Transcript 922722-comunication - Regional Policy Briefings

Indicative elements for planning the management
of risks connected to climate change for food
security
in West Africa
Institut d’applications et de vulgarisation
science (IAVS [Institute for the application and popularisation of
science])
Website: www.iavs.info
Email: [email protected]
1
Objectives of this communication
To share analysis data and decision-making tools connected
with the management of the risks posed by climate change
for food security in West Africa
2
Basic data of food security
3
Food security will be seen as a system,
made up of four sub-systems or
components:
 the availability of
food of good health
and
nutritional
quality;

physical
and
economic access to
food resources ;
 stability of supply
over space and time ;
Components of food
security
Availability
Accessibility
Food production
physical access
and
Food imports
economic
access
Stability of
supply
performance of
infrastructures
climatic stability
Food aid
political and social
stability
Food stocks
Food usage
Soundness and
quality of the
food
food practices
and habits
health
optimum use of the
foodstuffs ;
4
Food insecurity
Structural or chronic food insecurity
Temporary food insecurity
Permanent inability to meet food
needs
5
Climate change and its impact on
development and food security in West
Africa
6
Climate change is change which will take place over time with
specific local effects
Characterisation of the development of the climate
In the short and medium
term
Increase in the frequency and
intensity of climatic extremes
Increase in temperature,
climatic variability and sea levels
In the long term
Climate upheaval
(change of averages and
extremes) and environmental
change
(What models are available for
planning, developing and managing
water resources as of now?)
7
Climate change implies a variety of threats to
development in West Africa
Potential effects of climate change
on development in West Africa
In the short term
More serious damage because of
the shock to fragile systems and
communities
Recovery time between two shocks
becomes shorter and shorter
 Danger of destabilisation and
threat to sub-regional integration
 Reduced success of development
policy
In the long term
To identify the challenges
associated with the future climate
and to promote as of now models
for development and sub-regional
integration as a response
A forward-looking analysis is
essential
8
Climate change implies a variety of threats to
development in West Africa and may also offer
opportunities
Risks and opportunities linked to climate
change regarding food security
In the short and medium term
More frequent and more severe food
crises, particularly for the rural zones
In the long term
Chronic food insecurity
Opportunities?
Need for a forward-looking analysis for decisionmaking
9
Projections contained in the international literature for Africa
(GIEC, 2007)
 In some countries, the rain-dependent agriculture yield could fall by 50% by
2020. It is expected that agricultural output and access to food will be
seriously affected in many countries, with serious consequences for food
security and malnutrition;
 According to a number of climate scenarios, the area of arid and semi-arid
land could increase by from 5 to 8% by 2080
10
11
Planning the management of the risks associated with climate
change for food security
12
The scientific, technological and political bases
of a response to climate risk
Scientific research
for decision-making
Technological
innovation and
development
Governance: Food
security policies and
strategies which factor in
climate risk as a matter
of course
13
Scientific research guidelines for decision-making






the rate and extent of climate change;
the effect of climate change on food security;
sensitivity of food security to climate change;
the socio-economic impact of the effect of climate change on food security;
the development of food security scenarios for West Africa;
methodologies for factoring in considerations linked to climate change in food security
policies;
 political and institutional pathways for adaptation to climate change.
14
Technological development and innovation
Expanding access to agricultural production
technologies
15
Aspects of Governance
Food security policies and strategies incorporate the
considerations linked with climate change.
16
Scenarios for promoting dialogue
To facilitate the analysis of the future of food security in West Africa, the
IAVS uses three scenarios for climate change and food security. One
scenario is a description of one possible future, among many others.
Climate change scenarios
Scenario S1: a general, radical and negative upheaval of the regional
and local climate (averages and extremes)
Scenario S2: a climate characterised by increased temperature, and
increased frequency and intensity of climatic shocks
Scenario S3: a climate characterised by a return to favourable
climatic conditions (climate renaissance)
17
Climate change scenarios
Expected impacts on food
security
Scenario S1
Significant degradation of conditions
of production and accessibility ;
permanent destabilising factors
Scenario S2
Scenario S3
Large fluctuation in agricultural
production; degradation of access
conditions; recurrent destabilising
factors
Significant improvement in
production and access conditions;
investments in the agricultural
sector.
Food security scenario
possibilities
Collapse: ( the scenario of the
permanently empty store): a
sub-region drifting and very
dependent on food aid
Disorder ( he scenario with the
barn often half empty): a subregion forced to face
recurrent food crises
Abundance (The scenario of the
overflowing barn): a sub-region
successful on the agricultural
level
18
The ClimProspect model and it applications
to food security
The IAVS has developed a model for planning the
management of climate risk, the ClimProspect
model.
If applied, it could provide West Africa with a
regional action framework for adaptation to climate
change in the food security sector: a multi-stage
long-term climate risk management procedure
19
Action framework for adaptation to climate change
in the food security sector
Short- and medium -term vulnerability
management policies and measures
Preventive measures
First stage of the adaptation
process
Long- term vulnerability management policies and
measures to be implemented now
Response (crisis
management) and relief
measures
Second stage of the
adaptation process
Adaptation to climate change factored
into development policies and actions
Food security models resilient
to climate risk
Third stage of the adaptation
process
Adaptation process broken down into
several climate risk management steps or
stages
20