Transcript No Slide Title - Growth

LCR Team
Gas Emissions and the Effects on Global Climate
Change, Ozone Depletion and Air Pollution
Robert T. Watson
Chief Scientist & Director, ESSD. World Bank
and
Chair, IPCC
November 30, 2000 - 1:00 p.m. - MC2-850
The Challenge of Sustainable Development
• alleviate poverty for the 1.3 billion people who live on less than $1
per day and the 3 billion people who live on less than $2 per day
• provide adequate food, especially for the 800 million people who are
malnourished today, thus requiring food production to double in the
next 35 years
• provide clean water for the 1.3 billion people who live without clean
water and provide sanitation for the 2 billion people who live without
sanitation
• provide energy for the 2 billion people who live without electricity
• improve a healthy environment for the 1.4 billion people who are
exposed to dangerous levels of outdoor pollution and the even larger
number exposed to dangerous levels of indoor air pollution
• provide safe shelter for those that live in areas susceptible to civil
strife due to environmental degradation and those vulnerable to
natural disasters
State of the Environment
• Air quality is unacceptable in many developing country
mega cities, resulting in respiratory illnesses and
premature death
• Acid deposition remains a problem in many developing
countries, adversely affecting ecological systems
• The Earth’s climate is changing due to human activities,
threatening socio-economic sectors, ecological systems
and human health
• Stratospheric ozone depletion, which leads to increased
UV-B and adverse health affects, has peaked, but
recovery will take at least 50 years
• Biological diversity at the genetic, species and
ecosystem level is being lost at an unprecedented rate,
threatening critical ecosystem goods and services
Linkages Among Food Production and
Global Environmental Issues
2
Linkages Among Environmental Issues
Air Quality
Sulfate Aerosols
Poverty is Multi-Dimensional
Dimensions of Poverty
Examples of Determinants
Income and
Consumption
Environmental Links
Natural Resource
Base
Access to markets
Opportunity
Health
Capability
Access to
water and toilets
Air quality
Education
Environmental awareness
Security
Empowerment
Vulnerability
Participation in
Decision-making
Ecological fragility
Natural shocks
Environmental governance
Underlying Causes of Change
• Increased demand for resources, e.g., biological and energy,
as a result of economic growth and population growth
• Subsidies that lead to inefficient use of resources (e.g., water)
• Failure to internalize environmental extranalities into the
market (e.g., health care costs into the price of coal)
• Failure of economic markets to recognize the true value of
natural resources (e.g., global goods and services)
• Failure to appropriate the global values of natural resources
to the local level
• Institutional and government failures to regulate or
implement the regulations of the use of biological resources
and energy (e.g., collapse of fisheries around the world)
• Inappropriate use of technologies (e.g., fossil energy)
• Failure of people to consider the long-term consequences of
their actions (change in human values)
Perverse Subsidies
Agricultural
Fossil fuels
Road transportation
Water
Fisheries
Forestry
Totals
Source: Myers, 1997
Annual Subsidies
US$ billion
575
145
917
233
22
6
Perverse Subsidies
US$ billion
460
110
639
219
22
6
1,898
1,456
Categories of Economic Values
Attributed to Environmental Assets
Total Economic Value
Use Values
Non-Use Values
Direct Use
Values
Indirect Use
Values
Options
Values
Existence
Values
Output that can
be consumed
directly
Functional
benefits
Future direct
and indirect
use values
Value from
knowledge of
continued existence
. Food
. Biomass
. Recreation
. Health
. Ecological
functions
. Flood control
. Storm protection.
. Biodiversity
. Converved
habitats
. Habitats
. Endangered
species
Decreasing “tangibility” of value to individuals
Other Non-Use
Values
Intrinsic Value
Atmospheric Ozone
Ozone Science, Assessments and Policy
How Have They Interacted?
