Transcript a klímaváltozás és a megújuló energiák kölcsönhatása

CLIMATE CHANGE IN NUTSHELL
János MIKA
Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest
Eszterházy Károly College, Eger, HUNGARY
ATEE 2010, Budapest,
Apropos’ Climate Change
Pre-Conference Workshop
August 26, 2010
THREE ASPECTS, ONLY
• Why science states, climate change is mainly anthropogenic?
• Where should we stop the warming, and how?
„AVOIDING THE UNMANAGEABLE”*
• How could we adapt to the changes?
„MANAGING THE UNAVOIDABLE” *
*2007 February 27:
1. SCIENCE
Our knowledge on the climate system and the external forcings describes the past!
IPCC AR4, 2007 –simulation with (red) and without (blue) anthropogenic factors
Stagnating integrated solar irradiation since 1960
Internal fluctuations rarely lead
to long-term and rapid changes
GCMs (IPCC, 2001)
Paleoclimate reconstruction
What is forecasted ?
Wide range of
global mean
temperature
but warming
in all scenarios.
(IPCC, 2007)
Figure SPM.5
+0,5 oC even in case of constant atmospheric composition.
Most likely: +1,4 - 4,2 oC, whole known uncertainty: 1,1 – 6,4 oC
Figure 1: Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil Fuels
Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009 (inofficial IPCC-supplement)
2. MITIGATION
MITIGATION: AT LEAST TO AVOID CRITICAL JUMPS (‘’TIPPING POINTS’’)
How to mitigate? (1)
CO2 = Population x (GDP/capita) x (TPES/GDP) x (CO2/TPES)
How to mitigate? (2)
No single solution, all alternatives may contribute to the target.
IPCC WG-III, 2007: Fig. 3.23
3. IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION
Rather variable impacts even within Europe
Changes in annual mean precipitation on the
Lake Balaton watershed
1955 - 1984
1975 – 2004 (inc. 2000-2003))
OBSERVED TRENDS IN A GLOBALLY WARMING PERIOD
Even the seemingly obvious trends are not uniform for the extremes!
Climate Change Extremes and Coping Range
Current Climate
Changed Climate
Climatic
Attribute
(X)
Time (years)
Coping Range
What is worth doing: adjust the thresholds
to expected changes of the mean, at least!
Conclusion:
• Anthropogenic origin of the recent global warming is very
likely (i.e. >90 %, IPCC, 2007). No better news ocurred
ever since (e.g. Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009).
• The warming should be as early as possible, but by all
means before 3 K compared to the initial state to avoid
unmanagable critical jumps. There are many opportunities
for that but none of them is easy, cheap or surely more
effective, than the other ones.
• Impacts of the changes vary regionally and the adaptation
needs also regional research and planning. The extremes
do not universally become more frequent, or rapid, but we
must gradually adjust our concepts and thresholds and
ways of using climate information to the ongoing changes.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
[email protected]