Transcript Participatory Rapid Integrated Assessment of Vulnerability

Need for National Integrated
Assessment Models for Adaptation
and Emphasis on Local Coping and
Indigenous Technologies
Dr. Paul V. Desanker
Penn State University, USA & Miombo
Network (Malawi)
[email protected]
Self Introduction
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Assoc Prof of Geography, Penn State University, USA
Founding member and Coordinator, IGBP/LUCC/START
Miombo Network since 1994
CLA IPCC TAR WGII Africa Chapter
LDC NAPA Technical Development Team
Member of IPCC TGCIA
Research on integrated assessment of climate change, in
particular, extremes, in southern African Miombo region
(Malawi, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique)
Tool development for rapid assessment of vulnerability and
adaptation (PRIVA) in LDCs under NAPA or at any level
Research on Land use/land cover change and impacts,
and role in adaptation COP-9 Presessessional on IPCC
Integrated Assessment
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Past models mostly global, and emphasize impacts
conditional on emission pathways – adaptations not explicit
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Global nature require that developing regions be aggregated,
into one or very few subregions for Africa despite large size
and great diversity in factors controlling vulnerability
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Global integrated assessment models have been very useful
in framing the climate change issue, such as the
comprehensive assessments of the IPCC such as under
SRES (IPCC 2000)
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Global conclusions not necessarily compatible with regional
and national conclusions
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Global Versus National or Local
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Global conclusions not necessarily compatible with regional
and national conclusions
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For example, take Food Security, globally can conclude that
the world will produce enough food to feed its population
HOWEVER, the conclusions are very different for national
and local levels.
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And for water, modeling studies that look at major river flows
are not applicable to major water requirements where
reliance is on underground water or non-river based sources
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In any case, Africa short-changed by studies that can not
resolve national levels; as well as due consideration of other
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problems facing Africa: COP-9
health,
poverty, globalization,
subsidies, etc
Needs for Integrated Assessments in Africa
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Assessment of impacts needed at local to national level,
including explicit representation of costs and benefits to
guide decision making
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This is not the same as re-framing global to continental
assessments at the national and local level
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Important decisions are made at global (in relation to the
UNFCCC process) or at the national level for national
planning and local implementation
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This requires that information be produced for each country
in relation to local, regional and global linkages as
appropriate
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What is the Miombo Network
doing about this?
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Case studies of local coping to floods
and droughts – documenting
experiences and results
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Developing participatory rapid
integrated V&A (PRIVA) for use in
NAPA
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Linking impacts to vulnerability
in PRIVA
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V(climatic hazard)
F{
=
Risk (climatic hazard) ;
Impact Potential (
Sensitivity (hazard)
Coping Range (system_f(climate));
Coping Ability (determinants|hazard))
}
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Framing Adaptation in PRIVA in
terms of Eqn 2
Define adaptation to minimize vulnerability through any
of the following:
 By reducing the risk associated with hazards by
manipulating components of risk
 (Removing/reducing hazard through mitigation is
outside domain of analysis for the LDCs)
 Reduce impact potential through manipulation of the
system dependence on climate (cropping
manipulations for instance)
 By increasing coping ability (e.g addressing key
determinants such as poverty, access to financial
resources, etc)
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NAPA Process (from NAPA Primer, Desanker et al. 2003)
Level I
Build Multidisciplinary
NAPA Teams
Level II
Level III
Define Goals and Criteria,
Review Policies & Identify
Synergies
Collate Available
Data & Information
Identify Hazards,
Risks and Coping
Synthesize Available
Vulnerability Assessments
Identify Climatic
Hazards
Information
Adequate?
Conduct Participatory
Assessment to Identify
Urgent Adaptation
Options
Conduct
Participatory Rapid
Integrated
Assessment of
Vulnerability
Select Highly
Vulnerable Sectors,
Systems& SubRegions
Characterize Risk
Characterize Coping
Ability
Select Priority
Adaptation Needs using
Participatory Approach
Identify Urgent
Adaptation Options
Characterize
Vulnerability
Rank Projects &
Activities
Develop Project Profiles, Show
Integration into National Policy
Frameworks & Projects & Submit NAPA
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Figure 1. Main steps in a participatory process of developing National Adaptation Programmes of Action. Where adequate information exists to complete a
NAPA, the country would use the steps under Level I, otherwise hey would conduct synthesis or even data limited data analysis by including Levels II and III.
