Transcript MultiTransVA_04Dec4_12 - Ministry of Forests, Lands and

Don Morgan
Ecosystem Protection and Sustainability Branch
Ministry of Environment
&
Dave Daust
BV Research Centre
Future Forest Ecosystems Scientific Council (FFESC)
seminar series – December 04, 2012
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1.
Increase our understanding of how forest and range
ecosystems can be expected to change over time as
a result of climate change.
2.
Develop projections to forecast those changes.
3.
Develop methods of adapting forest management
in response to climate change that will help reduce
the impacts on forest and range ecosystems and
productivity.
4.
Research the economics and social consequence to
BC of the changing forest and range ecosystems, and
of the effects of the proposed adaptation options.
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Part 1 – Vulnerability Assessment:

•
Management Unit Vulnerability Assessment
•
Management Unit Adaptation Policy
•
Multi-scale Vulnerability Assessment - linking
Provincial and Regional scales – barriers and
opportunities
 Part
2 – Community Adaptive Capacity:
• Livelihood Assessment - people, resources, the
environment and the changing climate
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Part 1: Vulnerability Assessment
Dave Daust
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[email protected]
Outline
• Overview of change
• Vulnerability Assessment in the
Nadina
• What’s vulnerable?
• What can we do to adapt?
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Mitigation success
Copenhagen Diagnosis 2009.
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Projected warming by 2100
3.4°C > 1961-1990 baseline
(likely range 2.0 – 5.4°C)
A2 emission scenario
(IPCC 2007)
Prince George + 3.7 = Kelowna
(Prov BC. State of British
Columbia’s Forests 3rd Edition)
Northern Hemisphere Temperature
Spittlehouse 2008
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Rate of warming
• 50 X faster than after ice ages
(last million years)
• Faster than migration rates of plants
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Vulnerability Assessment
in the Nadina
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First: What’s vulnerability
Locateli et al. 2010. Forests and adaptation to climate change: challenges and
opportunities (Ch 2). In Forests and Society—Responding to Global Drivers of10
Change
The Nadina Approach
•
•
•
•
Exposure - climate envelope shifts
Management issues - workshops
Sensitivities – expert workshops
Adaptive capacity
– Management responses
– Barriers
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Vulnerability Assessment
Exposure to climate
Sensitivity of Forests
Max potential impacts to FRPA values
Potential management responses
Natural adaptation
Barriers to adaptation
Likely impacts to FRPA values
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Maximum Potential Impact
(what might happen in short term)
Exposure
∆ temp
∆ seasons
∆ rain
∆ snowfall
∆ ice
Sensitivity
Species tolerances
Species competitive
advantage
Impact
Extirpation or
decimation
Invasive species
Forest structure ∆
Regime shift
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Study Area
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Climate Scenarios
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BEC Climate Envelopes
Current
Slightly
warmer
(1.7C)
Warmer
and wetter
(2.6C)
Much
warmer
(3.5C)
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BEC Envelopes (zones)
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Sensitivity: Biodiversity
species tolerances
climate
site type
(moist. & nutr.)
plant
community
other
biodiversity
seral stage
natural
disturbance
animal
community
succession
species interactions
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Low similarity = high stress
Similarity (area weighted mean Bray-Curtis similarity) of plant
communities associated with current versus projected variants.
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Lifeform: SBSdk vs. IDFxh2
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Much warmer
(+3.5 °C)
Warmer &
wetter (+2.6 °C)
Slightly warmer
(+1.7 °C)
Geographic (migration) Distance
SBSdk
SBSmc2
ESSFmc
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Sensitivity: Trees and timber
climate
site conditions
(moist. & nutr.)
regeneration
& growth rate
tree species
maladaptation
surviving
volume
timber supply
natural
disturbance rate
dead volume
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Sensitivity: Disturbance Agents
10
8
6
5-10% of
THLB
Ratio of increase
4
?
2
1
0
Disease
Insects
Fire
Drought
Weather
Disturbance agent
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Sensitivity: Timber
•  tree growth: 10 to 25%
•  unsalvaged loss: 10 to 30%
= Reduced AAC
= High salvage volumes
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climate
logging
road location, design
& maintenance
Sensitivity: Hydrology
disturbance
soil saturation;
toe slope integrity
vegetation
cover (ECA)
road
scour
rainfall
landslides
sediment
bed/bank
scour
peak flow
infrastructure
summer
low flow
riparian management
warm water input
(ditches, logged wet sites)
stream temperature
upstream water bodies
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So What’s Vulnerable?
Water
Communities (Fire)
Salmon
Timber
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Ecosystems
& Livelihoods
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What can we do to adapt?
Learnings & Recommendations
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Limited set of responses
•
•
•
•
•
Conservation network
Unroaded areas
Invasive spp control
Avoid sensitive sites
Alter harvesting of
sensitive sites
• Control insects and
disease
• Harvest susceptible
stands
• Fertilize
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Shorter rotations
Assisted migration
Influence succession
Diversify regen. stands
Rapid site recovery
Retain down wood
ECA
Improve infrastructure
Limit water use
Manage warm water
sources
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Approach to adaptation
A. Reduce sensitivity
B. Limit damage
C. Enhance recovery
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A/C. Reduce sensitivity/enhance recovery
1.
