Transcript Climate Change & Allergic Airway Disease

Climate Change & Public Health
NJDEP Clean Air Council 2009
Leonard Bielory, M.D.
Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air Council
Professor
Medicine, Pediatrics, Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences
UMDNJ - New Jersey Medical School
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2008: Melting Iceberg’s
But the polar
bear might
not be the
only
threatened
species
“How it threatens
your health”
Climate change and air pollution
Climate change and air pollution have, to a large extent,
a common cause –emissions from fossil fuel burning.
The combustion of fossil fuel leads to emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHGs) (CO2, methane, nitrous oxide)
GHGs accumulate in the atmosphere, warming its lower
layers and causing knock-on effects in the Earth System
Increase temperature has a direct effect on air pollutant
in particular O3 formation
Climate Change
Source: geology.com
Source: NASA
Global change factors
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19
Earth’s Average
Surface Temp (OC)
IPCC (2001) estimate:
+ 1.4-5.8 oC by 2100
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17
Central estimate:
2.5 oC increase
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15
Band of historical
climatic variability
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13
1860
1900
1950
2000
Year
2050
2100
WHO estimated mortality (per million
people) attributable to climate change by
the year 2000
Nature 2005;438:310-317.
Health Effects of Climate Change
Urban Heat Island Effect
Air Pollution &
Aeroallergens
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Vector-borne Diseases
Temperature Rise
Sea level Rise
1
2
Cardiorespiratory failure
Asthma, COPD, Allergies
Dengue, Malaria
Encephalitis, Hantavirus
Rift Valley Fever
Water-borne Diseases
Hydrologic Extremes
3°C by yr. 2100
40 cm “ “
IPCC estimates
Heat Stress
Cholera, Campylobacter
Cyclospora, Cryptosporidiosis
Leptospirosis
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2
Water resources & food
supply
Mental Health &
Environmental Refugees
Patz,
1998
Diarrhea, malnutrition
Toxic Red Tides
Overcrowding, Forced Migration
Infectious diseases
Human Conflicts
Climate Change and Respiratory Health
Increased number of deaths and acute
morbidity due to heat waves
Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory
events due to higher concentrations of
ground level of O3
Change in frequency of respiratory diseases
from transboundary long-range air pollution
(e.g related to fires, aerosols)
Altered spatial and temporal distribution of
allergens and some infectious disease vectors
Source: Environment and human Health Committee of the European Respiratory Society ( ERS) Climate
change and respiratory disease: a position statement
Climate Change & Allergic Airway Disease
Risk of dying on days with
temperature of 30°C (lag 0-1) vs of
20 °C in people age 65+
4 italians cities 1997-2004
Stafoggia M, 2008
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“The severity and
duration of summertime
regional air pollution
episodes are projected to
increase in the Northeast
and Midwest US by 20452052 due to climatechange-induced decreases
in the frequency of
surface cyclones.” (IPCC,
2007)
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By 2050, warming alone
may increase by 68% the
number of Red Ozone
Alert days across the
Eastern US.
(IPCC,
2007 -Bell 2006
Percentage change in respiratory hospital
admissions and air pollution across 36 US
cities 1996-1999
Change per 5 ppb O3 ( 8-h) and 10 ug/m3 PM10 (24-h)
Medina-Ramon M, 2006
Ozone effect: increase (%) from 1990 to 2050 in cause
specific hospital admission and total mortality
Hospital
admissions
Mortality
50 eastern US cities, summer months
Bell ML, 2007
Potential human health benefits from reductions in ozone and
particulate matter air pollution associated with implementing GHG
mitigation measures (2001-2020)
(Source: Cifuentes et al. 2001)
Is this the solution?
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Climate Change & Public Health
NJDEP Clean Air Council 2009
Improving Air Quality &
Reducing Climate Change
Leonard Bielory, M.D.
Chairman - NJDEP Clean Air Council
Professor
Medicine, Pediatrics, Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences
UMDNJ - New Jersey Medical School
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