001
BUSH
RESPONSE
2002
The Clear Skies Initiative - Climate Impacts
Cuts SO2 emissions by 73% (direct and indirect
forcing)
2002 emissions:
2010 emissions:
2018 emissions:
11 million tons
4.5 million tons
3 million tons
Cuts NOx emissions by 67% (indirect forcing)
2002 emissions:
2008 emissions:
2018 emissions:
5 million tons
2.1 million tons
1.7 million tons
EPA Newsroom February 14, 2002, President Bush Announcement
Global Climate Change Initiative
Cut greenhouse gas intensity by 18% by 2012
GHG intensity: the ratio of GHG emissions to economic output
2002 GHG intensity:
2010 GHG intensity:
183 metric tons / million $ GDP
151 metric tons / million $ GDP
Improve GHG registry
enhance measurement accuracy, reliability and verifiability
consider emerging domestic and international approaches
Protect & provide transferable credit for emission reductions
to encourage voluntary reductions registration
to give credit to companies that can show real emissions reductions
EPA Newsroom February 14, 2002, President Bush Announcement
Global Climate Change Initiative, cont’d.
Review progress on climate change/take additional action if needed
in 2012
Enhanced funding for climate change-related programs
FY 2003: 4.5 B$ for global climate change-related activities (700 M$ inc.)
New and expanded domestic and international policies
expanded research & development of climate-related science &
technology
expanded use of renewable energy
business sector challenges
improvements in the transportation sector
incentives for sequestration
enhanced support for climate observation & mitigation in the
developing world
EPA Newsroom February 14, 2002, President Bush Announcement
How can science and technology contribute most
effectively to meeting societal environmental goals?
Recommendations
• Use social science and risk assessment to make better societal
choices
• Focus on monitoring to build better understanding of our
ecological systems
• Reduce the adverse impacts of chemicals in the environment
• Develop environmental options for the energy system
• Use a systems engineering and ecological approach to reduce
resource use
• Improve understanding of the relationship between population and
consumption as a means to reducing the environmental impacts of
population growth
• Set environmental goals via rates and directions of change
NRC, Linking Science and Technology to Society’s Environmental Goals, 1996
CARBON
SEQUESTRATION
Biological Pump
Ocean Carbon Storage
Direct Injection of CO2 into the mid-water column seeks to short circuit the natural
delivery of CO2 into the deep sea and minimize environmental impacts by avoiding the
biologically rich upper 1000 m.
Criteria for biological
carbon mitigation options
• potential contributions to C pools over time
• sustainability, security, resilience, permanence, and robustness of
the C pool maintained or created
• compatibility with other land-use objectives
• leakage and additionality issues
• economic costs
• environmental impacts other than climate mitigation
• social, cultural, and cross-cutting issues, as well as issues of equity
• the system-wide effects on C flows in the energy and materials
sector
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; IPCC 2001
Land Use Issues
Land use change and forestry issues are important to national
and global inventories of greenhouse gases:
 Vegetation can “sequester” or remove CO2 from the atmosphere and
store it for potentially long periods in above- and below-ground biomass
and in soils.
 soils, trees, crops, and other plants may make significant contributions
to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by serving as C “sinks”
 humans can alter the biosphere through changes in land use and forest
management practices
--> alter the quantities of atmospheric and terrestrial C stocks
--> alter the natural C flux among biomass, soils, & the atmosphere
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Summary for Policymakers; IPCC 2001
Timescales for Recovery
100 yrs
as uncut forest
uncut forest cut or burn
farmed 2-3 yrs)
Timescales are such that it
takes 100’s of years
for a forest to regenerate
if biomass is bulldozed
away the forest may never
regenerate
2 yrs
pioneers
emerge
15 yrs
primaries
emerge
Technological opt ions
Land- use change and f orestry:
 There are three fundamental ways in which
land use or management can mitigate
atmospheric CO2 increases:
Protection, sequestration , and substitutiona
These options show different temporal patterns;
consequently, the choice of options and their
potential effectiveness depend on the target time
frame as well as on site productivity and
disturbance history. The SAR estimated that
globally these measures could reduce atmospheric
C by about 83 to 131GtC by 2050 (60 to 87GtC in
forests and 23 to 44GtC in agricultural soils).
Studies published since then have not substantially
revised these estimates. The costs of terrestrial
manageme nt practices are quite low compared to
alternatives, and range from 0 ( 'win- win'
opportunities) to US$ 12/ tC.
Barriers and opp ortunities
Barriers: to mitigation in land- use change and
forestry include lack of funding and of human and
institutional capacity to monitor and verify, social
constraints such as food supply, people living off
the natural forest, incentives for land clearing,
population pressure, and switch to pastures because
of demand for me at. In tropical countries, forestry
activities are often dominated by the state forest
departme nts with a minimal role for local
communities and the private sector. In some parts
of the tropical world, particularly Africa, low crop
productivity and competing demands on forests for
crop production and fuelwood are likely to reduce
mitigation opportunities.
Opportunities: in land use and forestry, incentives
and policies are required to realize the technical
potential. There may be in the form o f government
regulations, taxes, and subsidies, or through
economic incentives in the form of market
payments for capturing and holding carbon as
suggested in the Kyoto Protocol, depending on its
imp lementation following decisions by CoP.
Implications of mitigation policies on sectors
GHG mi tigation policies can have a large effect on
land use, especially through carbon sequestration
and biofuel production. In tropical countries, largescale adoption of mi tigation activities could lead to
biodiversity conservation, rural employment
generation and watershed protection contributing to
sustainable development. To achieve this,
institutional changes to involve local commu nities
and industry and necessary thereby leading to a
reduced role for governments in managing forests.
ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPACTS
OF FUEL USE
Ecosystem impacts: coal