–
–
–
Limit total ecological stress
BC-scale conservation strategy
Cumulative Effects Assessment
Precautionary approach
2. Promote diversity
3. Guide ecological transformation
–
E.g., assisted migration
4. Upgrade infrastructure
5. Harvest susceptible stands
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B. Limit Damage
1.
2.
3.
4.
Monitor
Salvage quickly
Control fire
Control insects, disease and invasive
plants
5. Increase diversity and flexibility of
timber processing
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Vulnerability scale
No management
Potential
Management
response
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Barriers to Adaptation
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Lack of concern
Lack of knowledge
Lack of planning capacity
Lack of mandate/resources
Restrictive legislation &
policy
X
XX
XXX
X to XXX
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1. Lack of Concern
• Not an issue regionally
• May be an issue provincially
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2. Lack of Knowledge
• Not an issue if you conduct a VA
• Uncertainty is high but appropriate
responses are generally clear
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3. Lack of planning capacity
• Public plans out of date
• Inertia of existing plans
• Operational trials needed to support
new planning
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4. Lack of mandate/resource
• Can’t devote time to understand
implications of climate change
• Government does not have the
primary responsibility for strategies
• Companies will not invest in more
expensive or more risky strategies
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5. Restrictive leg & policy
• Counterproductive reforestation
rules
• Public objectives no longer reflect
current issues (i.e., adaptation and
mitigation)
• Strategies unable to achieve
objectives under climate change
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Or?
Sustainability ≠ Arrogance + ignorance
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Removing Barriers
1. Provincial government awareness (business
case)
2. Regional learning programs
•
•
Government climate change adaptation staff
Enduring knowledge base
•
FRPA and LRMP (SLUP)
•
Legislation and policy
3. Revise values and objectives
4. Revise strategies
5. Create incentives for companies
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Increase societal resilience
• Understand risk
–
–
–
–
Fire
Water shortages
Forest industry collapse
Fishing industry collapse
• Enhance community independence
• Enhance support within communities
• Increase economic diversity
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Don Morgan
Ecosystem Protection and Sustainability Branch
Ministry of Environment
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




Climate change impacts and local forest resource
system vulnerability.
Scenario planning workshop held with natural and
social scientists and community.
Sustainable livelihood community workshop.
Application of Integral Theory to Livelihood
Assessment.
Summary of livelihoods and impacts using a
structured approach.
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 Objective
- apply
livelihood methods to
evaluate linkages
among people,
resources, the
environment and the
changing climate.
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“A livelihood comprises the capabilities,
assets (including both material and
social resources) and activities required
for a means of living. A livelihood is
sustainable when it can cope with and
recover from stresses and shocks and
maintain or enhance its capabilities and
assets both now and in the future, while
not undermining the natural resource
base.”
Chambers and Conway (1992)
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Livelihood Assessment
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




Natural capital – natural resource stocks (soil, water,
air, forests, etc.) and environmental services
(hydrological cycle, etc).
Financial capital – the capital base (cash,
credit/debt, savings, etc.).
Human capital –skills, knowledge, ability to labour
and good health.
Social capital – social resources (networks, social
relations, affiliations, associations, organizations, etc.).
Physical capital – infrastructure (roads, railways,
water, schools, manufacturing facilities, etc.).
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 Assets
identified in people’s stories:
• Social - Kinship , ability to market oneself, access to
health care, education, ability to cooperate.
• Financial – ability to purchase, financial capacity skills
• Human - Backup and contingency planning,
preparedness (back up generators, etc.), mobility (cars,
movement, rail, etc.), ability to learn new skills, a deep
sense of resolve
• Environmental - Fertile land, domestic livestock, forests
• Physical - Ropes, ladders, skis, dump trucks, snowplows,
rail/road transport networks, health care system
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Variable
Median Change
Range
Mean temp (annual)
Mean temp (summer)
Mean temp (winter)
Precip (annual)
Precip (summer)*
Precip (winter)
Snowfall (winter)
Snowfall (spring)
Growing degree days
Frost free days
+1.8 °C
+1.6 °C
+1.8 °C
+9%
+2%
+11%
+7%
-52%
+213 (deg x days)
+18 days
+1.3 °C to +2.7 °C
+1.2 °C to +2.8 °C
+0.6 °C to +2.8 °C
+2 to +16%
-7 to +11%
-2 to +21%
-4 to + 16%
-68 to -10%
+127 to 394
+11 to +29
Median and range (90% of outcomes) of climate variables projected for 2055 in the
Bulkley-Nechako Regional District from multiple runs of different climate models using
different emissions scenarios (“ensemble” runs). Source: http://plan2adapt.ca
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o
Chaotic
Drivers:
Responses:
Transformation
• Technological
• Moderately extreme
innovation
• Participatory
governance
• Increase local control
• Decline of
corporatization
• Economy managed
for change
ecological degradation
• Food shortage, local
food production
• Managed climate
migrants
• Poverty
• Population shifts, some
regions with die-offs
5 Rapid
Climate Change
Drivers:
• No new technology
• Low democracy
• Corporate control
• Low global
cooperation
• Business as usual
shift to economic
survival
• Increase military
Oil slow decline (oil remaining)
Drivers:
• Technological
innovation
• Democracy
• Balance between
local/global
• Global agreements
• Economy focus on
sustainability
Pollyanna
Responses:
• Minor ecological
degradation
• Local food production
increases, less global
• Few climate migrants
• High standard of living,
equitable society
• Moderate population
increase
Oh Frick!
