Transcript Global climate modeling

Climate Connection
Lifestyles and Scenarios
How do our choices today, affect our world’s tomorrow
?
Predicting our Climate Future
Human
Activities and
Lifestyles
GHG
Emissions
Climate
Change Model
Social Science Oriented
• Social influences
• Human behavior
• Affluence
• Diet/food,
• geography influences
• Political aspects
• Isolation/globalization
• Economic drivers
• Environmental regulations
• Technology and its implementation
• Energy efficiency
• Alternative energy sources
Predicted
climate changes
(Precipitation, Temp.
etc.)
Earth Science Oriented
• Physics
• Chemistry
• Earth, Ocean & Atmospheric processes
Emission scenarios
• Need to define GHG emission “scenarios” to
project what our lives and activities will be for
the next century.
– What are the possible economic scenarios?
– What changes will we have in our society?
• How do these changes influence emissions?
IPCC SRES
• Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
• Developed “stories” that would define the
range of possible social systems that we may
develop through the 21st century
– Economic growth
– Population growth
– Technology development and adoption
– Commitment to the environment
– Globalization
Personal Choice Game Sheet
Who are YOU? What will your future be?
DRECTIONS: You have made some choices about the lifestyle you are leading. In the spaces below, fill in your choices.
Once you have done that, use the Choice Points sheet to determine your overall Choice Points score.
Your
Choice
Lifestyle Element
Point Value
Your Character
Choice
Point Value
Home (s)
Autos/Vehicles(s)
Entertainment
Clothing
Food
Vacation(s)
Laws & Regulations
Total Point Value
1
Personal Choice Options
2 3
4
Home (s)
Trailer or smaller.
Apartment
Medium sized house.
Mansion 5,000 sq.ft.
Autos/Vehicles
Walk/Bicycle/ Public
Transportation
Hybrid- Toyota Prius
Full size pick- up truck
luxury SUV
Entertainment
Board games
Large Screen TV
Hot tub
Jet ski and 4-wheeler
Clothing
Thrift store
Fair Trade/Union
Made
MegaMart/Mall
Gucci/ Brooks
Brothers
Food
Self-sufficient
(garden, farm, hunt,
fish)
Fair trade
Locally grown
Industrial
Agribusiness
Premium and
Expensive
Vacation(s)
None
Camping
Laws &
Regulations
Int’l cooperation and
monitoring
Regional air and
water pollution regs.
Cheap international
trips
Limited regs. for
regional development
Disney World
No regulations
•Modeling future temperature changes: (Chief Meteorologist)(Cultural Liaison)
Use the information collected in this project to determine the most likely emission scenario for yourself and your
character. Assuming that most people in the world live with these attributes, use global circulation model results to
estimate what our global temperatures will be in the year 2100.
1.Define the greenhouse gas emission scenario for you and your Liaison.
a.Using the Personal Choice selections you identified for yourself and your character (parts 1 and 2),
use the scoring sheet provided <link> to estimate a personal choice score. Enter the score on your
game sheet and in the table below.
b.Review the SRES scenario table and lengthier descriptions to categorize yourself and your character
in terms of SRES scenario (A2(high), A1B (moderate), B1(low)) and level of emissions (low, medium
or high)
2.Estimate the change in the regional and average global temperature anomalies (January and July) for your
scenario and your Liaison’s.
a.Review the temperature change contour maps to interpret possible temperature changes and record in
the table above.
You or Your Group
Your Character
Name
Quinn Sherwood
Click here to enter text.
Location
20 Hunters run
Click here to enter text.
Personal Choice score
10
Click here to enter text.
SRES scenario
Click here to enter text.
Click here to enter text.
Level of Emissions
Click here to enter text.
Click here to enter text.
Temperature change by
2100 (°C)
Click here to enter text.
Click here to enter text.
4
3
1
2
Total
Points
≥25
19-24
10-18
<10
Scenario Characteristics
Global, Economically Oriented – Fossil intensive (A1 =#4)
 Population growth and decline
 Technological advances applied globally – bias
towards further development of fossil fuels
 Equity in economic development among regions
Statistics for 2100
o
o
o
o
o
7 billion population
$550 trillion GDP
970 ppm CO2
3.5-+6 Deg. C Temp Rise
HIGH emissions scenario
Regional, Economically oriented (A2=#3)
 Population growth
o
 Differences among regions - Technological advances, o
o
resource consumption and culture
o
15 billion population
$250 trillion GDP
3-5 Deg. C Temp Rise
HIGH emissions scenario
Regional, Environmentally oriented (B2=#2)
 local solutions to economic, social, and
environmental sustainability
 economic equity within regions, but not between
regions
 less rapid and more diverse technological changes
 global policies for climate change mitigation
Global, Environmentally oriented (B1=#1)
 global solutions to economic, social, and
environmental sustainability
 no additional climate initiatives
 service and information oriented economy
 reductions in material intensity
 clean and resource-efficient technologies
o
o
o
o
10 billion population,
$250 trillion GDP
2-4 Deg. C Temp Rise
MEDIUM emissions scenario
o
o
o
o
7 billion population
$350 trillion GDP
1.2-3Deg. C Temp Rise
LOW emissions scenario
CO2Emissions profiles for IPCC scenarios
Model predictions
350.org
IPCC Data
• Visualization of IPCC climate model results
– http://www.ipcc-data.org/maps/