Transcript Socio-Economic Scenarios

Socio-Economic Scenarios
Roberto Roson
University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP
Richard S.J. Tol
Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon
Universities
RT7 Team
• FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW
– Richard Tol
• FEEM, Venice
– Roberto Roson
• CIRED, Paris
– Jean-Charles Hourcade
• IIASA, Vienna
– Brian O‘Neill
• RIVM, Utrecht
– Tom Kram
• CICERO, Oslo
– Asbjorn Aaheim
• LSHTM, London
– Sari Kovats
Tasks
•
•
•
•
Ensembles of emissions scenarios
Ensembles of emission reduction scenarios
Scenarios of land use and adaptive capacity
Feedback of climate change on emissions
scenarios through impacts of climate
change on economy and human health
• Towards the construction of the economic
component of an earth system model
Emissions scenarios
• Events have overtaken this task
• GCMs have started running the SRES
scenarios, and there have always been
ensembles of scenarios available
• We can extend this in the light of the
recent critique on SRES and IPCC and
recent model developments
• We can add a fifth, politically incorrect
scenario
• But only if you intend to run it ...
Emissions scenarios
ENSEMBLES Objective
f (T , P ,...| E )
Needed
f (T , P ,...)   f (T , P ,...| E )f (E )dE
E
Emission reduction scenarios
• USDoE, EMF and ENSEMBLES RT7
decided to join forces in developing
emission reduction scenarios
• Emission reduction scenarios need to
specify four things
– No control scenario (SRES)
– Stabilisation target (450, 550, 650, 750 ppm
CO2, CO2eq, rad. forc., temperature)
– Reduction target allocation over space and time
– Implementation
• Aim is to find a small, representative
number of cases
Land use
• Run IIASA and RIVM models for the above
scenarios
• Work towards LPJ - Land use
Adaptive capacity
• Is needed for impacts
• Add further detail to the population and
economic drivers of the emissions
scenarios
Conventional, scenario-based analyses…
emissions
Socio-economic
systems
Climate
systems
Conventional, scenario-based analyses…
emissions
Socio-economic
systems
Climate
systems
…miss one important feedback!
Assessing the economic impact of climate change:
some key concepts
•
Multiplicity of effects
– e.g., sea level, health, tourism, energy
demand, water availability, extreme events,
land use, agricultural productivity…
• Market interdependence
– General equilibrium
– Computable general equilibrium models
(CGE)
Computable General Equilibrium Models:
Pros and Cons
• + a unifying framework for the consistent analysis
of heterogeneous impacts;
• + a widely accepted assessment tool;
• + general-purpose and flexible;
• - data demanding;
• - rarely used on long-term horizons;
• - national accounting, market based parameter
estimation;
• - calibrated, cannot readily take into account non
observable technologies.
Simulation experiments
of climate change impacts
CO2 emissions in 2050 (% change w.r.t baseline)
Sea Level
rise: no
protection
scenario
USA
EU
EEFSU
JPN
RoA1
EEx
CHIND
RoW
0.010
0.012
0.005
0.035
0.015
-0.008
-0.024
-0.012
Tourism
0.001
0.092
-0.334
-0.188
-1.000
0.075
0.003
0.088
Human
Health
-0.744
0.568
0.773
-0.116
1.168
-0.973
0.229
-1.454
Agriculture
-0.056
-0.004
0.001
0.035
0.032
0.010
0.012
-0.175
Total
-0.787
0.662
0.453
-0.237
0.244
-0.911
0.226
-1.557
Some further remarks
• Others, more significant impacts
• Dynamics