Transcript berkhout_socio-econo - global change SysTem for Analysis

Non-Climate Scenarios:
The 2000 SRES
Frans Berkhout
SPRU-Science and Technology Policy
Research
University of Sussex
Why scenarios?
• The future is not like the present
• The future is uncertain - many outcomes
are plausible
• Need a framework for handling diverse
and uncertain outcomes
What is a futures scenario?
Future
state
1
Current
state
Driving
forces
Attracting
and
repelling
forces
Sideswipes
Past
Present
Future
Future
state
2
Future
state
3
Exploratory scenarios seek...
‘...to illuminate choices of the present in
the light of possible futures...’ (Godet,
1996)
Special challenges in building
non-climate scenarios
• Novelty and innovation
• Reflexivity
• Contested futures
Scenario approaches
• Extrapolatory
• Normative (backcasting)
• Exploratory
Components of non-climate
scenarios
Storyline
Indicators/parameters
SRES Scenarios
• Need for emissions parameters for climate
models
• Covers all radiatively important gases
• 4 ‘macro-regions’
• 6 modelling teams: AIM, ASF, IMAGE,
MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM
Process
•
•
•
•
•
Review
Identify drivers
Formulate narrative storylines
Quantify storylines using models
‘Open’ review process
Ground-rules
•
•
•
•
No ‘business as usual’ scenario
No probabilities ascribed
No climate policy assumed
No adaptation assumed
Principal dynamics
•
•
•
•
Population growth
GDP growth
Energy and technological change
Land-use change
The scenario dimensions
ECONOMIC
A1
A2
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
B1
B2
ENVIRONMENTAL
Scenario storylines
A1: rapid economic growth, low population
growth, rapid adoption of new
technologies, convergence of regions,
capacity building, increased social
interaction, reduced region differences in
per capita income
Scenario storylines
A2: heterogenous world, self-reliance and
local identities preserved, high population
growth, regionally-specific economic
growth, fragmented economic and
technological development
Scenario storylines
B1: convergent world with low population
growth, transition to service and info
economy, resource productivity
improvements, clean technology towards
global solutions
Scenario storylines
B2: Divergent world with emphasis on local
solutions to economic, social and
environmental sustainability, moderate
population growth, intermediate levels of
economic growth, less rapid technological
change
Some problems and weaknesses
• Conceptual framework not well specified
• Feedbacks between environmental and
social and economic development not
considered
• Too much emphasis on conventional
drivers (I=PAT formula)