Climate Change Extremes and Coping Range
Current Climate
Changed Climate
Transition period –
NAPA domain
Climatic
Attribute
(X)
Time (years)
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Current Coping Range
Cascading or nested spatial scales
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Apply PRIVA in successive spatial scales until issue is
manageable – in relation to stakeholders, or in terms of
funding limitations
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For example, apply at national level to identify/select most
vulnerable regions and systems or sectors or communities
(“hotspots”)
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Can then re-apply PRIVA for the selected regions
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Iterate until can identify clear actions (adaptation activities)
that are easily implementable and address specific
communities/locations (action-orientedness, etc)
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Adaptation – a local level process
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Makes sense when localized in implementation, while ideally
taking into account (unknown) global forcing of climate
hazards
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Inherent uncertainty in climate projections implies decision
making in adaptation not trivial: need application of
appropriate decision frameworks
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For the short term, expect transient changes, so enhance
coping as one strategy
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major improvements in predictions/projects to identify
general direction of hazard and risk
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Local Coping and Indigenous Technologies
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Our studies in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi and Mozambique
under AIACC, indicate
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Diversity of local coping to immediate problems associated with
erratic rains, persistent droughts, increased flooding, etc.
Examples include staggered planting of main food crops to improve
likelihood of a good harvest; change in crop species planted; shift to
buying food versus local production; water harvesting techniques
Most of these decisions made at community level without
comprehensive assessments of costs and benefits, or explicit
consideration of what future changes might be
Danger that climate will continue to change, and may results in total
breakdown of local production systems. NEED MORE CASE
STUDIES TO INTEGRATED CONVENTIONAL AND LOCAL
KNOWLEDGE
Elsewhere, indigenous technologies exist to cope with
persistent adverse climatic conditions.
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Qanat:
(Kariz/ Surangam/ Foggara/ Falaj)
Centre for Sustainable Development
CENESTA, Iran
M.R HAERI
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Tausug house with rainwater collection system, Philipines
Priorities for improving the state
of knowledge & information exchange in Integrated
Assessment
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Need data on costs and benefits of specific
adaptation activities including EIAs to evaluate
long-term sustainability
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Need more implementations of national integrated
models to address adaptation planning, to include
due consideration of policy issues, synergies with
other MEAs, multiple stresses, etc
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Need regional balance in discussion and
development of these tools and analyses
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Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what
specific actions or activities from this body
could help address the issues 1/3.
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Encourage targeted research in the development of
regional integrated models that emphasize vulnerability,
risk assessment and local community needs.
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Encourage sharing of knowledge and experiences with
integrated assessment for the developing countries,
especially at the regional level through regional workshops
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Regional networks are invaluable in reaching national and
regional decision makers, managers and scientists, there is
need to encourage work of these networks and encourage
development of new networks where none exist.
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Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what
specific actions or activities from this body
could help address the issues 2/3.
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Facilitate exchange of experiences on local coping
and indigenous technologies especially between
countries/regions along a path of possible future
change: e.g. historically flooded areas with new
areas subject to repeated floods; also for droughts
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Facilitate EIA of technologies and activities
especially for adaptation to safeguard against maladaptation and to build sustainable adaptation
solutions
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Relevance to the work of the SBSTA, and what
specific actions or activities from this body
could help address the issues 3/3.
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While no one-size-fits all, there are a small set of
adaptations to floods and droughts – such as changing
crop types and planting;
there is need to thoroughly assess how this can be done
effectively taking into account uncertainties in climate
predictions (seasonal and long-term); risks in decision
making at local and national levels, strategies to minimize
risk of failure, research needed to ensure proper hybrids
and provenances of species are available (do this beyond
spatial assessments of crop suitability that are easily done
using GIS),
and go beyond generic prescriptions
such as “change crops”
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as an adaptation.