Transcript EEA / ETC ACM project on emission scenarios

An EEA / ETC ACM project on emission scenarios
John van Aardenne
7th meeting of the TFEIP’s projections expert panel
2nd May 2011 Stockholm, Sweden
European Environment Agency
In SOER 2010 emission projections and scenarios of air pollutants and
greenhouse gases is included: (1) SOER (2010), air pollution.
European Environment Agency
In SOER 2010 emission projections and scenarios of air pollutants and
greenhouse gases is included: (2) SOER (2010), climate mitigation.
European Environment Agency
AP and GHG: often same emission sources: efforts to control one group of
pollutant can lead to benefits and disadvantages (SOER (2010), air pollution)
European Environment Agency
Results from recent assessments highlight benefits and disadvantages in
emission reduction of AP and GHG
Reducing cost of air pollution abatement.
Under C&E package costs of implementing future air pollution policy in Europe
may be reduced by around EUR 16 billion per year (EC, 2008/SOER 2010)
Impact on human health.
JRC (2010): C&E package would reduce loss of statistical life expectancy due to
PM in Europe with 2 months (by 2030). In 2000: ~6-8 mnths.
UNEP (2011): implementation of both CH4 and BC measures will in 2030 and
beyond result in annually 2.5 million avoided premature death.
Impact of air pollution abatement (HTAP, 2010)
Decreasing NOx emissions will increase lifetime of CH4
Reduction in PM containing cooling aerosols would increase warming
Reduction in PM containing BC benefit for both AP and GHG
European Environment Agency
In order to understand our environmental assessments we need to understand
what’s in the underlying scenarios (uncertainty in trends but also
methods/assumption)
Figure from HTAP 2010
Chapter A3 (in press)
European Environment Agency
EEA has asked its ETC/ACM to make an assessment on the applicability of
available emission scenarios to study the effect of air and climate policies on
the atmospheric composition and its impact.
Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenarios on how they address the
effect of air and climate policies on the atmospheric composition of
greenhouse gas and air pollutants
Subtask 2: Evaluation of the interaction between air quality and climate policies
on the short term (2020) and the long term (2050).
Subtask 3: Updating of the core set indicator CSI013 (GHG concentration) with
data for 2009 and with new/latest available scenarios
Team: H. Eerens (PBL), L.Rouil (INERIS), R Koelemeijer, J van Minnen (PBL), F
Sauter, F de Leeuw, G Velders (RIVM), L. Rouil, nn (INERIS), G Mellios (Emisia)
EEA proj. man.: J. van Aardenne
European Environment Agency
Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenarios on how they address the
effect of air and climate policies on the atmospheric composition of
greenhouse gas and air pollutants
• Take stock of finished or ongoing activities with a focus on emission scenarios
• Provide an overview of the various emissions projections/backcast scenarios
• Evaluate:
• the extend these scenarios include short term (2020) and long term (2050)
emission trends of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases
• how EU policy making is represented (e.g. IPCC scenarios, WEO outlook
studies, etc)
• how to integrate EU-scale scenarios in global emission scenarios
• how to downscale country emission scenarios from global/regional scenario
studies.
• Prepare recommendations for a consistent set of AP and GHG emission
scenarios applying or integrating existing emission scenarios
• Prepare a database with a consistent set of AP and GHG emission scenarios
• Add. Task: Future (2050) emissions of the European vehicle fleet.
European Environment Agency
Subtask 1: Evaluation of available emission scenario (~ 35)
Author
FEEM
Tyndall
van Vuuren, et al., in prep.
van Ruijven et al., in prep.
EC, 2011
IIASA
Greens/EFA, 2011
EMEP-HTAP, 2011
UNEP, 2011
Shell, 2011
E3MLab
"IPCC AR5"
JRC, 2010
Greenpeace/EREC, 2010
ECF, 2010
EREC, 2010
IEA, 2010
Van Vuuren, et al., 2010a
van Vuuren,et al., 2010b
EC- DGEN / IIASA, 2010
EC- DGEN / IIASA, 2010
EIA, 2010
IAEA, 2010
TRL
Fraunhofer - ISI
Eurelectric, 2009
Royal Society, 2009
PBL/SRC/SU, 2009
Doering et al.
Rypdal, et al., 2009
Bollen, et al., 2009
Selin et al., 2009
IEA, 2009
Exxon/Mobil, 2009
iTREN-2030
IEA
TRANSvisions
World Bank, 2008
US-CCSP, 2007
Title
FEEM Probabilistic Long-term assessment of new energy technology scenarios
CIAS model
Developing new scenarios as a common thread for future climate research
The potential impact from hydrogen energy use on the atmosphere
Roadmap for a low carbon economy by 2050
Global Energy Assessment
The Vision Scenario for the European Union 2011, Update for the EU-27
Ozone & Aerosols - Chapter A3: Emissions & Projections
UNEP BC assessment
Shell Energy Scenarios to 2050
Clean Technology Systems - various scenario
NIES/AIM, IIASA/MESSAGE, PNNL/MiniCAM, and PBL/IMAGE RCP scenarios
Climate and air quality impacts of combined climate change and air pollution policy scenarios
Energy [R]evolution
Roadmap 2050: a practical guide to a prosperous low-carbon Europe
RE-Thinking 2050 - A 100% Renewable Energy Vision for the European Union
Energy technology perspectives 2010
Low stabilization scenarios and implications for major world regions from an integrated assessment perspective
Exploring IMAGE model scenarios that keep greenhouse gas radiative forcing below 3W/m2 in 2100
GAINS projections based on Primes 2009-baseline (EU energy trends to 2030 - Update 2009)
GAINS projections based on Primes 2010-reference (EU energy trends to 2030 - Update 2009)
EIA international energy outlook 2010
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050
Policies ro decarbonise transport in Europe: 80 by 50
A transport scenario for Europe until 2050 in a 2-degree world
Power choices: pathways to carbon-neutral electricity in Europe by 2050
Ground-level ozone in the 21st century: future trends, impacts and policy implications
Getting into the right lane for 2050
CIRCE emission scenarios
Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement
Local air pollution and global climate change: A combined cost-benefit analysis
Global health and economic impacts of future ozone pollution
World energy outlook 2009
Outlook for energy; A view to 2030
The iTREN-2030 Reference Scenario until 2030
Transport, Energy and CO2 - BLUE Map/Shifts scenario
Transport Scenarios with a 20 and 40 Year Horizon
International Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development
Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations
Year of publication
in prep
in prep
in prep
in prep
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2010
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2009
2008
2007
European Environment Agency