Responses:
• Very extreme
ecological degradation
• Food shortage,
variable local food,
famine
• Un-managed random
climate migrants
• Extreme poverty, inequity
• Massive population
decline, disease, ...
Oil drops rapidly (no oil remaining)
Drivers:
• New sequestration
technology
• Low democracy
• Corporate control
• High global
cooperation
• Business as usual
o
1 Moderate
Climate Change
Responses:
• Moderate ecological
degradation
• Global food system
• Few climate migrants
• Global inequity and
class inequity
• High populations
Hail Mary
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Risks &
Hazards
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Risk and Hazard
Superbugs
Fire
Flooding
Water
Power
Transportation
Impact on natural resources (forests)
Food security
Loss of salmon stocks
Human response/disengagement
Participant Ranking
xx
xxxx
xxxx
xx
xxx
x
xxxxx
xxxx
x
x
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Livelihood Assets
Natural
Historic Adaptation Assets
Physical
Social
Current Asset Inventory
Financial
Human
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Collective
Individual
Interior
Exterior
Awareness and Experience
Behaviors
Human capital – knowledge, values,
mindsets, and awareness.
Human capital –skills, ability to labour and
good health.
Culture
Systems
Social capital –cultural resources (social
relations, cultural customs of networking,
traditional custom of ‘helping one’s
neighbour’, cultural resilience to impacts,
etc.).
Natural capital –natural resource stocks (soil,
water, air, forests, etc.) and environmental
services (hydrological cycle, etc).
Economic or financial capital – the capital
base (cash, credit/debt, savings, etc.).
Social capital –social resources (networks,
affiliations, associations, organizations, etc.).
Physical capital – infrastructure (roads,
railways, water, schools, processing and
manufacturing facilities, etc.).
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Individual
Interior
Awareness and Experience
Behaviors
E.g.. Values, mindsets, understanding,
knowledge, motivations, self-identity.
E.g.. Actions, land use practices, lifestyle
choices, health indicators.
Methodologies: psychology,
consciousness studies.
Methodologies: behavioral science,
physical science, and some forms of
psychology such as cognitive and
behavioral psychology.
Systems
Culture
Collective
E.g.. Shared worldviews, social discourse,
cultural norms, traditional customs.
Methodologies: social science, cultural
studies, anthropology, hermeneutics.
Exterior
E.g.. Ecosystems, financial systems,
political and judicial systems,
communication technology systems,
infrastructure systems (i.e.
transportation).
Methodologies: natural sciences,
economics, political science, systems
theory, and so forth.
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Individual
Collective
Interior
Exterior
Awareness and Experience
Actions and Behaviors
Risk-taking
Sandbagging
Attitude of survival and self reliance
Farmers market—skills and actions to create and sustain a
 Has decreased but is better than city (new
market for these local products
assets in people)
Over-harvesting
Flooding, impacts on forests and food security
Propensity to fully utilize products (demonstrates
the value of limiting waste)
Flooding, impacts on forests
Culture
Systems
and food security
Knowledge-skills
Kinship
Available arable land +
Connected to nature
Available water + Regulatory system—this is an area of need
Disconnected from nature—an area of need for
for future resilience, could be positive or negative
future resilience
Existence of a locally owned abattoir for local livestock
Some cultural tendency towards being highly
products
wasteful
Predictive capacity (modeling)
Arrogance in regards to how natural resources are
Presence of a good education system
managed (command and control)
Presence of a good health care system
Mass production
Mechanization (machinery)
 Diversity would go up, but so would the costs
Diverse economy – “not a one-horse town”
for these products
Political decision making—this is an area of need for future
 Limits flexibility
resilience
Diversity of perspectives/talents
 Currently little to no incentive to address climate change
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Hypocrisy
 Designing
with all quadrants in mind interior/exterior – science, self reflection.
 Bringing
together natural and social scientists –
interdisciplinary team, structured facilitation.
 Aligning
climate research as action research –
community participation in research.
 Utilizing
a comprehensive framework to unite
perspectives – integrating facts with meaning.
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Federal
Decision-makers
Provincial
Decision-makers
Regional
Decision-makers
Topic Experts
Topic Experts
Topic Experts
Community
Bulkley Valley Research Centre
Ministry of Forests and Range
(FLNRO)
Ministry of Environment
Future Forest Ecosystem Initiative:
http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hts/Future_F
orests/
Gail Hochachka, Integral Without
Borders
Rick Budhwa, Crossroads Cultural
Resource Management
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