Transcript ESPON Climate Change

ESPON Climate
ESPON CLIMATE - Climate Change and Territorial Effects on Regions
and Local Economies
Stefan Greiving (TU Dortmund)
Objectives and methodological framework
Territorial development is regarded to be responsible for and capable of
reducing regional vulnerability to climate change and developing climate
mitigation and adaptation capacities.
There is a need for a step forward towards a clear territorial response to
climate change.
Territorially differentiated adaptation strategies call for an evidence basis.
This is what the ESPON
Climate project is about:
a pan-European vulnerability
assessment as a basis for
identifying regional typologies
of climate change exposure,
sensitivity, impact and
vulnerability.
On this basis, tailor-made
adaptation options can be
derived which are able to
cope with regionally specific
patterns of climate change.
Emissions
Mitigation
Climate
change
Climate
variability
Non-climatic
factors
Exposure
Sensitivity
to climatic stimuli
to climatic stimuli
Adaptive
capacity
Adaptation
Impacts
of climate change
Vulnerability
to climate change
Climate change regions and case studies
Typology of similar climate change
patterns and not a typology of the
present climate.
The seven case studies of the
ESPON Climate project serve to
cross-check and deepen the findings
of the pan-European assessment of
the other research actions.
The studies cross-check the
indicators and findings of the
European-wide analysis with the
results of the case study areas, but
also explore the diversity of
response approaches to climate
change.
Thus, they focus on aspects not
covered in the European-wide
analysis, such as understanding the
cultural and institutional factors
influencing climate change effects.
Europe’s regions and their different sensitivities to climatic
changes
According to the IPCC,
sensitivity is defined as “the
degree to which a system is
affected, either adversely or
beneficially, by climate-related
stimuli.” (IPCC 2007)
Economic sensitivity includes
agriculture and forestry, tourism
and the energy sector.
Particularly those local
economies are sensitive which
are dependent on tourism,
agriculture and forestry: the
Mediterranean region, the Alps,
large parts of Eastern Europe,
but also Scandinavia (energy
demand for heating!)
Europe’s regions and their impact to climatic change
The IPCC defines impact as
“[c]onsequences of climate
change on natural and human
systems.” (IPCC 2007)
Hot spots are mostly in the
South of Europe – i.e. the big
agglomerations and summer
tourist resorts at the coastline.
Other specific types of regions
(e.g. mountains) are particularly
impacted, but partly for other
reasons (sea level rise,
economic dependency on
summer and/or winter tourism).
Adaptive capacity: dimensions and indicators
Adaptive capacity is defined as
“the ability or potential of a
system to respond successfully
to climate variability and
changes“ (IPCC 2007c).
Awareness plays an role in
identifying vulnerabilities and
enable the identification of
adaptation measures.
For moving from awareness to
action, ability is necessary,
which consists of technology and
infrastructure.
Action is supported by economic
resources and institutions that
enable a society to carry out the
adaptation measures that have
been defined.
Vulnerability of European regions to climate change
“Vulnerability is a function of the
character, magnitude, and rate of
climate variation to which a system
is exposed, its sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity” (IPCC 2007).
Particularly those countries which
may expect a high increase in
impact seem to be less able to
adapt than others for which the
problem is less visible.
This scenario for the future runs
counter to territorial cohesion.
Climate change would trigger a
deepening of the existing socioeconomic imbalances between the
core of Europe and its periphery.
Political implications
•
•
•
•
•
Particularly the East of Europe is also affected by demographic
changes, which may lead to an additional increase in sensitivity
and therefore impact. At the same time these demographic
changes would also decrease eastern Europe’s adaptive
capacity.
Territorially differentiated adaptation strategies seem to be
important primarily for tourist resorts in the Mediterranean
region, but also in the Alps, because both types of regions are
identified as particularly vulnerable.
Agglomerations – mainly in the South - have to be mentioned.
They are vulnerable for several reasons, of which urban heat
might be the most relevant one.
Adapting the existing settlement patterns can be seen as the
main challenge for spatial planning operating in the context of
existing private property rights.
Incentives and more inclusive discourse-based approaches are
needed, which can be characterised as ‘climate governance’.