Strip mining - land degradation

Transport - energy use and emissions (CO2, hydrocarbons
soot, NOx, SO2)

Use as heat fuel or as fuel for electricity - emissions (CO2,
hydrocarbons, soot, NOx, SO2)
Ecosystem impacts: oil

Oil rig installation/drilling - land /water degradation, spills

Transport: pipeline installation, ship tankers, trucks - land
degradataion, energy use and emissions (CO2,
hydrocarbons soot, NOx, SO2)

Refineries and use as heat fuel - land degradataion, energy
use and emissions (CO2, hydrocarbons soot, NOx,
SO2)
CLEANLINESS OF FUELS
Emissions associated with production
and/or saving of 1000 MW of Electricity
Method
Coal
Nuclear
Hydroelectric
Wind
Tidal
Loft Insulation
Low-energy lighting
CO2 tonnes annually
5,912,000
230,000
78,000
54,000
52,000
24,000
12,000
The challenge: use far less energy, produced by
means of the least polluting method, to meet our
needs.
 At home: use energy-saving lighting and household goods, solar panels for heating
water, insulation, double and triple glazing of windows, electronic heating controls,
building design for solar heating of space
 Factories, offices, and other workplaces: combined heating and power-generation
systems recycle waste heat, thus saving fuel.
 Transportation: town planning can reduce people’s need to travel long distances to
work, shopping, etc.; carefully planned transport systems that make better use of
efficeint train, trolley, and bus networks; fuel-efficient cars, carpooling, and parkand-ride plans
Passenger Cars
Light Trucks
air pollution
water
Environmental Impacts of
Coal Power
wastes generated
Union of Concerned Scientists 2001
fuel supply
MISC.
NRC, Global Environmental Change, 1999
Global average annual precipitation
Major biomes found along the 39th parallel crossing the United States.
The differences mostly reflect changes in climate, primarily differences in
average annual temperature and precipitation.
Climate determines the types and amounts of natural vegetation that are
found in undisturbed areas.
Variations in atmospheric CO2
on different time-scales.
(a) Direct measurements of atmospheric CO2.
(b) CO2 concentration in Antarctic ice cores for
the past millenium. Recent atmospheric
measurements(Mauna Loa) are shown for
comparison.
(c) CO2 concentration in the Taylor Dome
Antarctic ice core.
(d) CO2 concentration in the Vostok Antarctic
ice core. (Different colours represent
results from different studies.)
(e, f) Geochemically inferred CO2
concentrations. (Coloured bars and lines
represent different published studies)
(g) Annual atmospheric increases in CO2.
Monthly atmospheric increases have been
filtered to remove the seasonal cycle.
Vertical arrows denote El Niño events. A
horizontal line defines the extended El Niño
of 1991 to 1994.
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis; IPCC 2001
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; IPCC 2001
World primary energy use and CO2
emissions by region (1971 - 1998)
A
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; IPCC 2001
The Harrapan Desert
Perhaps the best known example of the pathology of
forest loss is Harrapan in Western Pakistan:
•
The region was once abundantly forested and enjoyed an adequate
rainfall during the monsoon season. It was a fine example of a self
sustaining forest ecosystem.
• The forest was gradually cleared by peasant farmers who kept cattle and
goats that grazed on the scrub grass that replaced the forest trees.
• The rainfall was sustained over the region until rather more than half of
the forests had been cleared. But after that the region became arid and
the remaining forest decayed.
• The region is now so dry that as a semi-desert it can support only a
fraction of the people and other organisms that once were there.
Cumulative carbon emissions,
1950-1996
15,715
C hina
11,651
Germa ny
8,504
Ja pa n
7,415
Unite d Kin gdom
India
4,235
C ana da
4,054
2,331
So uth Africa
Me xico
2,118
Aus tralia
2,080
1,557
Braz il
1,361
Kore a, Rep.
966
Indone s ia
50,795
Unite d S tate s
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
Millio n to ns o f carbo n
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
50,000
60,000
Per capita emissions of carbon
from
