Transcript The May 2010 flooding in Poland

FELIX QUI PÓTUIT RERUM
COGNÓSCERE CÁUSAS
(Vergílius Geórgica II, 490)
(Happy man who was able to find causes
of the issue)
CLIMATE CHANGE…
°C
MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE - KRAKÓW st. HISTORYCZNA
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
1790 1800 1810 1820 1830 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
year
T - średnia
T - Gauss
trend liniowy
°C
MEAN WINTER TEMPERATURE (D, J, F) - KRAKÓW st. HISTORYCZNA
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
-11
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
lata
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
T - średnia
1970
1980
1990
T - Gauss
2000
2010
2020
trend liniowy
°C
MEAN SUMMER TEMPERATURE (J, J, A) - KRAKÓW st. HISTORYCZNA
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
1790
1800
1810
1820
1830
1840
1850
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
year
1930
1940
1950
1960
T - średnia
1970
1980
1990
T - Gauss
2000
2010
2020
trend liniowy
Temperature changes of the Earth
in the last 450 000 years
4
2
0
-4
°C (dT)
-2
-6
-8
-10
1.5°C/700 years !!!
-12
-450000
-400000
-350000
-300000
-250000
-200000
lata - years (BP)
-150000
-100000
-50000
0
?
Climate change & extremes model
Climate change
& extremes
`
Long-term climate change
Real
Apparent
Changes in observing
times
Local
Changes in
averaging methods
Changes in
vegetation,
soil or drainage
Station
relocations
Changes in the close
vicinity of the station
Re/deforestation,
artificial lakes
Building
construction
Urbanization
Instrumentation
Industrialization
Shelter/screen
Change in
design
Change in
location/height
Progressive
changes (e.g.
Dirtying)
Measuring device
Change in
calibration
due to ageing
Replacement
Other
Directly or
indirectly
climatic
Changes in
circulation
Changes in
planetary albedo,
ice and snow
Changes in
atmospheric
transparency
(aerosols, CO2
Extraterrestrial
changes (solar
constant, etc.)
Climatic
cyclec?
Other
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
?
CLIMATE SCENARIOS
Modelling…
Statistical and empirical downscalling…
Scenarios…
(SRES scheme)
Projected global air temperature changes (surface warming) according to
different emission scenarios (IPCC)
winter: D J F
summer: J J A
Relative changes in precipitation (in %) for the period 2090-2099,
relative to 1980-1999
SRES: A1B scenario
Large-scale relative changes in annual runoff (water availability in %)
for the period 2090-2099, relative to 1980-1999
SRES: A1B scenario
Uncertainty …
Projected global air
temperature changes
according to different
emission scenarios
(different IPCC reports)
CONCLUSIONS
→ Climate changes are facinating issues from the scientific point of view. However,
they require broad, interdisciplinary knowledge.
→ Climate change reveals as unusual complex problem. It also concern its climate
impacts.
→ Due to official scientific scenarios the climate change impacts on population
including the life quality and health are not too optimistic for low latitude located
countries (e.g. Sahel region). Let us hope that these scenarios will be totally
wrong. Scenarios are much better for Central Europe.
→ One should believe that human mind and activity including policy and solidarity
will solve the most difficult human problems - even if the worst scenarios will
happen.
→ In all climate change studies and research there is some percentage of
uncertainty. No one with high responsibility can formulate absolute opinions as
to climate future as well as impacts including human population.
→ Therefore the following sentence given by O. Wilde seems to be quite actual:
EMS & ECAC, 10-14th September 2012, Lodz, Poland
”Man can believe the impossible, but man
can never believe the improbable”
(Oscar Wilde)
The day after tomorrow…
Bratislava, 8 November 2012
Bratislava, 8 November 2012
Bratislava, 8 November 2012