Transcript QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop 2009-01-01

QER SMT Scenario Planning
Workshop
by Professor Ron Johnston
28 April 2009
Brisbane
QER faces a future marked by
uncertainty, complexity and change
• Structure of the global economy
• Extent and impact of potential climate
change
• Range of responses to growing oil
scarcity
• New technologies with high impact on
supply and demand for energy
• Conflict between economic and
environmental values
• State, national and international
legislation and policies
Foresight
Assisting organisations to think
systematically about the future so they
can develop robust strategies for it by:
– Understanding what types of
futures might be possible
– Challenging presumptions
– Building greater resilience into
strategy
Differentiating Foresight
Action-oriented [vs. ‘contemplative’
(passive)]
Participatory [vs. non-participatory]
Alternative futures [vs. a single future
state]
Probable, possible and preferred futures
Basic types of dialogue in a
Foresight exercise
Structured stakeholder dialogue
Diagnosis
Understanding
where we are…
Prognosis
Exploring what
could happen…
Prescription
Debating what we would
like to happen…
Deciding what should
be done …
Tool
Future
Time-horizon
(years)
Expert Vs
Participative
Strategic Planning
Preferred
1-3
E+
Trend Analysis
Probable
2-5
E++
Horizon Scanning
Possible
2-5
E+P
Panel/Inquiry
Preferred
2-5
E+P
Roadmapping
Preferred
3-7
E++
Delphi Polling
Probable
5-15
E++
Scenario Planning
Possible
5-50
E + P++
Modelling
Probable
5-50
E++
Scenario Planning
Avoids the incrementalism of traditional planning
Where do we need
to be 15-20 years
from now?
GOAL
GOAL
Where can we be next year?
And the next?…
Where we
are now
Versus
TIME
Incrementalism
Annual Planning
Where we
are now
What should we
do today?
TIME
Anticipating
Scenario Planning
Avoiding Limitations
Instead of:
Today
Most Likely
Future
Master
Plan
We will:
Alternative
Futures
Core
Strategies
Today
…A set of core strategies, but not a single “grand strategy”…
Developing Future Scenarios
Key Global Affairs
Mission Drivers
Energy
Derive Key Forces For
Change (Dimensions)
Outside Direct Control
The “Planning Space”
Economy
Education
Trade
Regional Conflict
Technology
Demographics
Health & Disease
Fiscal Health
Ethics
Set the Boundary
Conditions
of the Planning Space
Scenarios Selected to
Capture The Range of
Planning Uncertainty
Evergreen II Scenarios
Immersion in
Future “Worlds”
Future Operating
Environments
Profits & Principles
Congagement
USCG
Expertise
(Workshop)
Optimal USCG
Strategies
Asian Way
Lockdown
Be Careful
What You
Wish For
Set of
Robust
Strategies
Scenario Planning
A scenario is a ‘story’ illustrating visions of
possible future or aspects of possible
future.. Scenarios are not predictions about
the future but rather simulations of some
possible futures. They are used both as an
exploratory method or a tool for decisionmaking, mainly to highlight the
discontinuities from the present and to
reveal the choices available and their
potential consequences
Elements of Scenario Planning
1. Identify the focal issue
2. Identification and analysis of the
drivers
3. Rank by importance and uncertainty
4. Selecting scenario parameters
5. Writing the scenarios
6. ‘Back-casting’ to identify key
interventions
Economic Drivers
Resumed economic growth



High energy demand from China, India
Strong drive for alternate fuels
Commodity prices soar again
Truncated economic growth


High oil prices constrain economic recovery
Capital availability limited
Environmental Drivers
Strong environmental pressures



High range climate change
Copenhagen sets tough ETS requirements –
targets to decarbonise
economies
High range climate
change
Major investment in climate change
Moderate environmental pressures



Low range climate change
Increasing doubt about greenhouse science
Priority to create jobs
Technological Drivers
Major advances in supply technology


Efficiency of oil extraction doubled through
application of biological agents
Electric car production soars based on new
battery technology
Major advances in demand technology


Energy management industry booming with
new products and services
High efficiency cars dominate global
production
Political Drivers
Market based approaches


High level of taxation on road use
Private sector investment drives alternate fuel
development
Interventionist approaches


Major government investment in alternate fuel
development
Governments strongly influenced by
environmental pressures
Social/Values Drivers
Values dominated by environmental
concerns


Hydrocarbon anathema
fuels of goods
Large decrease inalternate
transport

Environmental extremism rejected in favour of
jobs and community well-being
Values dominated by economic concerns