Transcript Hallie Eakin - Institutions - global change SysTem for Analysis

Institutional Change,
Stakeholders and Adaptation
How to account for
socioeconomic change?
• Scenarios: socioeconomic change represented by
GDP, Population, assumptions of technological
efficiency
• Problems?
– Decisions made in relation to shorter-term variability and
“events”
– Experience of socioeconomic variability not easily
modeled
– Intersector linkages not easily expressed or understood
Why Worry about Institutional
Change?
• Decisions are rarely made in relation to climate
risk alone
• Institutional change matters
– Can overwhelm signal of climatic variability and
change
– Can be highly variable and unpredictable
– Can represent “shocks” to system, similar to
climate
– Limits and/or facilitates adaptation today and in the
future
Assumptions about Agricultural
Adaptation
• Farmers will perceive and respond efficiently to
climate signal
• Decisions on crop choice, management, inputs and
labor are flexible, responsive to market prices
• Households will act to optimize profits and/or
yields
• Adaptation options are within agricultural sector
(Hanemann, 2000, Climatic Change)
Case study in Mexico
Plan de Ayala
Los Torres
Nazareno
Tlaxcala
Puebla
Climatic Hazards
ENSO
Agriculture
?
?
?
Rural industry
?
Farm Household
Urban labor markets
?
Institutional Change
Neoliberalism,
Privatization
Stakeholders
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Small-scale rainfed maize farmers
Small-scale commercial vegetable farmers
Agricultural extension and research
National University of Mexico (forecasts)
National Water Commission
Agricultural ministry (SAGARPA)
Neoliberalism
in Mexican Agriculture
• “Commercially viable” farmers new beneficiaries
of credit, insurance, extension, technology transfer
• Stagnant or declining producer prices
• Increased competition and obstacles to
commercialization
• New opportunities in rural industries and maquilas
Consultations with Farmers
• Community timelines: Important events, key
changes in livelihoods
• Key decisions re: sensitive activity(ies)
• Surveys
– Perceptions of tendencies of socio economic change
(points of vulnerability/opportunity)
– Non-climatic vs. climatic factors influencing decisions
• Content, trends and implications of structuring
factors
Perceptions of Institutional Change
• Subsistence community:
Change has been positive: New availability of welfare
support
• Semi-commercial:
Change has been mixed: New programs, but we are
excluded. Input costs have risen, producer prices
stagnated.
• Small-scale commercial:
Change has been mixed. Prices more variable, no
insurance. New crops available, new market
opportunities.
Crop Diversification
•
Producer Prices, Tlaxcala
Shorter-cycle crops are
better adapted
1.8
Constraints:
1.4
– No subsistence incentive
– No economic incentive
– Lack of insurance &
credit
1.6
pesos/kg
•
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Maize Barley
1995
1996
Oats
Wheat
1997
1998
Obstacles to crop choice
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Land availability and tenure
Food insecurity and cultural preference
Market prices for “alternative” crops
Market access: lack of insurance, cost of
production
• Profitability and opportunity in livestock
market