Transcript Session 1 - Workshop process (Anita Pirc Velkavrh)

“Future water use and the challange of hydropower development in
western Balkan”
11-13 February 2013, Ljubljana
Workshop process
Anita Pirc Velkavrh
Strategic Futures
European Environment Agency
Goals of the workshop:
• Capacity building in understanding and learning methods applied
in the project (explorative scenario building method and computer
based vision building)
• Strengthening the Eionet network in Western Balkan in forwardlooking issues related to water use and enhance their communication
and exchange of practices and knowledge
• Providing input information, gather stakeholders for EEA report
Workshop outcomes:
•
Refined scenarios for WB:
water availability, energy development, risks of floods and droughts,
good water quality biodiversity, food and energy supply, health risk
and conflicts.
• Desired vision for hydropower use for electricity production.
• Acquired knowledge on and practice of computer based vision
building
tool (“vision canvas”) for water sector.
24 October 2011
DAY 1
Day 1
Get to know better
• each other
• the region of Western Balkan with its
challanges
• Balkan scenarios developed in 2011
Scenarios on water availability in the context of climate
change for Western Balkan until 2060 (produced 2011)
25 October 2011
DAY 2
Scenarios for Western Balkan until 2060 (produced 2011) :
insights to water use, energy supply, security impacts
Day 2
Insights to scenarios 2011
• ETC ICM expert view on the region:
– Water and economy, hydroenergy and some impacts
to water
• Refinment of scenarios
– Water use, energy supply (incl HP), security
implications
– Case examples for each scenarios for specific areas
(Neretva, Drina, Vardar, Tara, Danube, Sava)
• Work in 4 groups, 4 faciliators and 4 helpers, in
plenay (case studies)
Refinment of scenarios
Each group will work on 1 scenarios
(pay attention to the scenarios for your group)
Remeber:
• Axes of scenarios
• Key characteristics and trigger points for
scenarios (see background doc)
26 October 2011
DAY 3
VISION
Day 3
Vision building
• develop your visions:
- Your own vision for your country (on energy/HP)
- Group vision for energy/HP in WB
• using web tool (VISION CANVAS) adopted for
this workshop
• work in 4 groups, 2 facilitators from Alterra on
tool use, 4 group faciliators
• Feedback on experiance from using the tool in
evaluation questioannair
• Conclusions of the workshop
Mode of work
Facilitated group work
Countries focus: many presentations with
countries experiances
Posters with key information
Creative work, personal contributions
See Rules of engagement
When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule,
participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the
affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.
Thank you
How to deal with the future?
• scenarios
Zureck and Henrichs, 2007
WHY SCENARIOS?
•
•
•
•
•
Provide long term view
Need for perpective
Slow unfolding processes
Limited understanding of systems, complex dynamic systems
Water system includes and is influenced by many factors which are
difficult to quantify
• Holistic view on water systems
• Input to decision making with alternatives and causual processes
• Platform for conversation and consensus building
Provide better understanding of focal issue and decisions in place
or foreseen.
Qualitative scenarios
Qualitative: words, images, stories
 They are understandable, easy and interesting to
communicate
 They can represent complex systems
 Represent views of different experts and stakeholders at
the same time
 They lack numerical estimates
 Assumptions are not articulated clearly
Combination qualitative and quantitative:
Story and simulation approach
Gallopin and Raskin, 2002
EXAMPLE
Projections and quantitative
modelling of future (trends)
Produced by computer models
 Assumptions are clearer than in qual. scenarios
 They receive some degree of scientific scrutnity
 To the users they can imply that we know more about
the future than we actually do
 Difficult to communicate to non-experts
 Can’t capture phenomena which can’t be described by
numbers (i.e.social) and complex environment
 Limited in scope/selected pheomena are described
IEA long-term forecasts of annual
additions: World
European wind association, 2008
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
What will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?
Identify driving forces
Identify most important
uncertainties
S
T
Identify scenarios matrix
S1
S2
S3
S4
E
E
P
SESSION 2
SESSION 3
SESSION 4
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
What will be the impacts of climate change on water availability in the
western Balkan region in long term future (50 years)?
Identify scenario logic
S1
S2
S3
S4
SESSION 2
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
What will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?
Description of scenarios
S1
S2
S3
S4
SESSION 3
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
Risks to water availability in the future
S1
S2
S3
S4
SESSION 4
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
What will be water availability in the western Balkan region in next decades?
Storylines development
DESCRIPITON of the future state
S1
S2
S1
By STEEP categories:
S2
Social issues
Technological issues
Economic issues
Environmental issues:
S3
S3
S4
S4
SESSION 3
•
•
•
Water
Climate change impacts
general
Political issues
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
What is threatening availability of water in
each scenario and what are the risks?
S1
S2
Threats by STEEP
categories:
Social issues
Ie.security
S3
S4
Technological issues
Economic issues
Environmental issues:
Ie. Climate change
Political issues
SESSION 4
S1 THREATS
1. water pollution in urban areas
2. lack of water treatment
infrastructure in coastal areas
3. lack of new technologies for
irrigation
RISKS
1. of lack of good sanitation water
availability in urban areas in coast
and big cities – HIGH risk
2. of lack of food (domestic crop
production, more imports needed)
– MEDIUM risk
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
Goals identification to control risks
S1
risks
RISKS
1. of lack of good
sanitation water
availability in urban
areas in coast and big
cities – HIGH risk
2. of lack of food (domestic
crop production, more
imports needed) –
MEDIUM risk
GOALS
1. Reduce water pollution
2. Secure food for domestic
population
3. …..
SESSION 4
SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS
Pathways to future goals
S1
GOAL 1
3
S3
1
GOAL 1
3
3
NOW
2
3
NOW
3
SESSION 5
Implications and paths,
warning indicators
SESSION 5
SESSION 1
SCENARIO QUESTION
Revise scenario question (Output 1):
What are the possible sustainable energy
pathways until 2050 in Eastern Europe?
DRIVING FORCES
SESSION 2
Identify driving forces
S
T
E
E
P
Output 2
List of driving forces
(in English and Russian)
UNCERTAINTIES
SESSION 3
Identify most importan
uncertainties
Output 3
Four potential scenario axes
(in English and Russian)
SCENARIO LOGIC
SESSION 4
Identify most important
uncertainties
Output 4
Selected matrix (two scenario axes)
(in English and Russian)
SCENARIO DESCRIPTION
Output 5
4 Energy scenarios
SESSION 4
Develop plausible
scenarios
S1
S2
S3
S4
SESSION 5
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
Implications
Output 6
First identification of environmental impacts
per scenario