Effect of the International Agreements on
Ozone-Depleting Stratospheric Chlorine/Bromine
TOMS and Groundbased Zonal Trends
1/79 to 12/97
Global Temperature Observations
Annual averages plus long-term trends, to July 1999
1.0
Change in temperature (°C)
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
–0.2
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
The Met.Office Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
1960
1980
2000
Precipitation Trends (%) per Decade
(1900-1994)
Green • = increasing
/ Brown
• = decreasing
Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane
Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times
Carbon dioxide: 33% rise
The MetOffice
Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research
Methane: 100% rise
Radiative Forcing
3
Halocarbons
N02O
2
CH4
Tropospheric
aerosols - direct effect
CO2
1
Fossil
fuel
soot
Sulphate
Solar
Biomass
burning
0
Stratospheric
ozone
Tropospheric
ozone
-1
Tropospheric aerosols
- indirect effect
-2
Confidence level
High
Low
Low
Low
Very
low
Very
low
Very
low
Very
low
95/868/2.16
Estimates of the globally and annually averaged anthropogenic radiative forcing (in Wm-2) due to changes
in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols from pre-industrial times to the present (1992) and to
natural changes in solar output from 1850 to the present.
Source: IPCC. Climate Change 1995 - The Science of Climate Change. WGI. 1996.
Schematic Illustration of SRES Scenarios
SRES Scenarios
Economic
A2
A1
Global
Regional
B1
B2
A
og
y
(La
Te c h n
ivin
ol
er g
nd
Dr
y
En
u lat i
on
ic ulture
gr
-use)
P
op
Eco nom
Environmental
y
e
g Forc
s
Scenarios
1990
2100
• Population (billion)
5.3
7.0 - 15.1
• World GDP (1012 1990US$/yr)
21
235 - 550
16.1
1.5 - 4.2
• Final energy intensity (106J/US$)a
16.7
1.4 - 5.9
• Primary energy (1018 J/US$)
351
514 - 2226
• Share of coal in primary energy (%)a
24
1 - 53
• Share of zero carbon in
primary energy (%)a
18
28 - 35
• Per capita income ratio:
developed countries to
developing countries
a
1990 values include non-commercial energy consistent with IPCC WGII SAR (Energy Primer) but with
SRES accounting conventions. Note that ASF, MiniCam, and IMAGE scenarios do not consider noncommercial renewable energy. Hence, these scenarios report lower energy use.
Global CO2 Emissions from
Energy & Industry
Total database range
8
A2
IS92 range
2
0
1900
Median
A1, B2
1990 range
(all scenarios)
B1
5%
Minimum in Database
1950
2000
2050
Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.
2100
Non-classified
4
Non-intervention
95%
Maximum in
Database
6
Intervention
Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
SRES Scenarios and Database Range
(index, 1990=1)
10
Scenarios
1990
2100
• CO, (MtCO/yr)
879
363 - 2570
• NMVOC, (Mt/yr)
139
87 - 420
• NOX, (MtN/yr)
30.9
19 - 110
250
200
Range of sulfur-control
scenarios in the database
Maximum in database
150
IS92
100
1990 range
A2
A1
B2
50
B1
Minimum in database
0
1930
1960
1990
2020
2050
Source: IPCC. 2000. Emissions Scenarios. Working Group III. Cambridge.
2080
2100
Sulfur - control
Global Sulfur Dioxide Emissions
(MtS)
Total database range
Sulfur - non-control, and non-classified scenarios
Global Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions (MtS)
Projected Change in Global Mean Surface
Temperature from Models using
the SRES Emissions Scenarios
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
2000
2020
2040
Year
2060
2080
2100
SAR
The 1997/98 El Niño Strongest on Record*
El Niño years
La Niña years
*As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the
eastern tropical Pacific off Peru
Potential Climate Change Impacts
Balanced Approach to Policymaking
• Command and Control Strategies
• Market-based Interventions
• Voluntary Agreements
Enabling Conditions for
Effective Policy Change
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Proper Incentive Systems
Strong Legal Frameworks
Public Participation
Cooperation with the Private Sector
Technological Capacity
Financial and Institutional Capacity
Information for Assessment and Monitoring
The Policy Matrix
USING
MARKETS
CREATING
MARKETS
ENVIRONMENTAL
REGULATIONS
ENGAGING
THE PUBLIC
(Subsidy reduction,
taxes, user fees,
performance bonds,
targeted subsidies)
(Property rights and
decentralization,
tradable permits,
international offset
systems)
(Standards, bans,
quotas)
(Information
disclosure, public
participation)
WATER
FISHERIES
LAND
MANAGEMENT
FORESTS
SUSTAINABLE
AGRICULTURE
BIODIVERSITY/
PROT. AREAS
MINERALS
AIR POLLUTION
WATER
POLLUTION
SOLID WASTE
HAZARDOUS
WASTE
Source: World Bank. 1997. Five Years after Rio: Innovations in Environmental Policy. Washington, D.C.
