Transcript IPCC - ohchr

Assessment of Vulnerability
to Climate Change
and Human Rights
Presentation by
Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC
Geneva, 22 October 2008
A Progression of Understanding: Greater and Greater
Certainty in Attribution to Human Influence
FAR (1990): “unequivocal
detection not likely for a
decade”
SAR (1995): “balance of
evidence suggests
discernible human
influence”
TAR (2001): “most of the
warming of the
past 50 years is likely
(odds 2 out of 3) due
to human activities”
AR4 (2007): “most of the
warming is very likely
(odds 9 out of 10) due
to anthropogenic
greenhouse gases”
FAR
AR4
SAR
TAR
IPCC
Distribution of regional per capita
GHG emissions in 2004
IPCC
Surface Warming Pattern
A1B, 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999
IPCC
Crop responses depend on latitude
High latitude:
- production increases with 1-3°C rise
in local mean temperature
- decreases above 1-3°C rise.
Low latitude:
- Production decreases with 1-2°C rise in
local mean temperatures
- Increased drought/flood frequency affect
especially subsistence sectors at low latitudes
IPCC
Impacts on crops and lifestock
Projected impacts on water resources
By mid-century river runoff and water availability
- increase by 10-40% at high latitudes, some wet tropics
- decrease by 10-30% over dry mid-latitudes and dry tropics
Drought-affected areas will likely increase in extent.
More heavy precipitation events will augment flood risk.
In the course of the century, water supplies stored in glaciers
and snow cover are projected to decline, reducing water
availability in regions where more than one-sixth of the world
population currently lives.
IPCC
Climate change could impede nations’
abilities to achieve sustainable development
Human settlements and low-lying areas
- Risks associated with extreme events
- High vulnerability in riverine and
coastal areas
- Urbanization often in high risk areas
- Millions of people could experience more
coastal flooding if Δ T > 2oC in this century.
- Impacts exacerbated by storms,
coral bleaching, degradation of coastal wetlands
and increased human-induced pressures
Sea level rise is inevitable !
IPCC
Megadeltas – particularly vulnerable
The health status of millions of people is
projected to be affected
• Increases in malnutrition
• Increased deaths, diseases and injury due to extreme
weather events
• Increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases
• Increased frequency of cardio-respiratory diseases due to
changes in air quality
• Altered spatial distribution of
some infectious diseases.
IPCC
Distribution of Impacts
- Sharp differences across regions
- Low-latitude and less-developed areas
generally face greater risk
- Those in weakest economic position are often
the most vulnerable to climate change
- Greater vulnerability of specific groups such as
poor and elderly - also in developed countries
Multiple non-climate stresses increase vulnerability
IPCC
Analytical Tools
• Scenario driven impacts analysis
• Provides broad overview
• Vulnerability assessment
• Broadened to include social vulnerability
• Adaptation based approach
• Examine adaptive capacity and improve resilience
• Key vulnerabilities – long term goal Art.2 UNFCCC
• Magnitude, timing, persistence and reversibility,
likelihood of occurrence, potential for adaptation,
distribution of impacts and importance of system at risk
Risk-management framework
Risk - defined by magnitude and
probability of occurrence
Captures
• uncertainty
• exposure
• sensitivity
• adaptation
Risk-management framework
• Assignment of probabilities to specific key impacts –
can be very difficult
• Mitigation reduces risks, delay in action increases
risks
• Adaptation reduces risk of negative impacts
• More difficult to adapt to larger magnitudes and faster
rates of warming
• Some impacts cannot be avoided – sea level rise,
loss of species
• Climate change in context of socio-economic
baseline
Vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation
GHG Stabilization and Temperature
The lower the stabilization, the earlier global GHG should go down
IPCC
Impacts by sector
Way forward
• Identify vulnerable areas and communities
• Identify driving forces that enhance or reduce
vulnerability
• Develop adaptation plans – bottom up and top down,
use local coping capacity
• Analysis of synergies and trade-offs of adaptation
and mitigation measures – on case by case basis
• Food prices, degradation of natural habitat, employment,
• Assessment of attribution of damages and of avoided
damages
• Address question of insurance
Nobel Peace Prize 2007
IPCC together with Mr Gore
« for their efforts to build up and
disseminate greater knowledge
about man-made climate
change, and to lay the
foundations for the measures
that are needed to counteract
such change"