Transcript ICAMP Delhi Policy Conclave Feb. 4, 2014

Scripps Inst. of Oceanography
University of California at San Diego
Oakland, California, October 18, 2013
V. Ramanathan, University of California, San Diego, February 04,
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2014. Delhi Poliicy Conclave
Air Pollution is a Major Killer
Lin et al, LANCET, 2013
Ambient particulate matter pollution accounted
for 3·1 million (2·7 million to 3·5 million)
premature deaths every year.
Indoor pollution (cooking/heating smoke) kills
another 3.2 million per yea
Air pollution reduced 75-90% despite growth
Reproduced from: B. Croes, 2013 (CARB)
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Percent Change
1968-2008
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Carbon
Monoxide
Nitrogen
Dioxide
Vehicle
Sulfur Population Number
Dioxide
of Vehicles Miles
Ozone – Los Angeles peak cut over 70%, hours of exposure reduced 90%
PM10 – annual-average levels cut 75%
Air toxics – over 80% cancer risk reduction (since 1989)
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The Air we breathe is getting better:
Statewide BC Trends in California-Annual Mean
(Remote Sites)
Source: Bahadur et al, 2010
Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323
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Co-Benefit of Diesel Black Carbon Reduction To Climate
Change Mitigation
California’s CO2 emission (2009 ): 393 MMT/Yr
The reduction in diesel BC emissions from 1989 to
2008, is equivalent to reducing CO2 emissions by
21 (to 50) million metric tons annually
However, simultaneous mitigation of CO2 emissions from fossil
fuels is essential to limit global warming below 2oC.
Ramanathan et al, 2013: CARB 08-323
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ICAMP: PROCESS
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SCIENCE
Technology
PM & Ozone (NOX)
Trucks/Buses/Three
Soot &Nox reduction
Engines/Sulphur
content of fuel/Filters
wheelers
EVALUATION OF PILOT CITIES
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Targeting air pollution emissions from the transportation sector has
huge benefits for human health and food security. It also has a major
co-benefit of mitigating climate change immediately since the warming
pollutants in the transport emissions (black carbon and ozone) have
very short life times (weeks to months)
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Drastic reduction (more than 90%) of PM and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from the
transportation sector, primarily diesel vehicles (on-road and off-road) and buses,
would have the largest and most immediate beneficial impact on human health,
food and water supply, and regional to global climate change.
Technologies to improve engine emissions and to distill ultra-low sulphur fuels
are available and can be implemented successfully on a large scale. More
importantly, California has demonstrated that these pollutants can be mitigated
drastically without slowing down economic development
There is a large potential to reduce diesel particulate matter (PM) emissions by
implementing stricter vehicle emission and fuel quality standards. Nation-wide
switching to BS-IV standards (50 ppm sulphur) by 2015 and to BS-V standards (10
ppm sulfur) by 2017, would have a perceptible impact on the air we breathe.
We strongly endorse India’s National Urban Transport Policy approach of
“Avoid (transport use), Shift (from high to lower-emission forms of transport),
and Improve (transport technology to reduce emissions).
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State governments in India have enormous potential as the locus for
comprehensive, integrated air quality management, while building state
leadership will require national funding to both motivate and enable action.
A coordinated (between academia and government) observational and
modeling effort is required to develop Science Based Policy directives and to
monitor the effectiveness of mitigation actions in improving ambient air quality
and human health.
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