Mitigation Options
• Supply Side
 Fuel switching (coal to oil to gas)
 Increased power plant efficiency (30% to ~60%)
 Renewables (biomass, solar, wind, hydro, etc.)
 Carbon dioxide sequestration
 Nuclear power
• Demand Side
 Transportation
 Commercial and residential buildings
 Industry
• Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry
 Afforestation, Reforestation and slowing Deforestation
 Improved Forest, Cropland and Rangeland Management
 Agroforestry
• Waste Management and Reduced Halocarbon Emissions
Policy Instruments
• Policies, which may need regional or international agreement,
include:
Energy pricing strategies and taxes
Removing subsidies that increase GHG emissions
Internalizing environmental extranalities
Tradable emissions permits-- domestic and global
Voluntary programs
Regulatory programs including energy-efficiency standards
Incentives for use of new technologies during market buildup
Education and training such as product advisories and labels
• Accelerated development of technologies as well as
understanding the barriers to diffusion into the marketplace
requires intensified R&D by governments and the private sector
Fuel For Thought:
Strategy for The Year 2000
Carbon
Trading
JI
More
Renewables
More
GEF
Clean
Technology
Economic
Instruments
Sector
Reform
Internalizing
Global Externalities
(supporting the postKyoto process)
Environmental
Standards
Energy
Efficiency
Local/Regional
Pollution
Abatement
(to be
Regional
Agreements strengthened)
Clean
Fuel
Rural
Energy
Win-Win
(in place)
Energy Supply
Sustained Growth Scenario
exajoules
Surprise
1500
Geoth.
Solar
Biomass
1000
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
500
Gas
Oil & NGL
Coal
Trad Bio.
0
1860
1880
1900
1920
Source: Shell International Limited.
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Co-Benefits - Mitigation
• Co-benefits can lower the cost of climate change
mitigation
• Identify technologies, practices and policies that can
simultaneously address local and regional
environmental issues and climate change
energy sector
•indoor and outdoor air quality
•regional acid deposition
transportation sector
•outdoor air pollution
•traffic congestion
agriculture and forestry
•soil fertility
•biodiversity and related ecological goods and services
Local and Regional Impacts
Magnitudes and Costs of Impacts
Particulates • Premature death and excess morbidity.
• $100’s millions to billions per year in large cities. (“An average of 10%
of the annual city incomes of Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta.)
• E.Asia, S.Asia, E.Europe, Russia, L.America
Lead
• Excess morbidity and loss of IQ points.
• Up to $100 million per year in large cities.
• E.Asia, S.Asia, E.Europe, Russia, L.America.
Sulfur
• Local excess morbidity; local impacts up to $50 million (?) per year in
large cities.
• Regional acidification; quantification of regional impacts more
difficult than local impacts, due to lack of adequate dose-response data.
• E.Europe, China/Korea/Japan, India.
Other air (ozone, NOx, CO, volatile hydrocarbons, toxic air pollutants)
• Local excess morbidity + some toxic related premature mortality.
• Quantification of impacts more difficult (lack of adequate doseresponse data); probable range.
Internalizing Local and
Regional Externalities
Relative Costs of Abatement
Particulates • Thermal power: relatively in-expensive.
• Cleaner fuels: relatively in-expensive.
• Transporte sector (e.g. improved traffic management,
modal shifts, vehicle fleet upgrade, vehicle
modernization): “reasonably” in-expensive.
Lead
Cleaner gasoline: relatively in-expensive.
Sulfur
FGD for coal-fired thermal power plants: relatively
expensive.
Others (ozone, NOx, CO, volatile hydrocarbons, toxic air pollutants)
Abatement technologies and costs vary. Some
abatement is produced ‘jointly’ with the above
improvements.
Hydro-related externalities
Environmental and social R&R costs very site-specific.
Pollution in Selected Cities (TSP)
Source: OECD Environmental data 1995; WRI China tables 1995; Central Pollution Control Board, Delhi. “Ambient
Air Quality Status and Statistics, 1993 and 1994”; Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World, WHO/UNEP, 1992;
EPA, AIRS database.
Health Costs (TSP in China)
Source: Clear Water, Blue Skies; China’s Environment in the New Century, World Bank, 1997.