industrial sources, 1996
4.63
Aus tralia
2.91
Rus s ian Fe de ratio n
2.87
Germ any
2.59
Unite d Kingdom
2.54
J apan
2.46
Ko re a, Rep.
2.10
Ukra ine
1.88
So uth Africa
1.02
Mex ico
0.76
C hina
0.46
Braz il
Indon es ia
0.33
India
0.29
5.37
Unite d State s
0
1
2
3
Thous and tons of carbon
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
4
5
6
20
United States
15
Canada
12
Russian Federation
10
Germany
United Kingdom
9
Japan
9
Poland, Rep
9
Per capita CO2
emissions are
small in
developing
countries
8
8
Ukraine
Korea, Rep
South Africa
7
Italy
7
6
France
4
Mexico
3
China
1
India
13
Developed Countries
0
5
10
15
20
(metric tons of carbon dioxide)
25
Estimated sea level rise from 1910 to 1990.
(a) The thermal expansion, glacier and ice cap,
Greenland and Antarctic contributions
resulting from climate change in the 20th
century calculated from a range of
AOGCMs. Note that uncertainties in land
ice calculations have not been included.
(b) The mid-range and upper and lower
bounds for the computed response of sea
level to climate change (the sum of the
terms in (a) plus the contribution from
permafrost). These curves represent our
estimate of the impact of anthropogenic
climate change on sea level during the 20th
century.
(c) The mid-range and upper and lower
bounds for the computed sea level change
(the sum of all terms in (a) with the
addition of changes in permafrost, the
effect of sediment deposition, the longterm adjustment of the ice-sheets to past
climate change and the terrestrial storage
terms).
Historic oil emissions
Historic gas emissions
Historic coal emissions
Unconventional reserves
and resources
Conventional resources
(upper estimate)
Conventional reserves
Scenarios
Carbon in oil, gas and coal reserves and resources compared with historic fossil fuel
carbon emissions 1860-1998, and with cumulative carbon emissions from a range of
SRES scenarios and TAR stabilization scenarios up until 2100.
Climate Change 2001: Mitigation; IPCC 2001
Global primary energy structure, shares (%) of oil, gas, coil, and non-fossil (zero-carbon)
energy sources - historical development from 1850 to 1990 and in SRES scenarios.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions (standardized) across SRES scenarios in relation to global
population in 2100 for the 4 scenario families and 6 scenario groups.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global anthropogenic SO2 emissions (MtS/yr) - historical development from 1930 to
1990 and (standardized) in the SRES scenarios.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Standardized (to common 1990 and 2000 values) global annual CH4 emissions for
the SRES scenarios (MtCH4/yr).
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions related to land-use change from 1900 to 1990, and for the 40 SRES
scenarios from 1990 to 2100, shown as an index (1990 = 1).
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Global CO2 emissions related to energy and industry from 1900 to 1990, and for the 40 SRES
scenarios from 1990 to 2100, shown as an index (1990 = 1).
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
Estimated rates of sea level rise components from observations and
models averaged over the period 1910 to 1990.
Thermal expansion
Glaciers and ice caps
Greenland Р 20th century effects
Antarctica Р 20th century effects
Ice sheets Р adjustment since LGM
Permafrost
Sediment deposition
Terrestrial storage (not directly from climate change)
Total
Estimated from observations
Minimum
(mm/yr)
Central Value
(mm/yr)
Maximum
(mm/yr)
0.3
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.00
0.00
-1.1
-0.8
1.0
0.5
0.3
0.05
-0.1
0.25
0.025
0.025
-0.35
0.7
1.5
0.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.05
0.05
0.4
2.2
2.0
20th century effects: Greenland - changes in precipitation and runoff ; Antarctica - increased precipitation
Ranges of uncertainty for the average
rate of sea level rise from 1910 to 1990
and the estimated contributions from
different processes.
Total global annual CO2 emissions from all sources (energy, industry, and land-use
change) from 1990 to 2100 (GtC/yr) for the 4 scenario families and 6 scenario groups.
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios