Transcript Knowledge for development under climate change Habiba Gitay

Knowledge for development
under climate change
Habiba Gitay
World Bank Institute
• A brief overview of
climate change and
risks to
development
• knowledge and
capacity
For publications and news on the latest climate change
initiatives
Look for “climate change” on www.worldbank.org includes
Development Outreach and Environment Matters
Earth systems
• Interacting components between land, ocean
and atmosphere
Importance of greenhouse gases
• Greenhouse gases keep the earth
“habitable”
Increases in major greenhouse gases
Past atmospheric concentrations of
CO2
700
Projected
(2100)
650
600
Vostok Record
IPCC IS92a Scenario
Law Dome Record
Mauna Loa Record
500
Concentration of carbon
dioxide(CO2) in the atmosphere
Current
has remained within tight
bounds
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
400,000
300,000
200,000
Years Before Present
(B.P. -- 1950)
100,000
0
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
550
Observed changes
Average surface
temperature
Melting Sea Ice / Glaciers
/ Permafrost
Increased precipitation e.g. in
the northern temperate areas
Sea level rise
and storm
surges
Extreme events –
increased frequency of droughts, floods
Observed impacts
Marine and coastal
systems mangroves, coral
reefs, coastal
fisheries, erosion of
coastlines
Human societies– floods, droughts, sea level rise/storm surges affected
infrastructure and livelihoods; increased water scarcity, malnutrition, vector
and water borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever, cholera, diarrhoea)
Observed impacts
Terrestrial systems
–poleward and
upward migration of
species/ecosystems;
increase in frequency
and intensity of pest
and disease
outbreaks (e.g. in
forests), wildfires.
Changes in growing
seasons, increased in
crops in northern
temperate areas,
decrease in many
parts of Africa
Impacts lends
urgency … risk
losing
developmental
gains
Inertia and lifetime of GHGs
Recent Observations
Near the top or above IPCC projections
Rahmstorf et al Science 2007
Managing climate risk
• Impacts and ability to manage them depends on
– Geographical location and exposure
• Present and historical climate
• Condition of natural resources (e.g. fresh water supplies,
fishery, forests, agricultural production)
– Sensitivity
• Are the areas and populations near their “climatic limit”
– Socioeconomic, institutional factors
• Education
• Technical and financial capacity
• Political will
Impacts likely to get worse
A Global Deal for action
• Climate Change “fundamental failure of markets”
• Atmosphere suffers from “tragedy of the
commons”
• Action has to be effective, economically efficient
and equitable and be “global”
• Includes technology development and rapid
sharing of technology and knowledge
• Finances for both adaptation and for low carbon
economies
Modified from Stern & Noble 2007
Bali Action Plan
part of United Nations Framework on Climate Change
negotiations
Mitigation
Adaptation
Technology
Development
and Transfer
Resource
Provision:
Funding and
Investment
Knowledge, capacity and resources
• Climate Change and how it affects
development
• Develop human capacity
– Share knowledge rapidly
– Make the needed change, learn for implementation and share
that knowledge
• Research and development - Knowledge
generation for local context
–
–
–
–
–
policy changes
regulatory changes
technological changes
Innovations (Development Market Place as an idea)
Scaling-up
Knowledge – Mitigation Option
Include introduction and/or scaling up of:
–Improved energy efficiency and conservation
–cleaner oil and coal technologies;
–renewable energy, including solar, wind and
hydropower;
–market mechanisms for carbon trading
–the role of forestry and agriculture, including
reduced emissions from deforestation and
degradation (REDD),
–policy instruments, including regulatory
frameworks, as well as carbon taxes,
incentives, subsidies and education to help
change behavior patterns.
Economically efficient technologies
Sweeney 2007
Adaptation
Reduce other impacts, adapt to changed conditions
• Use natural resources efficiently
• Change some input-intensive production
systems to less intensive (e.g. agriculture)
• Fix what doesn’t work now – better prepared for
the future. Reality…..
– Better cope with present climatic extremes
– Deal with present climatic extremes in the context of
all other pressures – part of development. Action from
communities, government and private sector
Urgency means – knowledge and
capacity paramount
• Improve knowledge sharing on
– Early phase technologies and Approaches to adaptation
– Scaling up - policies and strategies to do so national
action
• Enhance and maintain capacity
– Understanding of climate change in university curricula
– Active participation of stakeholders affected
– Implement learning by doing and sharing knowledge on
early action
– Working across “silos”
• Better risk management of present climatic conditions and
preparedness for future climate
• Large challenges for future generations
• Work towards Low carbon economies and resilient
societies
Thank you
More information at
www.worldbank.org/ and click on
climate change