Transcript ESPON 3.2 – Spatial Scenarios

ESPON 3.2 – Spatial Scenarios
Introduction to the workshops
Where are we at in the project ?
– Thematic scenarios are finalised
– Hypotheses for integrated scenarios
validated by MC
– Currently team is working on integrated
scenarios
– First draft model results are coming in
Integrated scenarios
– Spatial scenarios based on combination of
themes
– Three types of scenarios:
– One baseline scenario
– Two prospective policy scenarios
– One proactive (roll-back scenario)
Prospective and proactive policy scenarios
Today we discuss the baseline scenario
– Reference scenario
– Analysis of current trends
– Closest to ESPON projects
– You have received a very preliminary sketch
Bonus for Sara: the first draft MASSTresults
GDP/capita 2015
Baseline scenario
DRAFT
First MASST Results
GDP growth 2015
Baseline scenario
DRAFT
Aim of the workshops
– Regional validation of the hypotheses
– Identification of regional specificities
– Identification of regional impacts
Aim of the workshops
– Regional validation of the hypotheses:
Do you recognise the trends identified in your
country/region ? If so, where in particular ?
– Identification of key sub-trends by
region:
Which of these are dominant, most visible or
relevant, by region ?
– Identification of regional impacts:
What are the most important territorial
impacts of these likely to be ?
4 regional workshops
– North: Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland,
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia
– West: Belgium, France, Luxembourg,
Netherlands, UK, Ireland, Switzerland,
Germany
– East: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Romania, Austria,
Bulgaria
– South: Cyprus, Greece, Italy, Malta, Spain,
Portugal
Workshops in practice
– Part 1: Regional validation and prioritisation:
– Each participant fills out validation sheet
– Country/region groups identify points of
disagreements (with hypothesis or with each
other)
– Points of disagreement reported and
discussed in plenary workshop
– Part 2: Identification of regional impacts:
– Sub-groups identify main territorial impacts
and their spatial distribution within their
country/region
– Feedback and discussion in plenary workshop